中东正在引发全球化工行业“大范围不可抗力”

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中东冲突持续升级，霍尔木兹海峡受阻正在将一场地缘政治危机转化为全球化工行业的系统性供应冲击。据追风交易台，据摩根士丹利3月13日发布的最新不可抗力追踪报告，自伊朗冲突爆发以来，全球主要化工产品的不可抗力声明已呈现出跨地区、跨品类的连锁蔓延态势，涉及乙烯、丙烯、聚乙烯、聚丙烯、PVC及液化天然气等核心品类，波及企业遍及中国、日本、韩国、新加坡、印度尼西亚、波兰、德国、科威特、沙特阿拉伯及卡塔尔等多个...

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industry","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PP":1,"TPC":1,"EG":1},"content_text":"中东冲突持续升级，霍尔木兹海峡受阻正在将一场地缘政治危机转化为全球化工行业的系统性供应冲击。据追风交易台，据摩根士丹利3月13日发布的最新不可抗力追踪报告，自伊朗冲突爆发以来，全球主要化工产品的不可抗力声明已呈现出跨地区、跨品类的连锁蔓延态势，涉及乙烯、丙烯、聚乙烯、聚丙烯、PVC及液化天然气等核心品类，波及企业遍及中国、日本、韩国、新加坡、印度尼西亚、波兰、德国、科威特、沙特阿拉伯及卡塔尔等多个国家和地区。现货市场已率先作出反应——北美乙烯现货价格较2月最后一周上涨24.0%，北美丙烯上涨12.8%，北美聚丙烯现货价格更飙升25.0%。摩根士丹利指出，原料可得性是当前最关键的瓶颈。若冲突持续、霍尔木兹海峡长期无法通行，中东及亚洲地区的开工率可能进一步下滑，即便部分企业未正式宣布不可抗力，实际产能损失也将持续扩大。烯烃与原料：不可抗力浪潮的第一波冲击烯烃产业链是本轮不可抗力声明的重灾区。据摩根士丹利报告，截至3月12日，全球乙烯产能中已有3.9%处于不可抗力状态，丙烯为3.2%，两者均较3月6日的追踪数据增加约1.7个百分点。从地区分布看，冲击最为集中的是东南亚和中欧。东南亚乙烯产能受影响比例高达20.4%，中欧乙烯产能受影响比例达60.2%。具体声明方面，台塑石化于3月9日宣布其麦寮烯烃部门进入不可抗力状态，原因是中东冲突升级导致石脑油供应中断，涉及约293万吨/年乙烯产能及243万吨/年丙烯产能，所有生产设施将以最低产能运行。新加坡Aster  Chemicals and  Energy于3月6日宣布不可抗力，涉及115万吨/年乙烯、50万吨/年丙烯及29万吨/年苯，原因是霍尔木兹海峡海上运输严重受阻导致原料供应中断，裂解装置负荷率降至约50%。泰国Rayong  Olefins、新加坡PCS、韩国Yeochun NCC(YNCC)亦相继宣布不可抗力，均指向石脑油或丙烷采购受阻。德国OMV在布尔格豪森的装置则因原油蒸馏单元技术问题宣布不可抗力，涉及48.5万吨/年乙烯、22.5万吨/年丙烯及7万吨/年丁二烯。波兰Orlen在普沃茨克宣布70万吨/年乙烯、38.5万吨/年丙烯及7万吨/年丁二烯进入不可抗力，但原因及开工率尚不明确。聚烯烃与下游聚合物：供应链断裂向下游传导不可抗力声明正沿产业链向下游快速传导。据摩根士丹利报告，全球聚乙烯(PE)产能中已有1.4%处于不可抗力状态，聚丙烯(PP)为1.0%，两者较上一期追踪数据分别增加0.8和1.0个百分点。台湾台塑于3月12日宣布石化产品不可抗力，理由是乙烯、丙烯等关键原料短缺叠加霍尔木兹海峡封锁造成的物流延误，摩根士丹利估算受影响的东北亚PE产能约为97万吨/年。LyondellBasell宣布其欧洲子公司Basell  Sales & Marketing Company及Rotterdam Olefins &  Polyolefins的聚烯烃销售进入不可抗力，理由是中东冲突引发的市场不确定性及原料采购困难，但摩根士丹利认为该公司合同条款及荷兰民法典的保护使其实际生产所受影响相对有限。新加坡The  Polyolefins  Company(TPC)亦宣布不可抗力，称其上游供应商PCS受霍尔木兹海峡局势冲击，多条生产线被迫停产，涉及约27万吨/年PE及62.5万吨/年PP。印度尼西亚PT Chandra Asri Pacific  Tbk于3月2日宣布75.5万吨/年PE及59万吨/年PP进入不可抗力，原因同样指向霍尔木兹海峡安全局势导致的海运及原料配送中断。现货价格方面，北美PE现货价格较2月最后一周平均上涨15.1%，北美PP上涨25.0%；西欧PE上涨8.6%，西欧PP上涨7.1%。氯碱与乙烯基产品：中国企业集中宣布不可抗力氯碱及乙烯基产品链是本轮不可抗力声明中中国企业参与最为集中的领域。据摩根士丹利报告，全球PVC产能中已有5.2%处于不可抗力状态，VCM为5.4%，EDC为6.4%，烧碱为1.4%，上述数据均为本轮追踪中的新增量。天津渤化化工发展于3月11日宣布不可抗力，涉及90.5万吨/年烧碱、150万吨/年EDC、129万吨/年VCM及137万吨/年PVC，公司表示因中东冲突导致上游原料供应商已正式宣布不可抗力，自身生产和经营遭受严重突发性中断。天津LG渤海于3月10日宣布不可抗力，涉及28万吨/年烧碱、64万吨/年EDC、35万吨/年VCM及40万吨/年PVC，原因为霍尔木兹海峡封锁导致原料供应中断，生产将逐步减少。台塑同样在氯碱链条上宣布不可抗力，摩根士丹利估算涉及约179.2万吨/年EDC、164万吨/年VCM及119万吨/年PVC。印度尼西亚Sulfindo  Adiusaha于3月9日宣布不可抗力，涉及33.6万吨/年烧碱、37万吨/年EDC、13万吨/年VCM及11万吨/年PVC。欧洲INEOS  Inovyn亦宣布对出口客户的PVC进入不可抗力。LNG及其他产品：中东本地生产首当其冲中东本地生产设施直接遭受冲击，LNG供应链受到尤为严重的打击。卡塔尔能源于3月2日宣布其位于拉斯拉凡工业城的全部77.4百万吨/年LNG业务进入不可抗力，原因是拉斯拉凡工业城遭受袭击后生产停止。印度Petronet  LNG随即于3月5日宣布LNG接收不可抗力，与其供应商卡塔尔能源的声明相呼应。科威特EQUATE宣布115万吨/年乙二醇(EG)进入不可抗力，原因是霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致货物配送中断，EG-2装置此前已暂停运行。沙特Sadara  Chemical  Company宣布18万吨/年乙醇胺及20万吨/年乙二醇醚进入不可抗力，结束时间取决于霍尔木兹海峡航运限制的解除。巴林石油公司(BAPCO)在其炼油综合体遭受袭击后宣布约37.98万吨三类基础油进入不可抗力。科威特苯乙烯公司(TKSC)宣布约52.5万吨苯乙烯单体进入不可抗力。摩根士丹利指出，鉴于冲突局势仍具高度流动性，上述追踪可能并未涵盖所有正在发生的停产情况，投资者需持续关注局势演变对全球化工供应链的进一步冲击。本文转载自“华尔街见闻”，作者：赵颖；智通财经编辑：严文才。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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