抖音摸着京东外卖过河

蓝鲸财经03-13

文｜超聚焦2026年的外卖大战，仍未结束。去年美团、淘宝闪购、京东在即时零售赛道打得不可开交时，抖音和拼多多没掺和。2026年开年，阿里在内部会上表示将继续加大对淘宝闪购的投入，“三年内不要有亏损的负担”；京东表示今年外卖业务总投入将比去年有所降低，但仍要努力把市场份额从15%做到30%。连抖音生活服务都出手将旗下"随心团"更名为"抖音即送"，继续以"到店验券"与"配送到家"双模式推进外卖业务。...

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River","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"JD":1.91,"09618":1.91},"content_text":"文｜超聚焦2026年的外卖大战，仍未结束。去年美团、淘宝闪购、京东在即时零售赛道打得不可开交时，抖音和拼多多没掺和。2026年开年，阿里在内部会上表示将继续加大对淘宝闪购的投入，“三年内不要有亏损的负担”；京东表示今年外卖业务总投入将比去年有所降低，但仍要努力把市场份额从15%做到30%。连抖音生活服务都出手将旗下\"随心团\"更名为\"抖音即送\"，继续以\"到店验券\"与\"配送到家\"双模式推进外卖业务。这一更名并非简单的品牌迭代。此前一个月，抖音上线了独立团购App“抖省省”，将主站的团购到店业务剥离出来。两步棋接连落下，抖音在本地生活服务领域的战略意图已然清晰：到店业务独立运营，外卖业务换牌再战。然而，\"抖音即送\"的策略选择却颇具争议，它选择了学京东做\"品质外卖\"，仅邀请连锁品牌入驻，主打可堂食品质外卖。这条路径，究竟是抖音深思熟虑后的差异化突围，还是一次战略上的\"拜错师傅\"？01迟到的入场券抖音做外卖，并非心血来潮。早在2022年，抖音就开始涉足本地生活服务，尝试团购业务。到2023年，抖音外卖业务低调上线，但始终未能形成规模效应。彼时，抖音外卖采用的是\"团购+配送\"模式，即用户在抖音上下单团购券，可以选择到店核销或配送到家。这一模式与美团、饿了么的核心外卖业务存在本质区别，前者更像是\"团购外卖化\"，后者才是真正的即时配送。2025年，外卖市场迎来了最激烈的竞争。美团、淘宝闪购、京东三家平台在用户补贴、商家资源、履约能力上全面开战。摩根大通调研数据显示，以去年11月补贴退潮后，美团守住50%的基本盘，饿了么+淘宝闪购凭借生态协同冲到42%，京东则快速滑落至8%。在这场硝烟弥漫的外卖大战中，抖音选择了观望。这种\"三心二意\"的态度，或许源于字节跳动对自身基因的清醒认知，内容流量能否高效转化为交易订单，始终是一个悬而未决的问题。但到了2026年，抖音终于下定决心。先是上线了一款独立团购App\"抖省省\"，将主站的团购到店业务剥离出来，形成一个独立的交易入口。而后将\"随心团\"更名为\"抖音即送\"，同时支持\"到店验券\"与\"配送到家\"两种模式，且对商家准入的门槛并未放松，目前可配送门店大多仍为连锁品牌，主打可堂食品质外卖。这一系列动作表明，抖音正在对本地生活业务进行系统性重构：到店业务与到家业务分轨运行，各司其职。这一战略定位，与京东外卖高度重合。从数据层面看，\"随心团\"确实交出了一份不错的成绩单。据抖音生活服务方面公布的数据，截至2025年12月初，\"随心团\"参与品牌已超3000家，2025年四季度连锁商家\"随心团\"支付GMV较同年一季度日均提升211%。业务覆盖多个餐饮品类，华莱士、锅圈食汇等连锁品牌均有不错的销售表现。但GMV的增长能否转化为可持续的市场份额，还不好下定论。02品质外卖不好走当所有平台都聚焦品质外卖时，抖音的差异化优势就会被弱化。2025年，美团和饿了么纷纷加码品质赛道。美团推出\"神抢手\"促销频道，每月投入超1亿元补贴优质商家，试点\"浣熊食堂\"透明厨房项目，强化品质标签。美团实施\"明厨亮灶\"计划，鼓励商家直播后厨，提高\"神枪手\"商家准入标准，严格审核商家资质。饿了么启动\"优店腾跃计划\"，投入超10亿元助力商家数字化转型清退违规商户，利用AI技术打击\"幽灵外卖\"。京东从一开始就避开与美团、淘宝闪购在价格敏感型用户市场的正面交锋，聚焦高客单价、高品质的细分市场。首批合作门店中，品牌连锁占比超60%设立\"线下门店+大众点评4.0分\"的准入门槛。这种严格的商家筛选机制，直接击中了外卖行业的痛点食品安全、\"幽灵厨房\"、低质商家泛滥。艾瑞咨询数据显示，京东外卖在2025年取得了显著增长，日均订单量突破2500万单，覆盖全国350个城市，用户数超过2.4亿，在品质外卖细分领域占据45%的市场份额。然而，亮眼数据的背后，是京东付出的巨大代价。财报数据显示，京东全年营收首次跨过1.3万亿元大关，同比增长13%，但净利润却出现大幅下滑，同比暴跌52.7%，仅剩196亿元。利润缩水的主要原因是京东在外卖等新业务上的巨额投入，2025年这些新业务的经营利润亏损高达466.4亿元，直接拖累了整体盈利表现。这说明了一个关键问题：品质外卖这条路，走得通，但不好走。在这种背景下，\"抖音即送\"如何建立差异化优势？仅靠\"内容种草\"能撑起外卖业务的增长吗？03学其形还是学其神？抖音选择学京东做品质外卖，表面上看是顺势而为，但深究起来，却存在诸多\"水土不服\"的问题。京东外卖的成功，除了差异化定位外，还有两个关键要素。一是强大的供应链和物流能力。京东的核心竞争力是什么？物流。在电商领域，京东物流以\"快\"和\"稳\"著称。这种履约能力，在外卖领域同样适用。外卖的本质是即时零售，核心竞争要素之一就是配送效率和服务质量。美团外卖的平均配送时长已压缩至34分钟以内，依托的是其强大的AI调度系统和无人机配送技术。淘宝闪购背靠饿了么和蜂鸟配送，同样具备成熟的履约网络，京东外卖则依托自身物流的基础设施和配送网络，在即时配送领域深耕多年，三方差距不明显。而抖音目前并没有自建的履约网络，主要依赖顺丰同城、达达、闪送、UU跑腿等第三方配送平台。这意味着抖音在履约时效、服务一致性、成本控制等方面都处于被动地位。在品质外卖市场，用户对配送时效和服务体验的要求更高，抖音能否在这条短板上实现突破，是一个巨大的问号。胡雪之前就碰到一次配送事故，后来她就再也没用过抖音外卖了。“中午11点下单的午饭，12点40都没到，打电话说13点客服联系解决，等到晚上八点多了，没看到外卖也没客服联系，结果订单显示晚上七点多配送完成了，也没有渠道可以申请退款，太坑了。”二是低佣金策略，京东外卖对商家实行长期佣金费率不超过5%的政策显著低于行业平均水平。同时，京东投入超百亿元扶持品质商家。这种\"让利\"策略，吸引了大量优质商家入驻。更关键的是，京东外卖与京东主站生态深度融合，反哺了京东超市、京东到家等业务，提升了PLUS会员的活跃度和复购率。高频外卖带动低频电商消费，形成了正向循环。\"抖音即送\"采用学京东做品质外卖的策略，仅邀请连锁品牌入驻、门槛较高，这就意味着无法覆盖下沉市场和价格敏感型用户，受众会被大幅压缩。数据显示，美团外卖年活跃用户已接近5亿，淘宝闪购日活用户规模达2亿。而京东外卖虽然用户数超过2.4亿，但主要集中在品质消费群体。虽然抖音生活服务业务已经积累了3000多家连锁品牌，但与美团、淘宝闪购的商家覆盖相比，仍有巨大差距。更重要的是，品质外卖对商家的堂食能力、出餐效率、包装质量都有更高要求，抖音能否说服足够多的优质商家入驻并持续投入运营，是一道难题。京东是电商基因，用户打开京东就是为了购物，交易链路天然顺畅。抖音则是内容基因，用户打开抖音是为了娱乐、刷视频，交易只是\"顺带\"的事。这意味着，抖音外卖“内容触达→兴趣激发→决策下单→履约配送”的转化漏斗天然比京东更长、更复杂。每一个环节的转化率都会大打折扣。当然，抖音也有自己的逻辑，到店用户有机会转化为外卖用户，这会降低转化成本。但前提是，抖音已经积累了足够大的到店用户池。从\"抖省省\"独立App的推出可以看出，抖音正在尝试将到店业务与内容流量进行物理隔离，这本身就说明内容流量与交易场景之间存在某种内在冲突。如果这些答案都不明确，那么抖音外卖很可能沦为\"内容种草\"的附庸，成为抖音生活服务业务的一个补充，而非独立的增长引擎。抖音学京东做外卖，未必拜错师傅。但它俩一个没基因，一个没骑手，为了那不到20%的市场份额，不知还要使尽多少手段。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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