环球下周看点：全球聚焦中东冲突走向超级央行周重磅来袭

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投资者将在未来一周寻求明确信号，以判断中东冲突在多大程度上搅乱了今年对美联储以及其他央行降息的预期，同时他们也在为可能撼动市场的伊朗战争最新进展做好准备。在伊朗战争持续升级引发油价飙升，并对全球各类资产产生连锁影响的背景下，美联储政策制定者将在下周召开会议。在为期两天的会议上，美联储官员将评估这场能源冲击对通胀和经济增长的影响，美联储还将公布最新经济预测。目前，由于战争因素，市场对今年降息的预期...

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Strike","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1.86,"GOVT":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TLTW":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":1.86,"NVDB":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"IEI":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"UPRO":0.6},"content_text":"投资者将在未来一周寻求明确信号，以判断中东冲突在多大程度上搅乱了今年对美联储以及其他央行降息的预期，同时他们也在为可能撼动市场的伊朗战争最新进展做好准备。在伊朗战争持续升级引发油价飙升，并对全球各类资产产生连锁影响的背景下，美联储政策制定者将在下周召开会议。在为期两天的会议上，美联储官员将评估这场能源冲击对通胀和经济增长的影响，美联储还将公布最新经济预测。目前，由于战争因素，市场对今年降息的预期已经大幅降温，而此前对降息的期待一直是支撑股市多头情绪的重要因素。Edward Jones高级全球投资策略师Angelo Kourkafas表示：“美联储将成为市场关注的核心，尤其是在当前市场已经明显下调降息预期的情况下。”自伊朗战争爆发以来，美国股指持续走低，市场波动率明显上升。投资者密切关注油价的剧烈波动，本周初美国原油价格一度飙升至接近每桶120美元，周五则回落至市场高度关注的100美元附近。伊朗方面表示，全球应做好油价升至200美元的准备。美国周五轰炸了伊朗石油出口枢纽哈尔克岛，不过仅针对岛上的军事设施。特朗普威胁称，如果伊朗继续干扰霍尔木兹海峡的船只通行，他将会摧毁岛上的石油基础设施。分析人士指出，哈尔克岛是伊朗政府和军方财政收入的关键来源，如果伊朗失去对哈尔克岛的控制，该国的国家运转将面临严重困难。因此，如果该岛能源设施遭到打击，将产生重大的经济影响。伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，若伊朗能源设施遭到袭击，伊朗将予以回应。他声称，如伊朗相关设施成为攻击目标，伊朗方面可能将打击美国在地区内的企业设施，或美国持有股份的相关公司。TD Wealth首席投资策略师Sid Vaidya表示：“市场正在剧烈波动，交易员几乎对任何关于伊朗冲突的消息——无论是利好还是利空，都会迅速作出反应。”市场普遍预计，美联储将在当地时间周三公布的政策声明中连续第二次会议维持利率不变。去年，美联储曾下调利率以支撑走弱的劳动力市场，但在今年1月暂停了宽松周期，因为当时认为就业和通胀风险均有所缓解。投资者此前普遍预计今年还会有更多降息，这通常被视为利好股票等风险资产。但随着能源价格飙升可能推高通胀，市场已经下调了对降息的预期。截至周五，联邦基金利率期货定价显示，市场预计到12月降息幅度略低于一次标准的25个基点。而在战争爆发前的2月底，市场原本预计今年将降息两次。在本次会议上，美联储还将发布政策制定者更新后的经济预测，其中包括他们对未来利率、通胀以及就业市场的预期。Murphy & Sylvest市场策略师Paul Nolte表示：“这次会议很可能为今年的政策基调定下方向，特别是如何看待由油价上涨引发的通胀压力。”对鲍威尔来说，这将是他任期内倒数第二次主持美联储会议，他的主席任期将在5月到期。下一次利率调整可能要等到特朗普提名的美联储主席人选、前美联储理事凯文·沃什正式接掌央行之后才会发生。除了美联储之外，欧洲央行、日本央行、加拿大央行、澳洲联储及英国央行均将发布利率决议。中东战争导致能源价格大幅飙升，令各国央行决策者忧心忡忡。财报方面，仅阿里巴巴、小鹏汽车、美光科技、联邦快递和埃森哲等少数几家公司值得关注。下周一至周四，英伟达将举行年度GTC大会，可能再次把市场焦点带回人工智能主题交易。今年早些时候，AI概念曾引发科技股及其他股票的大幅波动。据悉，英伟达准备在GTC大会上揭晓其面向智能体AI优化的CPU新细节，一款纯CPU机架很可能亮相展厅。据英伟达官方介绍，除了黄仁勋周一演讲的两个小时外，GTC公园将全程举行“搭建龙虾”活动，与会者可以在现场部署一个始终在线的AI助手。不过，投资者普遍预计，与伊朗相关的地缘政治消息仍将是市场的主导因素。LPL Financial首席技术策略师Adam Turnquist写道：“市场走势仍将被新闻标题驱动，因为投资者正等待美国何时退出中东冲突的更清晰信号。”下周重要事件概览：周一(3月16日)： 中国1-2月社会消费品零售总额同比、中国1-2月规模以上工业增加值同比、加拿大2月CPI月率、美国3月纽约联储制造业指数、美国2月工业产出月率、国新办就国民经济运行情况举行新闻发布会周二(3月17日)： 澳大利亚至3月17日澳洲联储利率决定、欧元区3月ZEW经济景气指数、美国2月咨商会领先指标月率、美国2月成屋签约销售指数月率周三(3月18日)： 美国至3月13日当周API原油库存、欧元区2月CPI年率终值、美国2月PPI年率、美国2月PPI月率、加拿大至3月18日央行利率决定、美国1月工厂订单月率、美国至3月13日当周EIA原油库存、美国至3月13日当周EIA战略石油储备库存周四(3月19日)： 美国至3月18日美联储利率决定、美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会、中国2月Swift人民币在全球支付中占比、英国2月失业率、瑞士央行公布利率决议、美国至3月14日当周初请失业金人数、欧洲央行公布利率决议、美国至3月13日当周EIA天然气库存、日本至3月19日央行目标利率、日本央行行长植田和男召开货币政策新闻发布会周五(3月20日)： 东京证券交易所休市一日、中国至3月20日一年期贷款市场报价利率、德国2月PPI月率、俄罗斯央行公布利率决议本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈雯芳。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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环球下周看点：全球聚焦中东冲突走向 超级央行周重磅来袭

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环球下周看点：全球聚焦中东冲突走向超级央行周重磅来袭