高盛为美股“定调”：盈利扩张撑起上行空间，标普500指数今年底有望冲7600点

智通财经网03-16

智通财经APP获悉，高盛策略师指出，美股仍存在上行空间，预计到2026年底，在持续的企业盈利扩张及经济适度增长驱动下，标普500指数有望攀升至7600点。这一预测基于对成分股公司盈利前景的深度研判——该行进一步测算，标普500成分股2026年每股收益将增长至约309美元，2027年进一步攀升至约342美元，对应年增长率分别约为12%和10%。根据高盛最新发布的《U.S. Weekly ...

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Kickstart》投资组合策略报告，上述盈利增长将支撑起相应的价格目标，对应从当前水平算起的潜在回报率约为14%。这一展望反映出，即便利率维持高位且金融环境略有收紧，市场仍坚信企业盈利能力将持续扩张。科技将继续推动盈利增长科技企业依然是美国股市盈利增长的核心引擎。高盛最新研判显示，信息技术行业将在未来几年为标普500指数利润贡献最大增量——该行业每股收益预计从2025年的约70美元跃升至2026年的92美元，2027年进一步攀升至109美元。其他重点行业亦将贡献显著增量，包括金融、医疗保健和通信服务板块。不过相较于科技板块，这些行业的盈利增速预计更为温和。总体而言，该行策略师们预计标普500指数2026年盈利增长率约为12%，2027年约为10%，这与美国企业利润的长期扩张趋势一致。估值仍然偏高，但并未达到极端水平尽管近年来标普500指数持续强劲上涨，高盛仍判断其估值水平处于历史合理区间内。当前该指数基于远期盈利的交易市盈率约为21倍，这一水平接近其相对于历史分布的长期平均值。行业估值分化特征尤为明显：工业、公用事业和必需消费品板块的估值已接近各自历史区间的上限，而金融板块的估值倍数则相对处于历史低位。这种估值结构差异预示着，随着经济增长预期的动态调整，投资者可能会加速在不同行业间进行轮动布局。市场领导地位依然集中该报告进一步揭示了美股日益强化的集中化特征。高盛估算显示，标普500指数前十大成分股的市值占比已达39%，收益占比则约为31%。这种集中度格局本质上反映了少数几家技术驱动型公司的主导地位——这些企业正深度受益于人工智能、云计算及数字基础设施等长期结构性趋势的持续赋能。与此同时，高盛策略师团队特别强调，当前市场广度(即上涨股票的覆盖范围)仍相对较窄，这意味着真正驱动指数整体上涨的个股数量有限。今年以来能源领跑资产回报今年以来，在各类资产中，能源相关投资的表现最为突出。原油价格飙升约70%，能源股整体上涨近30%，这一涨幅不仅远超更广泛的股票市场基准指数，也显著领先于其他主要资产类别。与此同时，黄金和必需消费品板块同样展现出强劲的上涨势头，成为市场中的亮点。相比之下，科技板块和非必需消费品等增长型股票板块在风险调整后的表现则相对落后。预计经济增长将保持稳定高盛经济学家判断，未来几年美国经济将延续适度扩张态势。该机构最新预测显示，2026年实际GDP增速约为2.3%，2027年放缓至约2.0%，这一路径与市场普遍预期基本一致。在利率方面，高盛预计10年期美国国债收益率将在未来一年内温和下行至约4.1%。综合来看，这种经济与金融条件组合具备支撑股市持续上涨的潜力。尽管投资者对通胀走势和货币政策转向仍保持敏感，但适度增长的经济基本面与逐步缓和的利率压力，可能形成双重支撑——前者为企业盈利扩张提供基础，后者则有利于提升股票估值吸引力。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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