特斯拉深度研究系列(2)：欲上青天揽明月-在SPACEX上市前从与SPACEX及XAI协同的更高维度视角理解特斯拉

中泰证券股份有...03-13

在此前的特斯拉深度系列（1）中，我们观察到了特斯拉正加速从汽车厂向AI 企业转型，而在此后的8 个月内，我们注意到马斯克旗下最重要的三家公司（特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI）呈现出明显的加速融合态势（其中SpaceX 和xAI 已合并且SpaceX 即将上市）。因此我们认为现阶段开展对特斯拉的研究时，需拓宽视野从“ 特斯拉+SpaceX+xAI”生态体系的更高维度去理解特斯拉自身的变化、所扮演的...

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public","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLA":1.97,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLW":0.6},"content_text":"在此前的特斯拉深度系列（1）中，我们观察到了特斯拉正加速从汽车厂向AI 企业转型，而在此后的8 个月内，我们注意到马斯克旗下最重要的三家公司（特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI）呈现出明显的加速融合态势（其中SpaceX 和xAI 已合并且SpaceX 即将上市）。因此我们认为现阶段开展对特斯拉的研究时， 需拓宽视野从“ 特斯拉+SpaceX+xAI”生态体系的更高维度去理解特斯拉自身的变化、所扮演的角色和未来发展的脉络。特斯拉、SpaceX 和xAI 加速融合，特斯拉在此生态体系中展现出的护城河在于“AI与物理世界交互的能力+规模化AI 硬件的能力”；SpaceX 已于2026 年2 月收购xAI且即将在年内上市，特斯拉同样存在着和SpaceX 合并的预期。如果从三家公司融合的全局视角观察，这三者将形成基建底座（能源/数据/通信/运输）、AI 基础设施、AI软件中间层和AI 硬件终端的四层级协同生态体系，特斯拉在此生态体系主要提供“底层基建如能源和AI 算力+中间软件层的现实物理通用大模型FSD+终端硬件层面的智能AI（自动驾驶汽车和机器人）”。从全局生态的角度看，特斯拉的护城河便不仅仅局限在“三电技术”、“FSD 技术”等单点壁垒，而在于①通过AI 实体硬件（自动驾驶汽车&机器人）直接与物理世界交互的能力（大部分AI 工具处于软件层面，缺少直接从AI→生产力的逻辑链条）；②大规模量产AI 硬件的能力（AI 算法在软件层面易于复制，但车与机器人产能不易复制）。xAI 烧钱但在整个生态中定位提供通用大模型Grok 的基础支持，SpaceX 创造现金流且提供高毛利率太空运输能力和具备全球通信能力的星链星座；业务协同角度，xAI核心逻辑是AI 基础设施（Colossus）→通用大模型Grok→B/C 端软件收费，Grok 大模型同样对特斯拉和SpaceX 进行业务支持；SpaceX 则基于火箭可回收复用技术提供高毛利率（约80%并有望突破90%）的太空运输服务，基于这项能力同时构建起了由1 万颗卫星支撑、支持全球通信的星链网络（星链服务毛利率50%+）；财务角度，xAI 的数据中心与大模型训练需要大量现金投入，25 年收入约30+亿美元，25 年前三季度亏损约37 亿美元，仍处在创业早期阶段；SpaceX 已通过星链业务带来了丰厚现金流，25 年收入超150 亿美元，其中星链收入约100+亿美元。盈利预测：考虑到公司已经公告2025 年全年营收和业绩以及公司Robotaxi 和机器人业务进度放缓， 我们调整盈利预测， 预计2026-2028 年公司整体营收分别为1230.9/1366.1/1652.4 亿美元，同比增速分别29.8%/11.0%/21.0%，归母净利润（GAAP）分别为70.3/105.8/144.4 亿美元，同比增速分别85.3%/50.5%/36.6%，考虑到生态协同带来的护城河优势，维持“增持”评级。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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