粮厂研究员Will | 小米AI的资本市场新叙事

粮厂研究员Will03-13

“粮厂点评”频道致力于点评粮厂的季度财报、产品发布会、市场表现或其他重大事件，不追求信息即时性和效率性，主要为读者提供粮厂研究员的观点。最近和机构投资者们做了好几轮交流，大家的核心关切仍是Miclaw和衍生的小米AI战略。我把交流的核心观点在这里整理和分享：观点1. 小米资本市场叙事全面转向AI：过去3-4个月是密度最高的AI发布窗口。2025年底至2026年初，小米以少见的节奏密集推出AI...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260313173856954bf3dc&s=b><strong>粮厂研究员Will</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“粮厂点评”频道致力于点评粮厂的季度财报、产品发布会、市场表现或其他重大事件，不追求信息即时性和效率性，主要为读者提供粮厂研究员的观点。最近和机构投资者们做了好几轮交流，大家的核心关切仍是Miclaw和衍生的小米AI战略。我把交流的核心观点在这里整理和分享：观点1. 小米资本市场叙事全面转向AI：过去3-4个月是密度最高的AI发布窗口。2025年底至2026年初，小米以少见的节奏密集推出AI技术...</p>\n\n<a 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INC","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0918141705.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC"},"translate_title":"Grain Factory Researcher Will | Xiaomi AI's New Narrative of Capital Market","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"MIUmain":0.6,"01810":1.98,"XIACY":1.98},"content_text":"“粮厂点评”频道致力于点评粮厂的季度财报、产品发布会、市场表现或其他重大事件，不追求信息即时性和效率性，主要为读者提供粮厂研究员的观点。最近和机构投资者们做了好几轮交流，大家的核心关切仍是Miclaw和衍生的小米AI战略。我把交流的核心观点在这里整理和分享：观点1. 小米资本市场叙事全面转向AI：过去3-4个月是密度最高的AI发布窗口。2025年底至2026年初，小米以少见的节奏密集推出AI技术成果：MiMo大模型（2025年5月首版，12月迭代V2-Flash）、Miloco全屋智能系统、miclaw Agent、人形机器人进工厂实习计划等等，多条产品线同步推进。从雷军的直播，到卢伟冰在MWC上的公开表态，都说明管理层在有意识地推动AI叙事从概念落地为可演示、可量产的产品。财务层面，2025年小米AI研发投入约75亿元，占全年研发预算的四分之一，并公开承诺未来5年投入不低于2000亿。观点2. 拥抱AI叙事，是小米应对存储成本上涨这一结构性压力的最优解。本轮DRAM/NAND涨价的核心驱动力是AI算力需求爆发，数据中心HBM与大容量存储的激增需求向消费电子端传导，直接压缩小米中低端机型的利润空间。理论上小米有三条应对路径：一是等待AI叙事证伪，存储价格自然回落，但这与全球资本市场的共识方向相悖，执行成本极高；二是等待全球存储产能扩张压低价格，这是外部变量，周期可能长达1-2年，小米无法自主掌控；三是推动产品线高端化、提价对冲成本，而AI手机恰好是高端化最有说服力的载体，ASP提升与AI叙事天然融合。所以顺势而为，拥抱AI叙事并推动手机高端化，是兼顾成本端防御和估值端进攻的最优解。观点3. MiMo是小米整个AI体系的技术底座：从端侧小模型到通用基座大模型，是一次战略级的能力跃迁。在MiMo之前，小米AI能力主要体现在端侧小模型（小爱同学），本质是特定场景的规则化响应，能力天花板极低。MiMo-7B（2025年5月）标志着小米正式进入基座大模型赛道：从预训练阶段即以推理能力为核心目标定制数据配比，通过强化学习后训练释放模型推理潜力，7B参数规模在数学和代码推理上达到OpenAI o1-mini水准，超越了同量级模型的常规表现。2025年12月发布的MiMo-V2-Flash进一步拉高上限——309B总参数、15B激活、MoE架构，在SWE-bench Verified上排名开源模型全球第一，性能对标Claude Sonnet 4.5，成本仅为其3.5%。没有MiMo，miclaw（依赖强推理和工具调用能力）和Miloco（依赖视觉语言理解能力）都无从建立。MiMo是小米AI从依赖外部API到自主可控的技术分水岭。观点4. Miclaw的出现，是豆包AI手机后的新解题方案——从技术路线到商业模式。豆包手机的核心问题有两处：第一，其GUI Agent技术路线通过模拟屏幕点击操作第三方App，本质上绕过了这些App的正常流量路径，直接触碰微信、支付宝、美团等超级App的商业利益边界。微信的封禁不仅仅技术安全考量，更是平台经济利益的理性选择——没有任何App会允许外部Agent替代用户主动点击、稀释广告收益和用户数据资产。第二，字节（软件）与努比亚（硬件）的合作模式本身存在问题。软硬件深度整合需要从芯片架构到操作系统层的统一调度权限，两家独立公司在利益结构、研发节奏、系统权限上天然割裂，无法实现真正的系统级能力对齐。这一逻辑不限于手机领域——苹果这样的软硬一体公司，Apple Intelligence的生态整合仍屡屡延期；吉利与百度合作的极越汽车停摆，则是汽车领域独立软件公司与硬件公司跨界合作难以为继的典型案例。miclaw能够绕开外挂封禁，根本原因是小米以系统应用身份运行，调用自有底层系统权限，这是字节无法通过任何合作形式复制的能力壁垒。观点5. Miclaw的技术本质是让大模型获得调用工具的能力——这是AI从对话走向执行的关键一步。但当前工具仍限于软件层面，这决定了腾讯跟进claw叙事的资本市场弹性短期内强于小米。Miclaw将手机50+系统级能力封装为结构化工具，由MiMo根据用户意图动态选择和调用，是AI能力范式从回答问题转向完成任务的实质性跃迁。但需要注意的是，这一阶段的工具仍然是软件工具——打开App、发送短信、控制米家设备——本质上停留在数字世界的操作范畴。对腾讯而言，微信、小程序生态、支付、游戏，恰好构成中国数字世界最密集的工具集合。腾讯若以系统级方式接入类claw能力，其生态调用价值远超任何硬件厂商。因此，在当前技术阶段，腾讯在claw叙事中的资本市场弹性可能高于小米，而小米真正的差异化优势需要等到AI工具从软件世界延伸至物理世界后才能充分体现。观点6. 资本市场对claw的关注，揭示了to C端AI商业化的核心逻辑：赢家不是技术参数最优的，而是生态入口最深的。技术参数竞争在to B和学术研究领域有意义，但在to C的AI商业化路径中，用户触达规模和数据积累才是核心壁垒。小米（手机+IoT+汽车，10亿+IoT连接设备）和腾讯（微信13亿月活，小程序450万+）都是超级生态入口的控制方。两者的共同优势是不需要说服用户下载新的AI应用，而是将AI能力嵌入用户每天已经在使用的界面和服务。这与纯AI产品的逻辑截然不同。在中国市场，没有一家纯AI公司能在短期内复制小米或腾讯积累的用户粘性和数据资产。从这个角度判断，AI时代最有价值的公司，将从那些已经握有最深生态入口的存量巨头中产生，而不是从零出发重建用户关系。观点7. Miclaw是小米少见地踩中资本市场热点窗口的案例——这背后有结构性原因，并预示着未来类似时机将更频繁出现。小米过去在资本市场的技术叙事有一个固定模式：底层技术做得扎实，但往往错过或滞后于市场热点窗口。根本原因在于小米的研发方式——造车不代工、自研MiMo而非调用第三方API——这种从底层出发、面向更高上限的做法天然需要更长的准备周期，导致产品节奏与资本市场窗口错位。但Miclaw是一个例外：它在OpenClaw引爆全球AI Agent热潮的同一时间窗口内发布，成为全球首批系统级移动端Agent产品之一。这不是运气，而是技术积累（MiMo打好底座）与时机判断（Agent技术成熟节点）的叠加。更值得关注的前瞻判断是：随着AI演进进入深水区，快速整合型公司的叙事空间将收窄，只有那些具备真正技术积累、研发上限足够高的公司，才能持续踩在技术演进的关键节点上。小米过去被认为节奏偏慢的特质，在AI时代或将转化为竞争优势。观点8. 小米AI的终极护城河在于物理AI：全球几乎没有第二家公司，能同时在智能手机、IoT、汽车三个维度落地物理AI。当前绝大多数AI应用仍停留在数字世界——处理文字、代码、图像。但AI发展的下一阶段必然指向感知、理解并直接作用于物理世界：机器人、自动驾驶、具有物理执行能力的智能家居系统。在这个方向上，小米拥有全球独特的硬件组合：自研基座大模型（MiMo）提供推理与决策能力；10亿+IoT连接设备构成大规模感知网络；SU7/YU7自研汽车是移动端物理AI的最高维度载体；人形机器人进工厂则是AI执行层能力的最前沿探索。叠加一个难以绕开的供应链现实：全球没有任何公司能够脱离中国制造业完成消费电子产品的大规模量产，物理AI的量产能力天然锚定在中国，而小米是这条供应链体系的核心整合者之一。观点9. AI是这个时代最大的能力杠杆，小米是中国AI叙事中的核心标的。AI正在以指数级速度拉大领先者与落后者之间的差距，这一效应作用于国家、企业和个人三个层面，不存在所谓的软着陆。从各种维度来看，“统一的全球AI”并不存在，中美AI更可能走向两套平行且独立的技术与商业生态。这意味着中国将出现一批与OpenAI/Google/Anthropic平行但完全独立运作的AI头部公司。在这一框架下，小米的定位极为稀缺：它是中国AI生态中，极少数能同时覆盖技术层（大模型/SoC芯片/OS系统）、应用层（Miclaw/Miloco）、硬件层（手机/IoT/汽车）、制造层（自有工厂）的全栈公司。AI领域的竞赛不会停止，也不存在自然收敛的终点，这意味着小米在中国AI生态中的战略卡位价值只会随时间累积。对机构投资者而言，小米不仅是一只受益于AI叙事的弹性标的，更是中国物理AI时代的系统性配置标的。粮厂研究员Will2026年3月13日 于 香港","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2619192198","isCrawlerRequest":true}