连涨12天！光模块跑出新龙头

格隆汇03-14

作者 | 弗雷迪数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）2026年，A股资金在科技周期和避险板块间反复徘徊。光模块依旧是科技板块的焦点，可是，一线龙头也涨不动了。过去两年，“易中天”占据绝对主导。中际旭创、新易盛和天孚通信累计涨幅超300% 。估值已被推至历史高位，中际旭创市盈率高达70倍，新易盛52倍，天孚通信138倍。于是，资金开始积极寻找新洼地，二线供应商华工科技与...

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勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）2026年，A股资金在科技周期和避险板块间反复徘徊。光模块依旧是科技板块的焦点，可是，一线龙头也涨不动了。过去两年，“易中天”占据绝对主导。中际旭创、新易盛和天孚通信累计涨幅超300% 。估值已被推至历史高位，中际旭创市盈率高达70倍，新易盛52倍，天孚通信138倍。于是，资金开始积极寻找新洼地，二线供应商华工科技与光迅...</p>\n\n<a 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Optical module runs out of the new faucet","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"300308":1.86,"300394":1.85,"300502":1.83,"002281":1.9,"000988":1.95,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6},"content_text":"作者 | 弗雷迪数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）2026年，A股资金在科技周期和避险板块间反复徘徊。光模块依旧是科技板块的焦点，可是，一线龙头也涨不动了。过去两年，“易中天”占据绝对主导。中际旭创、新易盛和天孚通信累计涨幅超300% 。估值已被推至历史高位，中际旭创市盈率高达70倍，新易盛52倍，天孚通信138倍。于是，资金开始积极寻找新洼地，二线供应商华工科技与光迅科技迎来爆发。华工科技连续12个交易日上涨，累计涨幅超80%，市值最高突破1300亿元。而光迅科技也在三个交易日内大涨23.5%。聪明的资金，到底看上了啥？01光又进一步前不久，A股市场围绕“光进铜退”炒作了一把Micro LED。概念单日涨幅高达8%，20家企业集体封板，华灿光电、三安光电等龙头个股股价短期内实现大幅飙升。原因竟然是，Micro LED技术在AI算力领域找到新应用——CPO（共封装光学）。在AI算力基础设施的代际革命中，光通信行业正经历架构跨越，可插拔模块正向CPO（共封装光学）技术演进，直接威胁到传统铜缆的市场份额。传统数据中心短距互连高度依赖铜缆，DAC和AEC等铜缆具有低成本和低功耗的优势，机柜内部的GPU互连主要采用这种方式（Scale Up）。光模块插在交换机面板上，数据信号要经过这样一个路径：交换机芯片→ PCB 板上的铜走线 → 连接器 → 光模块。当传输速率突破800Gb/s时，铜缆物理衰减变得致命。信号每过一英寸就急剧衰减，整体链路损耗高达22分贝，99.3%的信号在传输中丢失。系统必须增加功耗来补偿损耗。单端口功耗飙升至30瓦，有效距离不到3米。到了1.6Tb/s速率，距离更缩短至2米内。但现在的AI 训练集群，动不动就要把几万甚至十几万个加速器连在一起，铜缆不仅挤占空间，而且不利于散热。英伟达的GB300 NVL72机柜就是个典型案例，单机柜容纳了72颗高性能GPU和36颗CPU ，需要塞进5000根高速差分对铜缆，总长近5000米。这不仅消耗1.36吨铜，还占去机柜25%的宝贵空间。而CPO的做法很直接：既然信号在电气路径上损耗大，那就把这个路径缩到最短——把光学器件与交换芯片封装在同一基板上。架构创新带来的改变立竿见影，信号传输距离从几十厘米骤降至几毫米，信号损耗不仅大幅度降低的同时设备带宽密度提升数倍，数据搬运的端到端延迟被控制在微妙以内。Nvidia的Spectrum-X CPO 交换机，信号损耗只有4dB，功耗 9 瓦（传统方案要 30 瓦）。Broadcom 的数据更夸张，说能省 3.5 倍的功耗。据称，采用Micro LED的 CPO方案，能大幅降低整体能耗至铜缆方案的5%，有望凭节能优势成为光互连替代方案。实际上，博通在2021年就针对CPO推出过产品，但相比传统可插拔光模块，CPO的维护成本和封装技术水平还未达到可大规模部署的状态。但未来，Scale-Up纵向扩展架构急需一种无缆化且低功耗的替代方案，这种加速趋势在英伟达的推动下得到了验证，资本也开始围绕它进行布局。2026年1月的CES展会上，英伟达正式发布了Spectrum-X CPO交换机。这意味着CPO不再是实验室里的概念，而是已经进入了英伟达的量产清单。在scale-out网络中，可插拔光模块仍是主流方案，未来CPO的占比有望显著提升。还有个预期差在于，scale-up网络里铜缆的增量市场未来是否也会被CPO打开并且挤占。TrendForce集邦咨询预估，CPO在AI数据中心光通信模块的渗透率将逐年成长，有机会于2030年达35%。美银也有个预测，到2030 年，Scale-up 的 CPO 市场能达到 94 亿美元，比 Scale-out 的 56 亿美元还要大。CPO市场加速增长，将带来一个非常关键的问题，产业链的价值分配变了。02今年比的是1.6T在传统可插拔光模块时代，产业链的价值重心集中在中游的封装组装环节，掌握规模化量产能力和良率控制的封装厂商获得了最大回报。技术架构的颠覆，很有可能引发利润分配的重新洗牌。CPO架构下的光学器件现在直接集成在芯片周围，导致传统光模块外壳与独立接口被物理消灭。等于说，可以直接绕过模块封装找上游光引擎供应商拿货，那么利润最终会往产业链上游的高壁垒核心器件转移。光模块的主要成本构成包括TOSA（光发射组件，含激光器）、ROSA（光接收组件，含光电探测器）和电子芯片（如DSP），合计占800G/1.6T光模块总成本的56-61%。高端芯片市场仍由博通、Coherent/Finisar、思科/Acacia、三菱电机、住友电工等美日企业主导，国产化率仅4%-10%。但目前高端光芯片产能普遍紧缺，严重限制了下游的供货节奏。为了保障光芯片产能供应，英伟达已向Lumentum和Coherent注资共计40亿美元。这笔战略投资旨在锁定先进激光器与光学组件的长期产能，譬如EML。作为800G与1.6T模块的关键组件，EML的供应紧张直接制约了高速光模块的量产能力，主要芯片公司Lumentum扩厂需要超过一年周期做准备，因此今年供应还是吃紧。这似乎预示着，未来部分高端光模块市场的入场券已发生变更，考核标准不再是单纯的组装产能规模。由于系统厂商直接与上游光引擎供应商建立强绑定关系，头部厂商的竞争已从下游模块的组装制造能力，前移至对上游核心元器件供应链的掌控与协同能力。那么对于无法实现光芯片与光引擎自主供应的光模块企业，其利润空间恐怕会被上游器件商和下游系统商双向挤压。在国内，天孚通信是非常受益的一方。公司是英伟达1.6T硅光引擎的直接供应商，掌握FAU光器件封装和ERS激光光源技术，有望在英伟达CPO方案中争取重要的生态位。而华工科技与光迅科技之所以在2026年初脱颖而出，就在于它们对光模块产业链的垂直整合能力，相对于估值暂时饱和的“易中天”，存在更大的预期差。2月华工科技在互动平台明确表示：公司基本实现高端光芯片自主可控，具备硅光芯片从设计到模块集成的全自研能力，已推出用于1.6T光模块的单波200G自研硅光芯片。去年华工科技高速光模块产品国内基地同比增长111%，海外基地增长500%。据中国光谷，公司光模块业务负责人介绍，公司AI高速光模块订单已经排到2026年第四季度，2026年其1.6T模块年产能计划再提升50%以上。以及下一代产品的超前布局。核心子公司华工正源自主研发的全球首款3.2T NPO产品，已率先应用于行业头部客户，标志着全光Scale-up互联技术正式从概念验证迈入大规模工程落地阶段。在高端光芯片紧缺的背景，公司推动800G/1.6T规模化交付，加快3.2T/6.4T迭代，硅光、LPO、CPO多路线并行的能力，得到了资金的认可。而光迅科技作为拥有国资背景的老牌光通信巨头，号称打通了“芯片-器件-模块-子系统”全产业链条，其1.6T硅光模块也已具备批量交付能力。去年9月，公司公开披露，其中低速光芯片自供比例较高，自研高端光芯片在一些产品上已经开始逐步小批量商用。光迅科技前三季度营收（+58.65%）和利润（54.95%）实现了大幅增长。华工科技前三季度光模块业务收入增长接近五成，利润弹性则放大了十倍（541%）。持续上修的需求也导致了1.6T光模块价格被迫升高，机构数据显示，去年年末1.6T光模块零售价格已从1200美元飙升至2000美元以上，涨幅超70%。正是在这一技术变革的缝隙中，资金似乎看到了“后来居上”的曙光。因为光模块产业链的上市公司里，目前基本只有“易中天”的估值计入了高端光模块带来的技术溢价。而二线光模块企业的市值能否朝着老大们看齐，很大程度取决于他们的1.6T光模块产品能否顺利放量。去年剑桥科技曾在去年11月接受调研时指出，部分1.6T产品进入小批量供货阶段，但因核心硅光引擎供应商交付延迟，量产时间由原计划的2025年推迟至2026年。03尾声从产品演进来看，光模块市场正呈现清晰的升级节奏。800G产品于2025年进入强劲增长期，并加速向主流市场渗透；1.6T产品则自今年下半年起步入量产爬坡阶段。去年许多机构就开始上调了对2026年1.6T光模块出货量的预测。譬如LightCounting给出的数字，800G光模块出货量预计将增长一倍以上，1.6T光模块出货量则从2025年的小基数增长至数千万端口，对应的销售额将突破20亿美元。目前头部光模块企业的估值也都不便宜，中际旭创70倍，新易盛52倍，天孚通信138倍。二线光模块企业在营收规模，产能，毛利率方面和直接受益海外算力需求增长的“易中天”无法相提并论，但却在1.6T需求爆发，上游芯片产能紧缺时讲了一段自主可控的故事。配合爆单等消息催化，自然放大了今年对于高端光模块出货量的乐观预期。但即便有这样的乐观预期，也应该保持警惕。连续12天的上涨，华工科技的市盈率拉开到74倍左右，光迅科技也接近78倍。市值短期涨得太快，进度不及预期带来的波动往往会把疑似戴维斯双击的剧本演绎成“跳楼机”，投资者需要注意股价可能大幅波动的风险。（全文完）","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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