抖音外卖，要挖谁的墙角？

无冕财经03-13

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　//// 　　抖音外卖卷土重来，参与切分到店和到家两块蛋糕，面对这套打法，美团、阿里、京东，谁最怕它？　　作者：海棠叶　　抖音外卖，还是来了。　　3月5日，抖音把“随心团”更名为“抖音即送”。　　按照抖音生活服务的说法，升级是因为“用户对高品质外卖的需求日益增长”。　　数据显示，截至2025年12月初，“随心...

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\n　　////\n　　抖音外卖卷土重来，参与切分到店和到家两块蛋糕，面对这套打法，美团、阿里、京东，谁最怕它？\n　　作者：海棠叶\n　　抖音外卖，还是来了。\n　　3月5日，抖音把“随心团”更名为“抖音即送”。\n　　按照抖音生活服务的说法，升级是因为“用户对高品质外卖的需求日益增长”。\n　　数据显示，截至2025年12月初，“随心团”参与品牌已超3000家，2025年四季度连锁商家“随心团”支付GMV较同年一季度日均提升211%。\n　　过去一年，美团、阿里、京东大战外卖烧掉近千亿，打得不可开交，抖音一直站在场边，人们以为它不玩了。直到现在，才意识到它只是在等自己的节奏。\n　　不碰配送、不卷时效、只做最擅长的种草，这套打法很轻，但轻归轻，“胃口”不小：2026年，抖音生活服务增速目标定在50%左右。\n　　更关键的是，它有钱。2024年，字节跳动净利润2415亿元，每天净赚6.6亿，是中国最赚钱的互联网公司。\n　　有钱，意味着可以慢慢试，也可以在关键时刻加码。\n　　抖音提着钱袋子重新落子，这一刀砍向谁，市场都在看。\n　　试错四年，抖音外卖不再硬碰硬\n　　抖音对外卖的执念，持续了四年多。\n　　2021年夏天，“心动外卖”上线时，想的还是用流量换交易：六亿日活用户刷着视频，顺手就把饭点了。但现实很快泼了冷水——用户打开抖音是为了消遣，不是为了找饭吃；即便下了单，完全依赖第三方配送，时效和成本都失控。那场尝试无疾而终。\n　　此后几年，抖音换过几次打法。2022年底试点“团购配送”，主推高客单价的多人套餐，试图用内容撬动计划性消费，一度定下千亿GMV的目标。但配送成本过高、单量起不来的问题始终无解，2023年底不得不默默收缩。\n　　真正的转折发生在2024年。\n　　那一年，抖音内部的架构调整频繁得令人眼花缭乱：4月，抖音生活服务从本地生活板块划归至电商体系，与“小时达”即时零售业务协同；6月，“团购配送”停止新增商家，全面迁移至抖店·到家外卖平台；8月，内部宣布业务重新划回本地生活板块；11月，“随心团”业务正式上线，采用的是“一品双销”模式，即同一团购套餐支持“到店验券”与“配送到家”双选择，并通过定向邀请制筛选优质堂食商家。\n　　几番折腾后，一条新的逻辑逐渐清晰：不再硬拼配送，而是用自己的方式，绕开最硬的骨头。\n　　这套模式的微妙之处，藏在它与美团的根本差异里。\n　　美团做外卖，核心是即时配送，用户打开App是为了“点饭”，决策基于距离、评分、配送费；抖音做“随心团”，核心是内容种草，用户刷到视频才产生需求，决策基于兴趣和场景。前者是“人找货”，后者是“货找人”。前者自建配送，把时效视为生命线；后者明确表示“没有自建外卖的打算”，配送全部交给第三方。\n　　这意味着，抖音从不试图在“多快好省”上和美团硬拼。它做的是一门更轻的生意——只做连接，不做履约。\n\n　　▲抖音外卖业务发展过程。\n　　今年3月，“随心团”正式更名为“抖音即送”。名字的变化，释放了一个明确的信号：抖音要把这套轻模式，从试探推向常态化运营。\n　　更名之后，入口权重有所提升，用户在抖音搜索“外卖”“即送”等关键词，可以直接进入聚合页面，附近支持配送到家的团购商品以信息流形式呈现。与此同时，抖音开始在部分城市试点“直播即时配送”，商家在直播时挂载的团购链接，用户下单后同样可以配送到家，将内容种草到交易转化的路径进一步缩短。\n　　对于接下来的打法，抖音依然保持着克制。据雷峰网援引一位接近抖音生活服务人士的说法，2026年抖音即送的业务重点依然是“扩品类、提认知”，而非卷入配送时效的军备竞赛。\n　　四年试错之后，抖音终于想明白了一件事：外卖这场仗，不必硬碰硬。既然拼不过配送，那就拼种草；既然做不了“多快好省”，那就做“看过即买到”。\n　　美团守擂，阿里协同，京东卡位\n　　就在抖音试错的这4年里，外卖赛道的牌桌上，市场格局已经重新划线。\n　　据第三方机构的行业报告显示，美团依然占据半壁江山，但份额从七成回落至五成，防守成本水涨船高；阿里把外卖做成了激活电商的入口，烧钱的同时烧出了生态协同，市占率悄然攀升至四成以上；京东高举高打冲进来，用“品质外卖”切下一小块市场，却发现自己卡在了最窄的位置上。\n\n　　▲外卖市场份额预测。图片来自艾瑞咨询。\n　　谁在防守，谁在协同，谁在卡位，答案已经写在了财报和业务布局里。\n　　先看美团，它是守擂者，也是市场份额最大的那个。\n　　2025年三季度财报显示，美团核心本地商业经营亏损141亿元，去年同期为盈利145亿元；销售及营销开支从去年同期的180亿元激增至343亿元，几乎翻倍。不过防守的代价换来了份额的稳固，在实付30元以上的高价值订单中，美团占比超过70%。在摩根大通的报告中，截至三季度，按订单量统计，美团市占率约50%。\n　　面对京东和阿里从两翼发起的进攻，美团的应对是全线跟进：用户端补贴、商家端降佣、骑手端激励，一个环节都没有落下。\n　　2025年5月的财报电话会上，CEO王兴对外强硬表态：“我们将不惜一切代价赢得这场竞争。”到了三季度，王兴进一步解释，美团会“进行必要的投入以维持领导地位，但不会参与价格战”。两句话连起来看，美团的打法逐渐清晰：不是主动进攻，而是被动防御中保持理性。\n　　这种打法稳住基本盘的同时，代价是成本激增。但作为龙头，美团没有选择，任何对手的进攻，它都得接招。\n　　再看阿里，它是三家之中战略意图最清晰的一个。\n　　2025年，阿里完成历时8个月的战略重组：将饿了么升级为淘宝闪购，接入天猫旗舰店和菜鸟供应链，与淘宝10亿年活跃买家形成协同。这套架构调整的意图很直接，并非单纯做外卖，而是把即时零售作为激活核心电商的“高频触点”。\n　　具体而言，是用外卖的高频属性撬动电商的流量转化，再用电商的丰富品类反哺即时零售。截至2025年10月底，约3500个天猫品牌已将其线下门店接入即时零售业务。从结果看，三季度阿里即时零售业务收入229.06亿元，同比增长60%，8月日订单峰值突破1.2亿单。摩根大通的报告显示，截至11月，淘宝闪购市占率已提升至42%。\n　　这套模式的底色是生态协同。同样是烧钱，阿里的成本有一部分通过流量回流转化成了电商收入——这是另两家无法复制的账本。\n　　最后是京东，它是这场大战的发起者，也是模式最单一的一个。\n　　2025年2月，京东以“0佣金+百亿补贴”高调入局，率先为全职骑手缴纳五险一金，迅速打出“品质外卖”的差异化标签。\n　　凭借“低佣金+骑手保障+自营厨房”，京东外卖从美团和阿里手中切出了一块市场，2025年包含外卖在内的新业务收入493亿元，同比增长157.3%。\n　　代价同样写在财报里：新业务全年经营亏损466亿元，营销开支同比增长75.1%至840亿元。\n　　2025年11月，京东CEO许冉在业绩会上说，外卖业务仍处于战略布局的第一阶段，目标是成为一个可以独立生存的业务——这句话的潜台词是，目前它还做不到。如今，许冉又表示，2026年外卖业务总投入将较去年有所降低。\n　　三家各下一盘棋，棋路不同，处境各异。\n　　美团份额最大，模式最重，防守姿态最明显；阿里模式最巧，用生态协同分摊战争成本，进退自如；京东卡位最窄，定位清晰但生态单一，规模天花板最低。\n \n　　抖音出手，谁最疼？\n　　棋局尚未终了，当抖音带着“抖音即送”重新落子，棋盘上的风向开始转动。\n　　用自己的方式，参与切分到店和到家两块蛋糕，这套打法打出去，子弹最终会落在谁身上？\n　　答案需要分层看。有的会被正面冲击，有的会被侧面袭扰，还有的可能还没等到被挖，自己先站不稳了。\n　　最先被挖的，是美团的到店。\n　　毕竟，抖音的“随心团”从上线那天起，剑指的就是美团的到店市场。\n　　这套“一品双销”模式的精妙之处在于：它把到店团购和配送到家放在同一个商品链接里，用户刷视频种草，买完券可以去店里吃，也可以选择送上门。表面看是做外卖的增量，实际上是在用内容撬动到店消费的决策路径——而内容，恰恰是抖音最不缺的东西。\n\n　　▲抖音外卖来势汹汹，图片来自网络。\n　　坐拥超10亿月活用户，抖音的流量分发逻辑与美团截然不同，“货找人”的逻辑，正在重构到店消费的流量分配权。\n　　更别提，2025年夏天，抖音筛选了一批“进攻城市”，使出更高额的补贴。普通城市货补4%，进攻城市直接拉到6%-7.5%，部分头部商户甚至拿到10%——比美团高出整整一倍。济南是首批进攻城市之一，在高额补贴加持下，2025年抖音生服在当地餐饮团购的核销GMV已超过美团。\n　　据雷峰网报道，仅12月单月，抖音生服支付GMV便逼近1000亿，全年则达8500亿，同比增速高达59%。而美团受外卖大战牵制，到店业务增长明显放缓——野村证券调研显示，美团到店业务同期增速仅为23%，大概率未达年初25%的目标。\n　　在这场大战中，美团失去的不仅是增速。自媒体“财富情报局”援引行业流传的一组数据称，从2024年到2025年，美团到店业务市场份额从61.3%降至59.8%，而抖音则从38.7%提升至40.2%。按核销后交易额计算，双方比例已从2024年的约7：3缩小至2025年的6：4。\n　　这堪称美团真正的痛点：外卖战场守住了份额，但后院——那个曾经贡献丰厚利润的到店基本盘——正在被抖音用内容一点一点掏空。\n　　阿里也难高枕无忧。\n　　淘宝闪购的存在，恰恰是抖音的参照。既然淘宝能用钱砸开外卖市场、撕开一道口子，抖音是否也可以？\n　　抖音同样有钱。早在3月5日，胡润研究院发布《2026胡润全球富豪榜》，字节跳动创始人张一鸣以5500亿元人民币财富成为中国首富，财富增长32%。\n　　对比国内互联网企业，字节跳动2024年净利润高达2415.6亿元，相当于每天净赚6.6亿元，一举超越腾讯1940.7亿元、阿里797亿元，成为中国最赚钱的互联网公司。\n　　而且它的内容场比淘宝更擅长“种草”，用户在抖音上刷到东西想买，路径比打开淘宝搜索更短。\n　　淘宝闪购势头正猛，但抖音生活服务2026年的增速目标依然是50%，只要这个增速能维持，只要抖音持续用内容侵蚀用户的到店决策心智，阿里的到店团购业务迟早会被波及。阿里可以高枕无忧吗？恐怕不能。\n　　但要说三者中谁最被动，答案可能是京东。\n　　美团份额最大，有足够的底牌和空间来应对；阿里有生态协同，进退自如。京东呢？它靠“品质外卖”的差异化定位切进了市场，2025年底市占率超过15%，代价是新业务全年亏损466亿元。\n　　更大的问题在于投入节奏。一个尚未独立生存的业务，一个需要持续输血才能维持份额的业务，在投入减少的情况下，要如何应对抖音的进攻？抖音的“一品双销”不只在侵蚀到店，也在渗透到家，那些被抖音种草的团购券，有一部分最终会流向配送。\n　　京东外卖好不容易从两位大佬嘴里抠出来的份额，能守住吗？\n　　能确定的是，这一局，谁都睡不安稳。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：杨红卜","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"re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