AI逻辑的“左右互搏”下微软(MSFT.US)跌出了“黄金坑”

智通财经03-10

智通财经APP获悉，美国银行高级分析师Vivek Arya在最近发表的一份研报中将近期软件板块抛售称为“内在逻辑的自相矛盾”：一方面，超算云厂商与AI算力企业因巨额资本开支被抛售(市场认为投入无法兑现回报);另一方面，市场又宣称AI将颠覆SaaS、替代人力。按正常逻辑而言，这两种观点根本无法同时成立。如果认为AI是未来，那么重金投入算力的企业就是正确选择，理应买入算力股、卖出SaaS;如果认为AI...

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pit\" under the \"left-right mutual fight\" of AI logic","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"MSFT":1.98,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFO":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，美国银行高级分析师Vivek Arya在最近发表的一份研报中将近期软件板块抛售称为“内在逻辑的自相矛盾”：一方面，超算云厂商与AI算力企业因巨额资本开支被抛售(市场认为投入无法兑现回报);另一方面，市场又宣称AI将颠覆SaaS、替代人力。按正常逻辑而言，这两种观点根本无法同时成立。如果认为AI是未来，那么重金投入算力的企业就是正确选择，理应买入算力股、卖出SaaS;如果认为AI远没有市场想象中重要，那就该卖出算力股、买入传统SaaS。然而，当下两类股票同步暴跌，似乎只能说明市场不懂AI，也不愿深究逻辑，只会盲目应激反应。而作为本轮AI革命席卷全球科技行业的浪潮中，始终是投资者关注的“七巨头”绝对核心之一的微软(MSFT.US)，就成为了被市场错误定价的典型例子。微软股价因巨额资本开支被抛售，意味着投资者不相信AI算力建设具备合理性;但同时，他们又担心微软软件业务会被AI颠覆，认为AI替代人力后，企业将不再采购微软的“席位账号”。哪怕不是科技专家，也能看出这套逻辑有多荒谬。显然，当前市场对微软的定价，已经与公司基本面出现了严重脱节。不过，这种非理性波动，恰恰给投资者带来了难得的入场机会，无论市场最终哪一方的判断是对的，微软都能站稳脚跟。利好与利空催化因素当前市场对微软最大的担忧，来自其单季度375亿美元的巨额资本开支，以及公司后续仍将持续加大投入的规划。投资者普遍担心，超大规模云厂商会出现算力产能过剩，同时微软的资本开支与Azure的收入增长并未形成明确的对应关系，投入的回报无法验证。但这种担忧，本质上是对算力基建建设周期的根本性误解。从微软最新财报电话会议披露的信息来看，当季约三分之二的资本开支投向了GPU、CPU等“短周期资产”，核心是为了匹配持续供不应求的客户需求。公司明确表示，当前Azure的客户需求始终超过供给，必须通过持续的投入，平衡新增供给与快速增长的Azure需求、Copilot系列产品的算力需求、研发创新的算力支撑，以及到期服务器与网络设备的替换需求。更重要的是，微软的资本开支并非单纯向英伟达(NVDA.US)、AMD(AMD.US)采购芯片，而是在加速推进垂直整合，打造自身的算力护城河。在第二季度财报电话会议中，微软CEO萨提亚・纳德拉反复强调了自研Maia 200 AI加速器的落地。纳德拉表示：“在芯片层面，我们拥有英伟达、AMD以及自研Maia芯片，可在多代硬件中实现最优的整体集群性能、成本与供给。本周我们已上线Maia 200加速器，其FP4精度算力超10 petaFLOPS，总拥有成本(TCO)相较当前最新硬件优化超30%。我们将从超级智能团队的推理与合成数据生成开始规模化应用，同时用于Copilot与Foundry的推理服务。”对非技术人员而言，FP4精度10 petaFLOPS这类技术指标意义不大，但总拥有成本下降30%是实打实的重磅利好。微软在CPU端同步推进自研Cobalt 200，性能较上一代自研芯片提升50% 以上。这是关键利好：公司逐步降低对英伟达的依赖，不必为所有硬件支付溢价，长期利润率将随之修复——而利润率收缩正是看空微软的核心逻辑之一。本季度微软毛利率降至68%，看似承压，但核心原因是公司正处于投入建设期：高价资产上线即开始折旧。但当公司逐步用自研Maia、Cobalt芯片替代英伟达、AMD芯片后，单次推理成本(用户每向Copilot提问一次)将大幅下降，推动利润率反弹。随着自研芯片渗透率提升，效率收益增速将超过折旧增速，这也是管理层预计2026全年运营利润率小幅回升的逻辑。除了资本开支，OpenAI也是市场对微软分歧最大的点之一。近期微软因OpenAI资本重组，录得100亿美元GAAP账面收益，但这只是会计处理，实际经营逻辑更为复杂。微软约45%的剩余履约义务(RPO)来自向OpenAI销售算力。一方面，这是好事：OpenAI是超级大客户，其最新融资降低了违约风险;但另一方面，这也带来显著的客户集中风险——微软算力建设高度绑定OpenAI的成功，而OpenAI未来如何兑现盈利、覆盖巨额投入，仍无定论。近期Anthropic的消息让局势更复杂：Anthropic丢失政府合同，OpenAI取而代之。按理说，作为OpenAI的云服务商，微软理应受益，但市场反应却偏负面。原因在于：如果OpenAI持续做大，微软仅在基础设施端受益，但会不会削弱其自身软件业务的长期竞争优势?市场甚至担心，微软自有Copilot工具正不断集成第三方模型，若它仅被视为外部技术的简易入口，而非真正的创新产品，微软可能在软件业务丧失竞争力。但必须认清的是，支撑微软基本盘的从来不是个人用户，而是企业客户。只要企业端仍选择微软的产品与服务，公司的基本面就不会出现根本性动摇。无可替代的基本盘：微软的完美对冲属性事实上，投资者不应看空AI，尤其对拥有自有云服务的巨头而言，“算力过剩”不应成为担忧的理由。即便不卖给AI客户，算力也可用于无数场景，甚至自用。微软三个月内新增1吉瓦算力，正在亚特兰大、威斯康星等地建设“AI超级工厂”，通过高速网络将多个数据中心连为一体，形成巨型算力有机体。目前微软Copilot付费席位达1500万，席位增速飙升160%——尽管相较总用户基数仍不算高，但增长势头强劲。此外，与其他七大科技巨头一样，微软算力持续供不应求，必须持续扩产。用美银所说的“内在逻辑矛盾”分析，微软其实是一个极具价值的布局标的，甚至可以作为对冲工具：如果AI大获成功、替代人力，那么微软将成为赢家，因为它掌握Azure算力基础设施，也拥有企业替代人力所需的智能工具;而如果AI仅带来温和效率提升，微软依然会是赢家，因为它拥有4.5亿Microsoft 365商业席位，企业替换成本极高，基本盘稳固。当前市场因为高资本开支抛售微软，本质是给了投资者一个绝佳的机会：用“软件业务即将消亡”的悲观定价，买入全球最领先的AI基础设施资产，而现实中，微软的软件业务根本没有任何消亡的迹象。估值分析市场的过度悲观，已经让微软的估值回落至极具吸引力的区间。首先看公司的业绩底气：微软剩余履约义务(RPO)高达6250亿美元，同比激增110%，仅凭这一数据，就足以证明微软的核心价值与算力建设的必要性。其中约2810亿美元来自OpenAI，这意味着超过3400亿美元来自多元化长期合同，结构十分健康。而在估值端，微软当前动态市盈率仅为25.53倍，远低于其33.21倍的长期历史均值，这是2022年以来微软估值的低位区间，而上一次出现这样的估值水平，并没有持续太久。可以说，当前的股价里，市场只定价了对微软的极致怀疑，完全没有给公司的经营稳定性、AI产业的长期潜力，以及自研芯片、高密度数据中心带来的效率提升留下任何空间。一旦微软的自研芯片规模化落地带动成本下行、利润率修复，当前的价格将被证明是显著的低估。结论当前市场将微软的巨额资本开支视为负担，但数据表明，这些投入最终将构筑防御性护城河。微软通过激进布局自研芯片与算力基础设施，本质是提前锁定未来5-10年的算力成本。25.53倍的市盈率，完全无视了一个核心事实：微软的算力产能处于供不应求状态。市场总有一方会误判软件行业的未来，但从Azure积压订单规模与历史投入资本回报率来看，被误判的一方绝不会是微软。当然，这并不意味着没有风险，例如，即便完成融资，OpenAI的发展依然存在极大的不确定性;Copilot的商业化落地不及预期，用户渗透率放缓甚至逆转;公司收入增速持续放缓，本季度17%的收入增速若进一步下滑至15%-16%，大概率会引发市场的负面反应;来自谷歌(GOOGL.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)等厂商的行业竞争始终存在。但即便充分考虑上述风险，在当前的估值水平下，微软的风险收益比依然极具吸引力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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AI逻辑的“左右互搏”下 微软(MSFT.US)跌出了“黄金坑”

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AI逻辑的“左右互搏”下微软(MSFT.US)跌出了“黄金坑”