560亿乳业巨头，狂甩22亿包袱

21财闻汇03-09

作者：谢之迎谭璐编辑：谭璐图源：蒙牛集团乳业巨头，决定轻装上阵。3月9日，蒙牛集团发布公告，将于3月25日举行董事会会议，批准刊发2025全年业绩。据预告，其2025年的总收入，预计出现7%-8%的同比下降，且净利将缩水至14亿-16亿元。同期，管理层再次巨额计提，总额超22亿元。上任两年，蒙牛总裁高飞持续“卸下包袱”，然而，其主业并无太多起色。3月9日收盘，蒙牛乳业报16.5港元/股，总市值...

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谭璐编辑：谭璐图源：蒙牛集团乳业巨头，决定轻装上阵。3月9日，蒙牛集团发布公告，将于3月25日举行董事会会议，批准刊发2025全年业绩。据预告，其2025年的总收入，预计出现7%-8%的同比下降，且净利将缩水至14亿-16亿元。同期，管理层再次巨额计提，总额超22亿元。上任两年，蒙牛总裁高飞持续“卸下包袱”，然而，其主业并无太多起色。3月9日收盘，蒙牛乳业报16.5港元/股，总市值约560亿港元，约为伊利的30%左右。1等待拐点“年内消费者需求、渠道场景、竞争环境持续变化。”蒙牛方面指出，收入下滑影响到经营利润率，预计在7.9%到8.1%之间，同比略有下降。“收入降幅符合预期，经营利润率未达管理层‘持平’目标。”‌眺远营销咨询创始人高承远对《21CBR》表示，蒙牛的降本增效，未完全抵消收入收缩的影响。图源：视觉中国好在，原奶价格环比企稳，需求持续改善。高飞团队指出，2025年下半年以来，液态奶收入回升。同时，鲜奶、奶粉、奶酪等品类，2025年全年均取得双位数增长，并保持良好增长势头。例如，奶粉业务在三季度实现收入双位数增长，瑞哺恩、贝拉米，上半年的同比增长均超过30%。“这显示高飞的‘一体两翼’战略，业务结构优化见到成效，而常温奶基本盘仍然承压。”高承远指出。眼下，乳业正站在周期转折的节点。有分析人士预计，原奶价格企稳，将有效压缩低价竞争空间，推动终端定价秩序修复，行业拐点或于2026年显现。有研报指出，后续蒙牛的液态奶需求有望复苏。今年春节期间，公司液态奶产品动销顺利，目前库存亦处于合理健康水平，经销商信心有所修复。高飞团队相信，持续优化营销费用和成本管控，并加大研发和数字化投入，有助于提升核心竞争力和运营效率。2巨额减值最受市场关注的，是蒙牛在利润端的巨大波动。高飞为代表的管理层指出，针对部分已停产的闲置生产设施，以及若干存在回收风险的金融及合约资产，进行约22亿元至24亿元的一次性减值拨备。高飞受此影响，蒙牛2025年的净利润，仅14亿至16亿元。在2024年，其净利润仅为1.05亿元，暴跌超97%。当时，高飞团队对贝拉米等历史并购项目，进行了约43.3亿元的一次性减值拨备。这样，其两年合计减值高达65亿以上。“蒙牛连续两年营收负增长后，2025年净利润回升，主要得益于减值规模收窄及成本管控，而非经营性改善。”高承远指出。这意味着，蒙牛在原奶过剩周期中扩张的部分产能，未产生经济回报。而且，针对“应收账款及委托贷款”的减值，暴露出其部分下游经销商，可能面临严重的资金链压力。如今，这部分金融风险，集中出清。蒙牛方面强调，此次减值拨备，不会对运营及现金流产生重大不利影响。连续两年“甩包袱”，高飞团队寄望在2026年，轻装上阵。3高调营销对于高飞团队来说，今年是个营销好年景，前有米兰奥运，后有世界杯。2025年，国际奥委会主席考文垂和代言人谷爱凌相继到访。今年开年，就打出“冬奥营销+农历新年场景+精细化运营”的组合拳。2月，其纯牛奶、酸奶和黄油三款乳制品进入米兰冬奥村，是中国乳业首次为境外冬奥会提供服务。适逢马牛春节，高飞团队又推出“接彩头”活动，联动京东、美团等平台，开启红包雨与黄金大奖，奖品涵盖出行、餐饮、娱乐、体育、文旅等多元场景。一系列营销举措，推动了销售转化。国际投行高盛预计，受益于春节时间较晚，以及冬奥营销的拉动作用，蒙牛1月份的常温奶销售，有望实现高单位数至双位数增长。3月3日元宵节这天，蒙牛在微博发文，预告世界杯赛事，无缝对接春节营销档。“今天是元宵节，更是2026FIFA世界杯倒计时100天！”蒙牛手握2026年、2030年两届世界杯，以及2027年女足世界杯的全球官方赞助权。去年1-6月，蒙牛的产品和品牌宣传及营销费用，约为44.8亿元，约占集团收入10.8%。在体育大年，不断刷脸，相关费用可能更高。“米兰冬奥会、美加墨世界杯即将拉开帷幕，我们将再次站上世界舞台。”在2026新年献词中，高飞团队写到，要乘势而上，做“难而正确的事”。推荐阅读230亿大麦娱乐，连开两家潮玩店日本小超市黑马，拒绝硬折扣","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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