财报“审判日”将至！互联网泡沫后甲骨文(ORCL.US)再次面临“斩杀线”考验

智通财经03-10

智通财经APP注意到，在投资者对 AI 日益增长的质疑声中，很少有股票比甲骨文(ORCL.US)受到的打击更沉重。而且，该公司即将公布的财报可能也无力改变这种情绪。自去年9月10日触及高点以来，甲骨文股价已累计下跌54%，是同期标准普尔500指数中表现最差的股票；今年开年以来已下跌22%，位列该指数表现最弱的25只股票之列。甲骨文上一次出现超过50%的跌幅还是在互联网泡沫破裂期间，当时该股花了数年...

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Oracle (ORCL.US) Faces 'Kill Line' Test Again After Dotcom Bubble","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.98,"ORCX":0.6,"ORCS":0.6,"ORCU":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP注意到，在投资者对 AI 日益增长的质疑声中，很少有股票比甲骨文(ORCL.US)受到的打击更沉重。而且，该公司即将公布的财报可能也无力改变这种情绪。自去年9月10日触及高点以来，甲骨文股价已累计下跌54%，是同期标准普尔500指数中表现最差的股票；今年开年以来已下跌22%，位列该指数表现最弱的25只股票之列。甲骨文上一次出现超过50%的跌幅还是在互联网泡沫破裂期间，当时该股花了数年时间才完全恢复。当前股市正高度关注各种风险——从AI开支、行业颠覆到伊朗战争——甲骨文将于周二盘后公布的第三季度财报，正迎头撞上急于寻找抛售理由的惊弓之鸟般的投资者。安德森资本管理公司首席投资官彼得·安德森表示，“它现在处于‘左右为难’的境地，”他协助监管着45亿美元的资产。这家企业软件公司预计将报告每股收益增长约30%，营收增长20%。根据共识预测，其云基础设施业务的销售额预计将飙升82%。通常情况下，这对甲骨文的股价是利好，但如果投资者认为其资本支出计划过于激进，股价仍可能受到惩罚。这正是微软和亚马逊这两家云计算巨头的遭遇，它们虽然报告了优于预期的业绩，但由于市场对AI开支的担忧，股价随后遭遇抛售。安德森表示，“如果它继续按照目前的方式砸钱，特别是在对AI资本支出的质疑声日益增强的情况下，这会引发更多关于其杠杆率、现金消耗和资产负债表实力的疑问，”“另一方面，如果它削减支出，又会引发关于其战略以及与更大型对手竞争能力的新质疑。”安德森目前不持有甲骨文股票，但他表示如果公司缩减资本支出且股价继续下跌，他会考虑买入。预计甲骨文在2026财年(截至5月)的资本支出将超过500亿美元，是去年支出的两倍多。据预测，到2029财年，这一数字将突破850亿美元。这种支出正在付出代价。根据汇总数据，该公司上季度报告了近100亿美元的负自由现金流，是其历史上最糟糕的一次，预计本分报告中该数字将为负73亿美元。2025财年是该公司自1990年以来首次出现负自由现金流，且预计这种情况将至少持续到2028财年。由于融资问题和OpenAI的需求变化，甲骨文与 OpenAI 已取消了在德克萨斯州扩建旗舰级AI数据中心的计划。此外，据传该公司正计划裁员数千人，以控制AI扩建带来的成本。为了扩建云基础设施产能，该公司计划今年通过债务和股权销售筹集高达500亿美元。反映杠杆风险的甲骨文五年期信用违约掉期(CDS)最近触及了2009年1月以来的最高水平。对AI的大量投资预计将会对现金流带来负面影响Zacks投资管理公司客户投资组合经理布莱恩·马尔伯里表示，“市场正在评估这种债务负担和支出是否能带来未来的增长，这种担忧必须得到认真对待，”该公司在多个投资组合中持有甲骨文股票。“只要甲骨文能证明支出最终能转化为正向现金流并对盈利做出贡献，我认为这是可以容忍的，但这仍是一个需要观察的指标。”甲骨文的投资者并非唯一急于看到股价对财报反应的人。此举也将对派拉蒙天舞产生影响，该公司斥资1110亿美元收购华纳兄弟探索的交易中，有457亿美元的股权由甲骨文主席拉里·埃里森设立的信托提供个人担保。近期甲骨文股价抛售的一个正面影响是，其估值变得更具吸引力。目前股价约为预期收益的19倍，远低于9月时超过45倍的高点，且接近其17倍的十年平均水平。当然，也有人认为跌幅已经过头了。分析师对甲骨文的12个月平均目标价接近260美元，而该股周一收于152美元左右，这意味着华尔街认为其未来一年有71%的上涨空间。根据追溯到2003年的数据，这是该股历史上隐含回报率最高的一次。杰富瑞分析师布伦特·蒂尔在3月5日的一份报告中写道，“我们认为市场可能忽略了甲骨文的上涨潜力和增长催化剂，”“我们看到了一个极具吸引力的配置机会，其驱动力包括罕见的增长再加速态势、高利润的核心软件业务，以及较低的长期AI侵蚀风险。”2026年科技股“七巨头”指数表现落后于标普500指数Zachs的马尔伯里认为，只要对AI产品的需求依然强劲，该股就应该具有吸引力。“市场对AI支出的乐观情绪确实已经耗尽，但只要数据中心还在建设，我们就对增长预测充满信心，”他说。“现在股票的势头已经被挤出，我们开始发现真正的价值。我认为这是一个买入机会。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2618932941","isCrawlerRequest":true}