光纤上涨周期还能维持多久？瑞银报告：取决于行业产能扩张节奏

智通财经03-11

以史为鉴，本轮光纤价格的上涨周期能维持多久？近日，瑞银发布一份研究报告，通过回顾历史上光纤现货价格的走势，来推测本轮光纤价格上涨趋势的持续性。瑞银认为，历史经验显示，行业龙头长飞光纤的股价走势，与光纤价格走势呈现出高度联动。换句话说，一旦光纤价格上涨周期结束，长飞光纤的股价也可能会见顶。瑞银认为，本轮光纤价格上行趋势的可持续性，将在很大程度上取决于行业产能扩张的节奏。截至目前，市场尚未出现大型产能...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2618923726?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-03-11 22:03","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2618923726","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"光纤上涨周期还能维持多久？瑞银报告：取决于行业产能扩张节奏","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>以史为鉴，本轮光纤价格的上涨周期能维持多久？近日，瑞银发布一份研究报告，通过回顾历史上光纤现货价格的走势，来推测本轮光纤价格上涨趋势的持续性。瑞银认为，历史经验显示，行业龙头长飞光纤的股价走势，与光纤价格走势呈现出高度联动。换句话说，一旦光纤价格上涨周期结束，长飞光纤的股价也可能会见顶。瑞银认为，本轮光纤价格上行趋势的可持续性，将在很大程度上取决于行业产能扩张的节奏。截至目前，市场尚未出现大型产能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260311221130a6b85ef7&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>光纤上涨周期还能维持多久？瑞银报告：取决于行业产能扩张节奏</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n光纤上涨周期还能维持多久？瑞银报告：取决于行业产能扩张节奏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-11 22:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260311221130a6b85ef7&s=b><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>以史为鉴，本轮光纤价格的上涨周期能维持多久？近日，瑞银发布一份研究报告，通过回顾历史上光纤现货价格的走势，来推测本轮光纤价格上涨趋势的持续性。瑞银认为，历史经验显示，行业龙头长飞光纤的股价走势，与光纤价格走势呈现出高度联动。换句话说，一旦光纤价格上涨周期结束，长飞光纤的股价也可能会见顶。瑞银认为，本轮光纤价格上行趋势的可持续性，将在很大程度上取决于行业产能扩张的节奏。截至目前，市场尚未出现大型产能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260311221130a6b85ef7&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"06869","symbol_name":"长飞光纤光缆","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260311221130a6b85ef7&s=b","article_id":"2618923726","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260311221130a6b85ef7&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618923726","pubTimestamp":1773237780,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"近日，瑞银发布一份研究报告，通过回顾历史上光纤现货价格的走势，来推测本轮光纤价格上涨趋势的持续性。换句话说，一旦光纤价格上涨周期结束，长飞光纤的股价也可能会见顶。瑞银认为，本轮光纤价格上行趋势的可持续性，将在很大程度上取决于行业产能扩张的节奏。瑞银通过渠道调研了解到，2026年年初至今光纤价格持续上涨，长飞光纤的股价走势也基本反映了这一趋势。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"06869":"长飞光纤光缆","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","SG9999006597.SGD":"United China-India Dynamic Growth SGD","BK1506":"5G概念","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","BK1523":"武汉本地概念股","BK1149":"通信设备"},"translate_title":"How Long Can the Fiber Rise Cycle Last? UBS Report: Depends on the pace of industry capacity expansion","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"06869":0.9},"content_text":"以史为鉴，本轮光纤价格的上涨周期能维持多久？近日，瑞银发布一份研究报告，通过回顾历史上光纤现货价格的走势，来推测本轮光纤价格上涨趋势的持续性。瑞银认为，历史经验显示，行业龙头长飞光纤的股价走势，与光纤价格走势呈现出高度联动。换句话说，一旦光纤价格上涨周期结束，长飞光纤的股价也可能会见顶。瑞银认为，本轮光纤价格上行趋势的可持续性，将在很大程度上取决于行业产能扩张的节奏。截至目前，市场尚未出现大型产能扩张公告，因此行业风险仍处于可控范围。Part.01历史经验：长飞光纤的规律长飞光纤的股价在历史上与光纤现货价格走势紧密挂钩，这一特征反映了行业背后的供需基本面变化。在2018年年中前的行业上行周期中，大规模4G网络建设和光纤到户（FTTH）工程的推进成为需求增长的核心驱动力，而行业供给始终处于相对紧张的状态，推动光纤价格持续走高。尽管2017年年中前后多家企业公布了大规模产能扩张计划，但彼时需求增长势头强劲，投资者并未对产能过剩问题过度担忧。然而，后续5G需求落地不及预期，且2018年底前行业激进的产能扩张计划基本落地，光纤价格随之大幅回落，长飞光纤的股价也同步走低。Part.02当下启示：产能扩张计划是核心本轮光纤价格的复苏始于2025年下半年，核心驱动因素包括：数据通信需求激增、海外电信市场需求回暖以及光纤无人机带来的新增需求，共同推动行业供给趋紧；同时，在经历数年行业下行周期后，行业整体供给基本持平，部分环节甚至出现供给收缩。瑞银通过渠道调研了解到，2026年年初至今光纤价格持续上涨，长飞光纤的股价走势也基本反映了这一趋势。瑞银在研报中指出，本轮光纤价格上行趋势的可持续性，将在很大程度上取决于行业产能扩张的节奏。若行业能保持供给自律，光纤价格有望维持在合理水平。截至目前，市场尚未出现大型产能扩张公告，行业风险仍处于可控范围。在经历上一轮行业周期后，光纤厂商的经营策略更为谨慎，在敲定大规模投资前，厂商会要求对需求的可持续性拥有更明确的判断依据。但需注意的是，行业内的激进产能扩张仍是核心潜在风险之一，需要持续跟踪监测。Part.03基本面改善核心逻辑获广泛认可自2025年第四季度以来，投资者对光纤行业的关注度持续提升。整体来看，对于行业供需格局改善、行业迎来拐点这一核心逻辑，投资者基本无异议。市场的核心分歧主要集中在两方面：一是光纤价格上涨能为企业带来多大的盈利弹性；二是激进的产能扩张是否会导致行业再次陷入产能过剩周期。瑞银注意到，买方机构对企业的盈利预期仍存在较大分歧，尚未形成明确共识；但随着近期光纤价格上涨，盈利预期已整体上修，为企业估值提升提供了支撑。同时，不少投资者认为，现阶段股价仍会维持波动状态，且受市场情绪影响较大。短期来看，行业核心催化因素包括两点：一是国内电信运营商即将公布的光缆招标结果；二是长飞光纤2026年第一季度业绩发布。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2618923726","isCrawlerRequest":true}