普来仕：料美联储对经济数据反应更趋“鸽派” 下半年或减息2至3次

智通财经03-09

智通财经APP获悉，普来仕(T. Rowe Price)首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci表示，美国经济目前同时受到多重因素影响，对通胀与需求均带来影响。整体而言，这些因素支持美联储在未来数次会议维持货币政策不变，以评估能源价格上升对经济的影响，以及自去年以来金融环境转趋宽松的效果。此外，尽管近几季就业增长呈下降趋势，但失业率却一直保持相当稳定，显示部分放缓可能属于结构性因素，而非劳动市场...

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Rowe Price)首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci表示，美国经济目前同时受到多重因素影响，对通胀与需求均带来影响。整体而言，这些因素支持美联储在未来数次会议维持货币政策不变，以评估能源价格上升对经济的影响，以及自去年以来金融环境转趋宽松的效果。此外，尽管近几季就业增长呈下降趋势，但失业率却一直保持相当稳定，显示部分放缓可能属于结构性因素，而非劳动市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1411597.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>普来仕：料美联储对经济数据反应更趋“鸽派” 下半年或减息2至3次</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n普来仕：料美联储对经济数据反应更趋“鸽派” 下半年或减息2至3次\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-09 16:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1411597.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，普来仕(T. Rowe Price)首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci表示，美国经济目前同时受到多重因素影响，对通胀与需求均带来影响。整体而言，这些因素支持美联储在未来数次会议维持货币政策不变，以评估能源价格上升对经济的影响，以及自去年以来金融环境转趋宽松的效果。此外，尽管近几季就业增长呈下降趋势，但失业率却一直保持相当稳定，显示部分放缓可能属于结构性因素，而非劳动市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1411597.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4550","symbol_name":"红杉资本持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1411597.html","article_id":"2618646533","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618646533","pubTimestamp":1773044541,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"不过，就业增长放缓为美联储在2026年下半年转向更鸽派立场铺路，如果油价在未来数周回落，利率整体方向应会逐步下行。展望未来，该行预期美联储在今年下半年对经济数据的反应将更趋鸽派。他预计今年下半年可能减息2至3次，高于目前市场预期的1至2次。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TROW":"普信集团","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPYI":"NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"translate_title":"Prix: It is expected that the Fed's reaction to economic data will be more \"dovish\" or cut interest rates 2 to 3 times in the second half of the year","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"TLT":2,"TROW":1.61,"SPYI":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"HYG":2,"UPRO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"LQD":2,"BOXX":2,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，普来仕(T. Rowe Price)首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci表示，美国经济目前同时受到多重因素影响，对通胀与需求均带来影响。整体而言，这些因素支持美联储在未来数次会议维持货币政策不变，以评估能源价格上升对经济的影响，以及自去年以来金融环境转趋宽松的效果。此外，尽管近几季就业增长呈下降趋势，但失业率却一直保持相当稳定，显示部分放缓可能属于结构性因素，而非劳动市场急剧转弱的周期性信号。这亦支持美联储暂时按兵不动，以观察这些经济交错因素的进一步影响。他提及，最新公布的就业数据出现较大跌幅。1月的就业报告或高估了经济强度，而2月的报告则可能在某程度上放大了疲弱程度。整体而言，失业率自去年第三季以来一直维持稳定。此外，美国经济亦受到多项因素共同影响，包括能源价格上升带来的通胀风险，以及由消费和资本开支增长所支撑的正面经济前景。不过，就业增长放缓为美联储在2026年下半年转向更鸽派立场铺路，如果油价在未来数周回落，利率整体方向应会逐步下行。他预期，美联储在3月减息的可能性不高，原因是1月的个人消费开支通胀数据短期内可能偏强，而联邦公开市场委员会亦需要在其双重使命之间平衡风险。展望未来，该行预期美联储在今年下半年对经济数据的反应将更趋鸽派。他预计今年下半年可能减息2至3次，高于目前市场预期的1至2次。若以未来12个月的政策路径来看，减息3至4次亦有可能，整体立场将较市场预期更为宽松。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.1","shortVersion":"4.42.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2618646533","isCrawlerRequest":true}