比亚迪兆瓦闪充发布会点评：二代刀片和兆瓦闪充新技术亮相，重点强调新车周期及海外放量

中泰证券03-09

事件：2026年3月5日，公司在深圳大运中心体育馆举行“闪充中国改变世界”发布会并正式发布“第二代刀片电池及闪充技术”。该技术创造了全球量产车的最快充电速度纪录：常温情况从10%电量至70%电量只需5分钟，而从10%电量到97%电量只用9分钟即可；另外该技术在低温情况下也具备非常优异的表现，在零下30度场景下从20%电量充电至到97%电量，只比常温多出3分钟充电时间。2026年年底前建设2万座闪充...

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同步启动“闪充中国”战略，预计到今年年底建设落成20000座闪充站，实现一二线城市3公里内、三四线城市5公里内、五六线城市6公里内就有闪充站，确保用户在城区90%区域的5公里内就能使用闪充服务，我们认为新技术开启的新车发布周期有望持续打开比亚迪国内购车需求。2026年向后展望，我们反复强调出口是公司长逻辑最重要支撑；出口方面，公司进一步加速自建船队+海外工厂建设。运力方面，2025年全年公司形成8艘滚装船规模的船队(均为7000/9200车位，合计运力约6.5万辆，假设单船年运输5次对应约32.5万辆运能)；产能方面，此前乌兹别克斯坦、泰国工厂已经投产，5月公司欧洲总部落地匈牙利，7月公司巴西乘用车工厂举行首车下线仪式，8月公司官宣马来西亚工厂项目，预计公司海外产能有望持续向上。此前我们在深度报告《比亚迪深度研究系列(2)：复盘丰田成功有迹可循，海外拓展星辰大海可期》中曾复盘丰田出海历程以此作为对比亚迪海外业务的研究参考：销量维度，1990和1999年丰田日本国内销量分别为250.4万辆和166.4万辆(-33.5%)，海外销量分别为237.0万辆和305.8万辆(+29%)；业绩维度，1990和1999年丰田整体净利润4314.5亿日元和4068.0亿日元(-5.7%)；丰田整体出现国内销量承压及整体业绩承压情况(海外销量增长)；然而，同期股价维度，1990-1999年期间丰田股价涨幅195%(同期日经指数-67%)，我们认为，参考丰田经营历程，出海业务有望在国内销量承压阶段对股价产生正向影响。盈利预测：预计公司25/26/27年将实现营收8370.9/9654.1/10806.9亿元(同比+8%/15%/12%)，归母净利润395.4/439.7/522.7亿元(同比-2%/+11%/+19%)，对应PE为21.6/19.4/16.3x，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：友商竞品推出、行业竞争加剧、价格战等","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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