瑞银：阿里搞AI不为赚钱，只为“保命”。一场比技术更残酷的AI生存战，阿里正在怎么打？

商业早八点03-09

2026年3月初，阿里通义千问团队发生了一场震动行业的人事地震——技术负责人林俊旸及多名核心成员离职。这一被业内称为“灵魂出走”的事件，让一直看好阿里“AI”的投资者慌了神！3月6日，瑞银发布重磅研报，揭示了一个残酷真相：阿里投入巨资搞AI，核心目的不是赚钱，而是“保命”。在这场比技术参数更残酷的AI生存战中，阿里究竟在打一场怎样的战争？01.“保命论”瑞银在2026年3月的中国AI行业专家调研...

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How is Ali fighting an AI survival battle that is more cruel than technology?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BBYY":0.6,"BABA":1.97,"KBAB":0.6,"BABX":0.6,"BABU":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"09988":1.97,"BABW":0.6},"content_text":"2026年3月初，阿里通义千问团队发生了一场震动行业的人事地震——技术负责人林俊旸及多名核心成员离职。这一被业内称为“灵魂出走”的事件，让一直看好阿里“AI”的投资者慌了神！3月6日，瑞银发布重磅研报，揭示了一个残酷真相：阿里投入巨资搞AI，核心目的不是赚钱，而是“保命”。在这场比技术参数更残酷的AI生存战中，阿里究竟在打一场怎样的战争？01.“保命论”瑞银在2026年3月的中国AI行业专家调研报告中，提出了一个颠覆性的观点：中国互联网巨头将AI视为“防御性基础设施”。核心判断战略目的：不是指望AI产品本身赚多少钱，而是确保自己的超级APP不被AI原生应用颠覆。估值逻辑：评估巨头AI价值的核心指标不是“模型订阅收入”，而是“核心业务的市占率是否因AI而稳固”。行业格局：中国AI正从“百团大战”转向“错位竞争”——巨头固守C端流量防线，新兴机构转向B端与出海。在这一框架下，阿里被瑞银特别看好，因其构建了独特的全栈AI能力，将Qwen大模型深度整合进电商和云计算生态，形成了难以复制的防御体系。02.“灵魂出走”背后林俊旸团队的离职，并非简单的技术人才流失，而是阿里AI战略从“技术理想主义”向“商业化落地”深刻转型的阵痛。1. 组织架构重组：从垂直整合到水平分工通义实验室正将Qwen团队从“垂直整合”体系拆分为预训练、后训练、文本、多模态等水平分工结构。这一调整旨在提升“人才密度”与规模化协同能力，适配商业化深度落地需求。2. 战略重心转移：技术理想主义 vs 商业现实林俊旸团队：更注重模型技术的优化与突破集团层面：更关注AI技术的商业化落地与生态整合双方在目标侧重上存在分歧，最终导致核心团队出走。3. 人才更替与国际化前DeepMind高级资深研究员周浩今年初加入阿里通义实验室，接替离职的后训练负责人。这标志着阿里正在引入更多具有国际背景的AI人才，加速技术迭代。尽管核心人员变动引发短期震荡，但阿里高层强调千问模型依然是集团当前最核心、优先级最高的战略工程。这次调整本质上是阿里从“技术驱动”向“商业驱动”转型的必然阵痛。03.阿里的“保命”打法在这场生存战中，阿里祭出了三张王牌：全栈技术能力、深厚商业生态、明确商业化路径。1. 技术护城河：“通云哥”黄金三角阿里是全球唯二与谷歌并列，在大模型、云、芯片三大领域均具备顶级实力的科技公司：模型层：通义千问系列在开源社区影响力巨大，衍生模型超18万个云服务层：阿里云在中国AI云市场占据35.8%份额，超过第二到第四名总和芯片层：平头哥自研AI芯片与英伟达、AMD深度合作，构建算力闭环2. 生态防御：AI加固商业帝国城墙阿里AI战略的核心不是另起炉灶，而是给已有城池加固城墙：电商防御：AI驱动的智能搜索使相关商品点击率提升25%，转化率提高18%即时零售反击：通过AI优化调度，2025年双11期间即时零售订单同比增长超120%，市场份额反超美团场景整合：千问App已深度整合淘宝、高德、支付宝、阿里健康等生态场景，用户可通过一句指令完成“订外卖—查健康—买机票—写周报—订酒店”全流程3. 商业化验证：从烧钱到造血与仍在探索变现路径的AI初创公司不同，阿里AI已显现明确的商业化进展：直接AI收入：2025财年AI相关直接收入超200亿元，同比增长140%云业务增长：AI相关产品收入连续九个季度三位数增长，带动阿里云季度收入同比增长34%效率提升：通过AI技术应用，客户服务人力成本降低30%，内容创作效率提升5倍04.生存战的残酷现实瑞银报告揭示了一个更残酷的现实：如果巨头认为B端是保卫云份额的核心战场，它们完全可能把大模型能力以极低价格甚至免费搭售给企业客户——这将直接摧毁初创公司在B端的生存空间。阿里的双重防御策略：C端固守：通过千问App深度绑定10亿用户的生活场景，防止被AI原生应用颠覆B端进攻：通过阿里云为企业提供一站式AI解决方案，同时具备随时发起价格战的资本实力这种“既能守又能攻”的双重能力，正是瑞银看好阿里的深层次原因。05.三大挑战1. 团队震荡与技术延续性千问核心团队离职可能影响技术迭代节奏。新的管理团队需要时间磨合，可能影响产品迭代速度。2. 短期盈利压力阿里在AI和即时零售领域的大规模投入导致短期盈利能力承压。2026财年第三季度调整后EBITDA预计同比大幅下滑56%，市场需要看到AI投资对核心业务KPI的实际提升。3. 白热化市场竞争字节跳动：豆包日活已破亿，2026年计划投入1600亿腾讯：元宝依托微信13亿用户生态，投入10亿红包推广百度：文心一言月活突破2亿，深耕搜索与创作场景06.一场关于生态存亡的战争千问团队的“灵魂出走”与瑞银的“保命论”，共同揭示：这早已不是一场关于技术参数的竞赛，而是一场关于商业生态存亡的战争。阿里正在打的，是一场典型的“帝国防御战”：战略目标：不是创造新世界，而是防止旧世界被颠覆核心战术：用AI加固电商、云计算、本地生活等核心业务的护城河终极武器：“芯片-云-模型-应用”的全栈能力，以及随时发起价格战的资本实力在这场生存战中，技术理想主义必须让位于商业现实主义。千问团队的离职，正是这种转型的阵痛体现。而瑞银的“保命论”，则是对这场战争本质最犀利的洞察。阿里成功与否，取决于其能否将AI能力深度融入10亿用户的日常生活，构建一道任何AI原生应用都无法跨越的生态护城河。如今的阿里，正以其独有的全栈能力和生态深度，在这场比技术更残酷的生存战中，探索一条“以守为攻”的生存之道。那么，你还看好Ai阿里么？","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2618642753","isCrawlerRequest":true}