保险板块今年跌超9%！基本面稳健为何难挡回调

21世纪经济报道03-09

自2026年春节后开市以来，保险股持续下挫，今日收盘延续跌势。　　截至3月9日收盘，保险指数（882246.WI）收跌2.06%，今年以来累计跌幅为9.02%。　　具体看A股，今日五大上市险企均收跌，无一红盘。中国人寿（601628.SH）跌1.15%，报42.2元；中国人保（601319.SH）跌1.75%，报8.44元；中国平安（601318.SH）跌2.03%，报61.4元；新华保险（...

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Why Solid Fundamentals Are Difficult to Stop a Pullback","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82318":0.6,"601318":1,"601319":1,"601336":1,"601601":1,"601628":1,"HPAD.SI":0.6,"PAImain":0.6,"03145":0.6,"PNGAY":0.6,"CSM":1,"02318":0.75},"content_text":"自2026年春节后开市以来，保险股持续下挫，今日收盘延续跌势。\n　　截至3月9日收盘，保险指数（882246.WI）收跌2.06%，今年以来累计跌幅为9.02%。\n　　具体看A股，今日五大上市险企均收跌，无一红盘。中国人寿（601628.SH）跌1.15%，报42.2元；中国人保（601319.SH）跌1.75%，报8.44元；中国平安（601318.SH）跌2.03%，报61.4元；新华保险（601336.SH）跌2.45%，报71.6元；中国太保（601601.SH）跌2.65%，报38.2元。\n　　港股也均收跌，中国人寿（2628.HK）跌0.76%，报28.58港元；中国人民保险集团（1339.HK）跌2.03%，报6.26%港元；新华保险（1336.HK）跌1.88%，报52.15港元；中国太保（2601.HK）跌2.18%，报33.24港元；中国平安（2318.HK）跌3.09%，报62.65港元。\n　　为何保险业基本面稳健却难掩股价回调？苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟告诉记者，市场对2025年4季度股市回调可能拖累保险公司年报业绩存在担忧，形成短期盈利预期压制。另外，保险股价回调还受主要保险公司未公布正面盈利预告、中东地缘冲突升温等影响。\n　　尽管保险股持续下挫，但多家机构仍看好低估值保险股的估值修复机会。\n　　资本市场回调、地缘冲突等因素叠加，保险股承压\n　　2026年开年保险股持续走强，彼时多只保险股股价创历史新高。如在1月6日，中国平安A股，新华保险、中国太保的A股和H股股价均创历史新高。新华保险、中国太保当时已连续2个交易日创历史新高。\n　　然而，就在2026年春节开市后，保险H和A股标的调整较明显，不复股价“开门红”态势，跌势延续至今。截至3月9日收盘，保险指数（882246.WI）收跌2.06%，今年以来累计跌幅为9.02%。\n　　今年保险股普遍走低，受多重因素叠加影响。武泽伟告诉记者，首先，市场对2025年4季度股市回调可能拖累保险公司年报业绩存在担忧，形成短期盈利预期压制。\n　　当前，保险机构股票配置已创近年新高。据国家金融监督管理总局披露，截至2025年末，保险公司股票配置余额约达3.73万亿元，全年净增1.31万亿元，约占资金运用余额的9.68%，该比例创下自2022年二季度监管系统披露以来的最高水平。\n　　记者梳理发现，尽管行业全年盈利良好，但在2025年四季度，资本市场波动有所加大，A股和港股在震荡中收官。Wind数据显示，去年四季度沪深300指数下跌0.23%，创业板指下跌1.08%；此外，恒生指数下跌4.56%，恒生中国企业指数下跌6.72%。\n　　资本市场的回调将对险企当期损益表产生影响。受新保险合同会计准则影响，保险公司股票投资中FVTPL占比高，股价浮盈对当期利润影响大。这种结构使得保险公司在股市上涨时能更充分地享受投资收益；但在市场下跌时，也会同等程度地放大亏损风险，增加业绩波动性。\n　　其次，武泽伟认为，宽基ETF持续放量对金融权重板块产生显著卖压，带动保险、券商、银行等多板块共振下跌。\n　　同时，春节后宏观数据进入空窗期，缺乏保费收入等关键数据支撑，叠加中东地缘冲突升温带来的避险情绪，共同压制了板块表现。\n　　对于保险股价回调原因，开源证券分析称，一方面，源于开年前后保险板块有所抢跑上涨带来的高基数；另外，对AI冲击的担忧也对保险板块带来负面压制，如对保险中介等销售渠道或有替代，对白领就业和经济带来潜在冲击等。\n　　险企基本面仍稳健，负债、资产两端向好\n　　尽管春节开市至今，保险股持续下挫，但多家机构仍看好低估值保险股的估值修复机会。\n　　近期，摩根大通发表报告指，随着业绩公布期临近，保险板块将重拾动力。五大关键催化剂包括：加强股东总回报的讨论；管理层对2026财年寿险销售前景的乐观指引；2025年第四季偿付能力资本状况稳健；资金成本下降；对寿险准备金合约服务边际（CSM）恢复的信心增强。\n　　除政策利好释放外，行业基本面改善是支持保险股走强的关键驱动因素。从负债端来看，随着预定利率下调，加上分红险转型将推动保险业负债成本持续优化，利差损压力将有所缓解。\n　　此外，存款搬家也有望驱动保险业新单与NBV增长。国金证券分析师舒思勤等认为，“居民储蓄需求依然强烈，银行息差压力下中长期存款供给愈发稀缺，叠加大量定期存款将于2026年大量到期，保险作为低风险偏好类的储蓄产品，将继续承接部分居民的储蓄迁移。”\n　　据国家金融监督管理总局发布的数据，2025年全年，保险公司原保险保费收入6.1万亿元，同比增长7.4%；赔款与给付支出2.4万亿元，同比增长6.2%；新增保单件数1168亿件，同比增长12.6%。\n　　再看资产端，权益市场回暖叠加高股息资产配置，推动投资收益率提升，缓解利差损压力。截至2025年四季度末，我国保险资金运用余额站上38万亿元关口，较当年初增长15.7%，全年增速为2021年以来最高水平。\n　　最后，估值修复逻辑清晰。当前保险股PEV处于历史低位，与行业盈利稳定性、ROE水平显著背离，修复空间巨大。\n　　2026年保险股能否呈现走强趋势？南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉此前告诉记者，“今年保险板块具备延续上涨的基础，但需辩证看待。”\n　　一方面，支撑逻辑持续强化。负债端高景气有望延续，居民保障需求与储蓄替代逻辑未变；资产端增量资金可期，险资入市空间仍存，且若权益市场维持温和上行，投资端将形成良性循环；政策端“长钱长投”导向不变，监管支持力度或进一步加码。\n　　另一方面，他提示需关注两大变量：一是估值修复节奏，若短期涨幅过快，或面临获利回吐压力；二是负债端持续性，需观察产品结构优化与代理人渠道改革成效。\n　　长期看，行业正从“规模驱动”转向“价值成长”，头部险企凭借资负匹配优势更具韧性。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.38.0","shortVersion":"4.38.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2618625102","isCrawlerRequest":true}