“全赢或全输”式炒美股：预测市场正把复杂的交易变成全民游戏

智通财经03-09

智通财经APP获悉，押注标普500指数走势的传统方式，是在期权市场买入与约定行权价挂钩的看涨或看跌期权。但如今，一种新选择正在兴起：投资者可通过Kalshi或Polymarket平台，利用事件合约对个股与指数能否触及特定点位进行“全赢或全输”式押注，即便投资新手也能参与。“这种方式把复杂的操作简化到人人都能理解的程度，消除了市场给人带来的畏难情绪，”因电影《大空头》而声名鹊起的基金经理Danny ...

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transactions into national games","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"BMAY":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":0.81,"GPIX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"XDTE":0.6,"SPLV":0.6,"IVOO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVW":0.6,"JEPI":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"RSP":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.61,"UPRO":0.6,"SPYV":0.6,"SPYG":0.6,"VOOV":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"VTV":0.6,"SPMO":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"VTI":0.6,"VOO":0.61},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，押注标普500指数走势的传统方式，是在期权市场买入与约定行权价挂钩的看涨或看跌期权。但如今，一种新选择正在兴起：投资者可通过Kalshi或Polymarket平台，利用事件合约对个股与指数能否触及特定点位进行“全赢或全输”式押注，即便投资新手也能参与。“这种方式把复杂的操作简化到人人都能理解的程度，消除了市场给人带来的畏难情绪，”因电影《大空头》而声名鹊起的基金经理Danny Moses表示，他曾在自己的播客中推广Kalshi平台。“但话说回来，你得仔细阅读规则，清楚自己交易的是什么。”长期以来，预测市场的焦点集中在体育、大选与地缘政治事件上。而近期，相关平台纷纷上线与股价、指数关键点位挂钩的合约，交易量持续攀升。其运作机制十分简单：交易者以每份1美元的价格买入合约，若某合约售价为4美分，意味着市场认为该事件发生的概率为4%。周三，Kalshi平台上预测标普500指数年末收于8000-8200点区间的合约报价正是4美分——一笔2190美元的押注，潜在收益接近44000美元。而在传统期权市场，若以2190美元权利金买入8000/8200看涨价差期权，只有指数突破目标区间下限才能获利，单张合约潜在收益上限约2万美元，投资者还需考虑波动率、时间损耗等影响每日盈亏的复杂因素。相比之下，前者操作更简单直观，对许多散户交易者极具吸引力。这一市场未来的发展方向，很大程度上将取决于监管态度。Kalshi的合约受美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)监管，而主要运营于境外的Polymarket则基本不受美国监管约束。不过，这类平台新增股市相关押注，也可能引来美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的介入。目前，这类产品究竟归属哪家监管机构管辖尚不明确，已引发部分市场参与者担忧，尤其Kalshi相关产品已正式上线交易。芝加哥期权交易所全球市场(Cboe Global Markets)首席执行官Craig Donohue在去年9月两大监管机构联合举办的圆桌会议上直言：“无论从法律定义还是经济实质来看，这类产品都理应被认定为证券产品，在SEC监管的交易所上市交易。”这些平台还因其他问题受到联邦与州议员审查，包括涉嫌内幕交易、涉军事行动合约合法性等。美国多个州已对相关平台提起诉讼，将其定义为非法赌博机构。就目前而言，这类预测市场的体量仍然相对较小。自去年12月底以来，Kalshi用户对标普500年末点位的押注交易额已超100万美元;而在传统期权市场，仅12月31日到期的标普500期权，每日名义交易额就超过1亿美元。尽管如此，预测平台与传统期权市场的融合趋势已十分明显。纳斯达克(NDAQ.US)、芝商所(CME.US)、芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE.US)等主流交易所均已推出针对指数与金融市场事件的二元押注产品，这本身就是对该模式受欢迎程度的认可。花旗美国股票交易策略主管Stuart Kaiser表示，投资机构也开始对此产生兴趣。“我确实注意到，部分客户正积极关注预测市场，态度和当初试探加密货币资产时有些相似：带着几分谨慎，”他表示，“核心问题在于市场深度。如果你是管理数十亿美元的对冲基金，在预测市场里真正能完成多大规模的交易?”预测市场或许在深度和流动性上无法与期权市场相提并论，但两者得出的概率预测却可能非常接近。2月中旬，Kalshi合约显示标普500年末收于8000-8200点的概率为6%;而据Kaiser提供的当时报价，场外衍生品市场给出的概率约为7%。在预测市场支持者看来，概率如此接近，正是群体智慧的体现：普通散户的集体判断，与博士团队搭建的专业模型相差无几。不过，如今的预测市场早已不是单纯的散户博弈。服务顶尖交易台的做市商同样在左右预测市场定价。例如，日均交易量达4万亿美元的上市期权市场主力机构Susquehanna International Group，同时也在为Kalshi提供流动性。对冲基金Oraclum Capital首席投资官Vuk Vukovic表示：“Kalshi价格与上市期权走势趋同，恰恰说明其定价体系具备一致性，且有机构资金在维持价格合理。”也有业内人士认为，相比早已成熟的工具，预测市场在押注点位目标上反而更笨拙。BCA Research首席策略师Marko 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