广发证券：如何看待比亚迪(01211)“闪充”生态影响下的竞争格局演绎?

智通财经03-10

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，比亚迪股份(01211)发布第二代刀片电池及闪充技术。考虑到国内不同区域内的消费者对不同动力类型的车型需求差异以及消费者对闪充生态不同感知度的选择意愿差异，投资上该行建议“比亚迪汽车+吉利汽车(00175)”组合应对，并根据建立的跟踪体系进行总仓位及分布仓位的动态响应。广发证券主要观点如下：比亚迪发布第二代刀片电池及闪充技术根据公司官网，26年3月5日比亚迪...

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ecology?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80175":0.6,"81211":0.6,"01211":1.96,"002594":1.96,"GELYY":0.6,"EVS.SI":0.6,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"BYDDY":1.96},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，比亚迪股份(01211)发布第二代刀片电池及闪充技术。考虑到国内不同区域内的消费者对不同动力类型的车型需求差异以及消费者对闪充生态不同感知度的选择意愿差异，投资上该行建议“比亚迪汽车+吉利汽车(00175)”组合应对，并根据建立的跟踪体系进行总仓位及分布仓位的动态响应。广发证券主要观点如下：比亚迪发布第二代刀片电池及闪充技术根据公司官网，26年3月5日比亚迪召开“闪充中国改变世界”发布会。正式发布：第二代刀片电池及闪充技术，创造全球量产最快充电速度新纪录，从10%到70%，只用5分钟就能充好;从10%到97%，只用9分钟就能充饱;零下30度，从20%到97%，只比常温多3分钟。同步启动“闪充中国”战略，在全国大批量建设闪充站，预计到26年年底建设落成20000座闪充站(截至26年3月5日已建成4239座)，其中比亚迪将与全国充电网络的运营商协同合作，以“闪充站中站”模式加速建设，预计到年底建成18000座，高速闪充站将建设2000座。考虑公司当前稳价提质需求和外部约束，该行预计搭载闪充的新车上市节奏或相对缓和参考比亚迪此前技术换代时车型上市节奏，该行判断公司有如下两种新车发布节奏：(1)一定程度上放缓新车上市节奏，进而可以减小公司在车型换代期间对经销商和自身业绩的压力;(2)快速清库存的同时加快新车上市节奏，此做法可以加速消费者对公司闪充生态的认知，但同时对经销商和公司自身盈利或有阶段性冲击;综合考虑当前公司对稳质提价的需求及行业外在的反内卷约束，该行预计公司选择放缓新车上市节奏，实现新老车型库存平稳过渡的概率或更大。“闪充”生态影响下的竞争格局演绎推演和跟踪体系建立考虑消费者对“闪充”生态的感知差异，该行假设两种场景：(1)若消费者对闪充感知度强，比亚迪新车份额提升，则公司相关资本开支能够较快回收进入“正向循环”;(2)若消费者对闪充感知度较弱，新车销量不及预期，同时又面临外部的“反内卷”约束，则闪充生态的投入产出比需要审慎测算。考虑到消费者需求的不确定性，投资上该行建议“比亚迪汽车+吉利汽车”组合应对，同时该行建立如下数据跟踪体系：(1)闪充分省份建设数量的月度跟踪;(2)上述基建变化下该区域内的EV/PHEV/REEV的月度渗透率变化;(3)分价格区间典型竞品组合内车型的月度终端份额变化，包括EV和PHEV竞品的份额变化，以此衡量消费者对闪充的选择意愿。风险提示：行业景气度下降;竞争加剧;相关政策推进不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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