中信证券研究：海外宏观｜HALO会是持续主线吗？

市场资讯03-11

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　来源：中信证券研究　　文|李翀崔嵘韦昕澄　　市场关于AI的叙事从“AI Bubble”转变为“AI Disruption”和“HALO”，这标志着市场已从“系统性泡沫定价”过渡至“结构性分化定价”。市场开始重新评估谁能受益于资源瓶颈、谁将受到替代冲击、谁具备生存确定性。市场由高度集中状态进入Winner、...

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 韦昕澄\n　　市场关于AI的叙事从“AI Bubble”转变为“AI Disruption”和“HALO”，这标志着市场已从“系统性泡沫定价”过渡至“结构性分化定价”。市场开始重新评估谁能受益于资源瓶颈、谁将受到替代冲击、谁具备生存确定性。市场由高度集中状态进入Winner、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2026-03-11/doc-inhqqqfx5686657.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0405327494.USD","symbol_name":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2026-03-11/doc-inhqqqfx5686657.shtml","article_id":"2618299645","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618299645","pubTimestamp":1773189120,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　市场关于AI的叙事从“AI Bubble”转变为“AI Disruption”和“HALO”，这标志着市场已从“系统性泡沫定价”过渡至“结构性分化定价”。HALO不等同于结构性赢家，单纯基于生存确定性的防御配置难以构成长期主线，更多是阶段性风格轮动的体现。　　美股市场围绕AI的核心叙事由“AI 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A(dist)","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU1997245094.SGD":"安联神州A股基金AT Acc SGD","06030":"中信证券","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2495084118.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"ATH\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK0183":"MSCI概念","LU1997244956.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC A","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0012":"证金概念"},"translate_title":"CITIC Securities Research: Overseas Macro | Will HALO be the Continuous Main Line?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1.5,"06030":1.5,"HALO":1.5},"content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　来源：中信证券研究\n　　文|李翀  崔嵘  韦昕澄\n　　市场关于AI的叙事从“AI Bubble”转变为“AI Disruption”和“HALO”，这标志着市场已从“系统性泡沫定价”过渡至“结构性分化定价”。市场开始重新评估谁能受益于资源瓶颈、谁将受到替代冲击、谁具备生存确定性。市场由高度集中状态进入Winner、Survivor与Loser分化的阶段，这一结构性变化既体现在美股内部，也体现在国别资产之间。我们认为HALO本质上是对低替代风险资产的一次性生存溢价重估，是Survivor。HALO不等同于结构性赢家，单纯基于生存确定性的防御配置难以构成长期主线，更多是阶段性风格轮动的体现。\n　　▍“AI Bubble”担忧降温，系统性估值风险阶段性回落。\n　　美股市场围绕AI的核心叙事由“AI Bubble”转向“AI Disruption”和“HALO”，背后是对AI持续发展潜力的认可。“AI Bubble”担忧降温，叠加美股AI较好的盈利表现为叙事转变提供了基本面支撑，市场已从“系统性泡沫定价”过渡至“结构性分化定价”。\n　　▍市场阶段转换，Winner-Survivor-Loser结构分化。\n　　AI叙事的第一阶段核心逻辑是算力扩张与AI资本开支驱动，体现为美国Mega Cap主导的高度集中结构。进入2026年，市场开始重新评估谁能受益于资源瓶颈、谁将受到替代冲击、谁具备生存确定性。市场由高度集中状态进入Winner、Survivor与Loser分化的阶段。这一结构性变化既体现在美股内部，也体现在国别资产之间。\n　　美股内部，进入2026年，美伊冲突爆发前，AI基建、能源电力、半导体设备及相关物理资产阶段性走强，成为Winner；部分替代风险较高的软件类资产表现承压，成为Loser；除了与AI相关的Winner外，一类更广泛的“重资产+低淘汰”资产开始获得资金关注，即所谓的“HALO”，成为Survivor。\n　　国别层面，进入2026年，美伊冲突爆发前，在存储芯片需求爆发的推动下，韩国股市显著跑赢其他主要市场，成为Winner；欧洲市场则因行业结构被视为阶段性Survivor（HALO）；以高人力密集服务与外包属性为特征的印度市场近期表现相对滞后，成为阶段性的Loser。\n　　▍HALO本质是防御性生存溢价，非结构性增长主线。\n　　HALO的出现具有明确的时间顺序特征，其逻辑建立在Loser被定价之后。因此，HALO本质上是对低替代风险资产的一次性生存溢价重估。HALO不等同于结构性赢家。单纯基于生存确定性的防御配置难以构成长期主线。真正具备持续超额收益潜力的资产应当位于AI扩张路径的关键节点，与资源瓶颈或技术升级方向形成深度绑定，具备盈利弹性的特征。因此，我们认为HALO交易更多是阶段性风格轮动的体现，而非新的长期增长范式。在AI没有明确的新方向时，HALO值得关注；一旦AI扩张方向明确，则资金会重新拥抱高增长。\n　　▍风险因素：\n　　美股头部AI企业出现集体性盈利失速或资本开支回报率被系统性证伪；通胀超预期上升，美联储超预期鹰派；地缘局势超预期发展，市场风险偏好明显下降。\n\n\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：石秀珍 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