郭明𫓹预测 2026 苹果笔记本出货量同比增 20~25%

IT之家03-11 14:50

IT之家 3 月 11 日消息，天风国际证券分析师郭明𫓹今天（3 月 11 日）在其 Medium 平台发布博文，预估 2026 年苹果 MacBook Neo 笔记本的出货量达到 450~500 万台，这一数据展现了苹果极强的市场号召力，也将成为苹果 2026 年业绩增长的核心引擎。郭明𫓹预测 MacBook Neo 将带动 2026 年 MacBook 机型总出货量达到 2500 万台，有望...

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20~25%，重返疫情时期巅峰，并成为 2026 年全球笔记本市场中唯一的增长亮点。在供应链方面，广达目前是 MacBook Neo 的独家组装厂，但鸿海近期有望成为第二供应商。值得注意的是，立讯精密正积极争取 Neo 2 的新产品导入（NPI）。尽管此前市场预期 Neo 2 会配备触控面板以对抗 Chromebook，但最新调查显示该机型可能不会采用此配置。此外，Neo 的出货动能将随“返校季”与年末旺季逐季增强。在屏幕演进路径上，郭明𫓹预估苹果于 2026 年第四季度末或 2027 年年初重大升级高端产品线 MacBook Pro 届时将首次采用触控 OLED 面板。相比之下，MacBook Air 普及 OLED 面板的时间点较晚，预计要等到 2028 年或 2029 年。从宏观策略来看，苹果正利用内存市场的波动实施“降维打击”。由于 Windows 竞品在 2025 年储备的低成本内存库存将在 2026 年上半年耗尽，多数 Windows 厂商为反映成本上涨，可能于 2026 年第二季度起上调售价。苹果则凭借强大的成本吸收能力维持价格竞争力，旨在趁乱扩大市场占有率。这种“重市占、轻短期毛利”的策略不仅体现在 MacBook Neo 上，也同样适用于 iPhone 17e。郭明𫓹认为，只要苹果的硬件市占率持续增长，就能带动高毛利率的服务业务同步扩张。更长远来看，当端侧 AI 应用爆发时，拥有庞大装机量的苹果将成为最大的行业受惠者。IT之家附上相关截图如下：","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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