英伟达GTC&OFC两大科技大会，光通信板块的机遇

行研蜂03-10

一、英伟达GTC大会2026年3月16日至19日，英伟达将在美国加州举办年度最重要的AI与算力大会GTC 2026。根据广发证券报告，预计展会亮点包括：1)Rubin的再度强调：凭借HBM4技术(相比谷歌的v8AXHBM3e更具优势)以及更优的系统设计，Rubin将显著提升英伟达的产品竞争力，其推理/训练性能分别可达GB300的5倍/3.5倍。2)用于推理的LPU：Open AI公布了其GPT-...

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2026大会将以CPO（光电共封装）为核心主轴，并全面辐射光通信产业链的关键演进：聚焦3.2T光模块量产节奏与OCS架构渗透；紧盯200G EML/400mw CW激光器的扩产，以及微环调制器、薄膜铌酸锂与硅光异质键合等前沿技术的突破；同时，卫星星间通信将成为跨界延伸的重要增量看点。三、光通信板块有哪些机遇随着GPU与ASIC快速升级迭代，算力的边际效应正逐渐受制于网络带宽的物理极限。算力与运力的“剪刀差”，迫使产业链重心向互联技术倾斜。摩根士丹利最新报告指出，受益于AI数据中心速率和投资的提升，在基础预期下，光通信市场规模将从2025年的约300亿美元飙升至2028年的650亿美元以上，年复合增长率（CAGR）高达约30% 。随着网络速率提升和功耗瓶颈显现，未来几年将催生出五大增量市场 ：基于此，大摩也对光通信领域四大核心标的全面上调目标价，过去一年，光通信四大龙头（ 康宁  , Lumentum  , Ciena  , Coherent  ）平均涨幅超300%，当前估值已普遍来到2028年预期的30-40x。康宁 ：大摩最看好的长线标的，给予目标价127美元 。核心逻辑在于市场尚未将Scale-up中“铜退光进”的巨大弹性计入估值（这主要将在2028年之后爆发），这种预期差使其具备长期的增长窗口和极佳的安全边际 。Lumentum  ：大摩态度最为谨慎，目标价520美元 。LITE当前执行力极佳，但高估值隐含了其营业利润率必须从FY25的约10%飙升至FY28的35%以上 。一旦EML供应缓解或硅光加速降价，维持这种盈利能力的风险极高 。Coherent  & Ciena  ：均给予“平配”评级，目标价分别为250美元和280美元 。两家公司均大幅受益于AI和DCI浪潮，但大摩认为当前的估值倍数已经较为充分地反映了这些利好预期，进一步扩张的空间有限 。整体来看，大摩长线首推康宁： 市场尚未充分认知“铜退光进”带来的长期业绩弹性，估值存在显著预期差，其增长动能将跨越 2028 年形成长尾应。相对看淡Lumentum： 当前估值已提前透支 EML 涨价带来的高毛利及 CPO 增量预期。考虑到后续业绩对激光器定价高度敏感，维持高盈利水平的确定性存疑。从国外机构报告来看，重点关注：1、关注CPO（光电共封装）渗透进展；2、光进铜退带来光纤的估值重塑；3、关注OCS架构渗透进展。对应利好国内上市公司：长飞光纤、源杰科技、长光华芯、天孚通讯、汇绿生态等本文资料来源于公司公告、新闻、机构公开研报、公开网站等，其内容仅作为自己研究整理，不保证有效真实，也不构成投资建议，如有侵权请联系删除。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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