燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：地缘冲突+气温回暖，美气回落、欧洲&中国气价大涨；重视资源价值首华燃气+具备长协成本优势企业新奥股份、新奥能源、九丰能源

东吴证券03-08

（以下内容从东吴证券《燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：地缘冲突+气温回暖，美气回落、欧洲&中国气价大涨；重视资源价值首华燃气+具备长协成本优势企业新奥股份、新奥能源、九丰能源》研报附件原文摘录）投资要点价格跟踪：地缘冲突叠加气温回暖，美国气价回落、欧洲&中国气价大涨。截至2026/03/06，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚JKM/中国LNG出厂/中国LNG到岸价周环比变动-3.5%/+56.3%/+46.5%/+...

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Emphasis on resource value Shouhua Gas + ENN, ENN Energy and JOVO Energy, enterprises with long-term cost advantages","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01193":0.9,"02688":1.5,"01083":0.9},"content_text":"（以下内容从东吴证券《燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：地缘冲突+气温回暖，美气回落、欧洲&中国气价大涨；重视资源价值首华燃气+具备长协成本优势企业新奥股份、新奥能源、九丰能源》研报附件原文摘录）投资要点价格跟踪：地缘冲突叠加气温回暖，美国气价回落、欧洲&中国气价大涨。截至2026/03/06，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚JKM/中国LNG出厂/中国LNG到岸价周环比变动-3.5%/+56.3%/+46.5%/+20.5%/+86.8%至0.7/4.3/4/2.9/4.9元/方。供需分析：1）地缘冲突推高气价&天气转暖压制气价，美国天然气市场价格周环比-3.5%。截至2026/02/27，储气量周环比-1320亿立方英尺至18860亿立方英尺，同比+7.2%。2）地缘冲突带来气源供应恐慌，欧洲气价周环比+56.3%。2025M1-11，欧洲天然气消费量为3964亿方，同比+3.5%。2026/2/26~2026/3/4，欧洲天然气供给周环比-16.2%至82510GWh；其中，来自库存消耗5776GWh，周环比-72.2%；来自LNG接收站38095GWh，周环比-0.6%；来自挪威北海管道气26865GWh，周环比-1.6%。2026/02/28~2026/03/06，欧洲燃气发电出力提升，欧洲日平均燃气发电量周环比+8.2%、同比-38.6%至1019.6GWh。截至2026/03/05，欧洲天然气库存337TWh（326亿方），同比-87.6TWh；库容率29.52%，同比-7.7pct，周环比-0.6pct。3）地缘冲突推涨LNG到岸价，国内气价跟随上涨，周环比+20.5%。2025M1-12，我国天然气表观消费量同比+2.3%至4332亿方，原因或为2024年冬季偏暖，影响了2025M1-3采暖用气需求。2025M1-12，产量同比+6.3%至2619亿方，进口量同比-3%至1799亿方。2025年12月，国内液态天然气进口均价3466元/吨，环比+2.4%，同比-18.4%；国内气态天然气进口均价2444元/吨，环比+0.7%，同比-11.3%；天然气整体进口均价3088元/吨，环比+3.5%，同比-15.9%。截至2026/03/06，国内进口接收站库存392.16万吨，同比+11.23%，周环比-0.29%；国内LNG厂内库存74.04万吨，同比+34.06%，周环比-4.96%。顺价进展：2022~2026M2，全国68%(197个)地级及以上城市进行了居民顺价，提价幅度为0.22元/方。2024年龙头城燃公司价差0.53~0.54元/方，配气费合理值0.6元/方+，价差仍存10%修复空间，顺价仍将继续。重视资源价值首华燃气+具备长协成本优势企业新奥股份、新奥能源、九丰能源。1）美伊冲突导致霍尔木兹海峡封锁，对三大天然气指数的影响程度排序：JKM（亚洲）>TTF（欧洲）>HH（美国）。霍尔木兹海峡封锁对JKM和TTF产生直接影响，影响亚洲13%的供给，影响欧洲3%的供给。对HH产生间接影响（霍尔木兹海峡封锁后美气出口需求提升）。2026/3/6，HH/TTF/JKM、布油周环比变动-3.5%/+56.3%/+46.5%、+27.9%至2.9/17.5/15.7美元/MMBtu、92.7美元/桶；美-欧、美-亚之间价差与冲突前相比扩大，布油上涨幅度小于TTF、JKM。2）资源+技术驱动，深层煤层气先行者量利齐增【首华燃气】弹性分析：自产气价每提升0.1元/方，26/27年业绩将增加0.54/0.67亿元，业绩弹性17%/12%。盈利预测：气量假设25年9.3亿方、26年12亿方、27年15亿方。价差假设25年0.25元/方，26年0.35/方，27年0.5元/方。我们预计2025-2027年公司归母净利润1.58/3.16/5.46亿元，同比122%/100%/73%，对应PE50/25/14倍（估值日期2026/3/6），维持“买入”评级。3）关注具备长协成本优势企业。具备海外长协的公司成本管控能力更优，地缘冲突带来区域间转售套利机会。挂钩美气长协：【新奥股份】2026/3/6美气长协转售欧洲价差达2.3元/方，较2026/2/27的价差0.8元/方，提升1.5元/方；20亿方美气长协，26年股权激励业绩目标55亿元，价差扩大税后（税率15%）业绩弹性46%。【佛燃能源】。挂钩油价长协：【新奥能源】按私有化方案发布时与A股固定比价关系折算空间30%，当前新奥能源股价对应并购完成26年PE7，横比港股同业龙头折价42%；26年分红比例不低于50%，对应股息率7.1%具安全边际。【九丰能源】2026/3/6马来西亚长协转售欧洲价差达0.9元/方，较2026/2/27的价差0.4元/方，提升0.5元/方；8亿方马来西亚长协，26年股权激励业绩目标17.8亿元，价差扩大税后（税率15%）业绩弹性19%。【深圳燃气】。投资建议：地缘冲突导致气价上涨，关注资源端投资机会；城燃公司终端价格继续理顺、单位盈利修复，成本端需关注2026年4月年度采购合同。1）城燃顺价持续推进。重点推荐：【新奥能源】（26股息率5.4%）2024年不可测利润充分消化，私有化方案定价彰显估值回归空间；【华润燃气】【昆仑能源】（26股息率4.4%）【中国燃气】（26股息率6.1%）【蓝天燃气】（26股息率6.0%）【佛燃能源】（26股息率3.5%）；建议关注：【深圳燃气】【港华智慧能源】。2）关注具备优质长协资源、灵活调度、成本优势长期凸显的企业。重点推荐：重视商业航天特燃特气价值长期提升【九丰能源】（26股息率3.1%）【新奥股份】（26股息率4.2%）【佛燃能源】；建议关注：【深圳燃气】。3）地缘冲突导致气价上涨，能源自主可控重要性突显。重点推荐具备气源生产能力的【首华燃气】；建议关注【新天然气】【蓝焰控股】。（估值日期2026/3/6）风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、经营风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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