京东的身体被彻底透支了？

科技四少03-09

科技四少©️有料商业编辑团队原创作者 |四少东哥爱吃蓝莓爱健身我们都是知道的，对于养生我相信东哥比我知道的多。但是2025年，东哥在深夜拉着外卖小哥喝酒撸串，这就让养生的东哥人设差点崩塌。虽然东哥带着外卖小哥们喝了几顿大酒，东哥身体有没有点虚我不知道，但是京东却有点脚步轻浮起来。2025年，京东的财报出来，有个细节挺有意思。全年营收1.3万亿，同比增长13%，这个数字搁在任何一家企业，都...

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少东哥爱吃蓝莓爱健身我们都是知道的，对于养生我相信东哥比我知道的多。但是2025年，东哥在深夜拉着外卖小哥喝酒撸串，这就让养生的东哥人设差点崩塌。虽然东哥带着外卖小哥们喝了几顿大酒，东哥身体有没有点虚我不知道，但是京东却有点脚步轻浮起来。2025年，京东的财报出来，有个细节挺有意思。全年营收1.3万亿，同比增长13%，这个数字搁在任何一家企业，都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260309142055a45a78ff&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0348805143.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260309142055a45a78ff&s=b","article_id":"2618163617","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260309142055a45a78ff&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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少东哥爱吃蓝莓爱健身我们都是知道的，对于养生我相信东哥比我知道的多。但是2025年，东哥在深夜拉着外卖小哥喝酒撸串，这就让养生的东哥人设差点崩塌。虽然东哥带着外卖小哥们喝了几顿大酒，东哥身体有没有点虚我不知道，但是京东却有点脚步轻浮起来。2025年，京东的财报出来，有个细节挺有意思。全年营收1.3万亿，同比增长13%，这个数字搁在任何一家企业，都是拿出来吹的。但翻到利润那一页——净利润196亿，比上一年414亿，腰斩。Q4单季，直接亏损27亿，由盈转亏。更有意思的是资本市场的反应。市值跌了近四成，市盈率7.8倍，同期阿里腾讯都在18-19倍。换句话说，市场看京东的眼神，跟看一家传统零售公司差不多，没当互联网公司定价。营收越来越大，身体却越来越虚。这事儿怎么发生的？京东的元气是怎么空的？先说外面那几个窟窿。第一位，抖音。很多人对抖音电商的印象还停留在“直播带货”上，觉得那是另一套玩法，跟京东不是一个赛道。这个判断，2025年已经完全过时了。抖音的货架电商，也就是那种不靠直播、用户主动搜索下单的模式，2025年GMV增速49%。这个数字意味着什么？意味着抖音在复制京东最熟悉的那套打法，而且跑得比京东当年还快。结果是，论全年GMV，抖音已经越过京东，坐上了行业第三的位置。京东从第三跌到第四。被抖音超过这件事，表面上是个排名问题，实质上是个心智问题。你在消费者脑子里的位置，就是你能拿到多少生意的天花板。第二位，腾讯。2025年9月底，京东在微信“发现-购物”的一级入口，没了。这个入口意味着多大？微信的流量，曾经占京东全域流量的43.9%，将近一半。这条路被关掉的同时，微信开始跟淘宝加速互通。腾讯把那个位置，让给了别人。做生意的人都知道，门面是命根子。你开了个店，原来门口是主干道，流量滚滚而来，有一天路被改了，人流绕道走了，你再怎么折腾店里，都是事倍功半。外面这两把刀，都是被动挨的，属于时代和竞争格局的变化，也怪不得谁。但第三位，自己在透支自己。2025年，京东做了一件事——进外卖。这不是一个轻巧的决定。全年新业务板块，也就是外卖加上其他，经营亏损466亿元。2024年同期亏了多少？不到30亿。一年时间，亏损规模扩大了15倍以上。营销开支从480亿飙到840亿，涨了75%。自由现金流从437亿跌到65亿，跌了85%。精气神，主要是这么耗干的。这种透支值吗？这个问题，没有标准答案。但可以从两面看。先说值的那面。外卖这个仗，京东打得其实不算难看。上线一年，获得2.4亿用户，市场份额做到15%，跻身行业第三。这个成绩放在任何一个新赛道，都算得上是教科书级别的冷启动速度。你要理解外卖这个生意的含金量。外卖不只是送饭，它是即时零售的底层基础设施。谁掌握了即时配送网络，谁就掌握了“一小时内送达”这件事的入口。京东物流是京东最值钱的资产之一，但这张网一直是服务电商的，没有延伸到即时零售里来。外卖，就是这张延伸的入场券。从这个角度看，466亿不是纯烧掉了，是买了一张可能改变格局的船票。再说不值的那面。问题是，这张船票，目的地不确定。高盛做过一个预测，外卖市场的最终格局，美团、阿里、京东大概是5比4比1。也就是说，哪怕京东把这场仗打赢了，最终也就是一成分额。用466亿换一成，这账怎么算都有点难看。更麻烦的是，对手不是省油的灯。美团在外卖这个地盘上深耕了十几年，本地商家关系、骑手网络、调度算法，都是时间堆出来的护城河，不是钱能直接砸穿的。淘宝闪购2025年也入了局，还带着更大的补贴——阿里的钱不比京东少。这时候再看拼多多，就很有意思了。同一个2025年，拼多多没有进外卖，没有烧钱，现金储备反而涨到了4238亿，首次超过阿里。两种活法，两个方向。一个在主战场守住阵地，越赚越多；一个主动出击开辟新战线，越打越亏。谁对谁错？现在下结论太早。但有一点是确定的——京东选的是一条更难的路。下一步是康复还是垮掉？管理层说，2026年外卖的总投入会低于2025年，最疯狂的透支阶段已经过去了。这句话说出来，市场应该松一口气，但我觉得这句话本身才是最值得琢磨的地方。“最疯狂的烧钱阶段已经过去了”——这个表述，有两种读法。一种读法是：仗打得差不多了，接下来进入精细化运营，用质量代替数量，消耗止住了，身体慢慢恢复。另一种读法是：实在扛不住了，不是因为赢了，是因为再烧下去伤不起。资本市场目前的定价，倾向于第二种读法。京东现在的处境，像极了一个硬撑了一整年的人。身上有伤，体力见底，但阵地还没丢完。前面是美团的主场，侧面是阿里的援军，背后是抖音还在继续往传统电商腹地渗透。这种时候，最考验的不是战术，是战略定力。京东赌的是什么？我理解是两件事。第一件，即时零售这个赛道，足够大，大到值得用亏损去换位置。外卖只是入口，背后是整个“小时达”经济的想象空间，生鲜、药品、3C配件，只要能做到一小时送达，京东的供应链优势就能被重新激活。第二件，物流网络一旦铺开，边际成本会持续下降。京东物流当年也是常年亏损，今天已经是利润来源之一。外卖这张网，京东在赌它会走同一条路。这两件事，逻辑上都说得通。但说得通，不等于一定会发生。我见过太多企业，战略方向是对的，但熬不过中间那段最难看的财报。资本市场没耐心，投资人没耐心，员工也没耐心。方向对，不代表终点能到达。京东现在最需要的，不是下一个新故事，而是把现在这个故事，讲到有结果的那一天。身体透支不可怕，可怕的是，还没等到恢复元气，就先撑不住倒下了。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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