德意志银行称AI担忧堪比“比索问题” 眼下的美联储降息预期可能不理性

环球市场播报03-12

德意志银行称，投资者对美联储的降息预期可能超出了与经济基本面相符的程度，因为他们担心的那种人工智能（AI）冲击可能压根就不会到来。　　Matthew Raskin等策略师周三在报告中写道，这种状况就类似于经典的“比索问题”，即投资者将未来发生一种概率极低的重大事件的风险计算在内。　　“比索问题”一词来源于上世纪70年代，当时市场担心墨西哥比索可能突然贬值，因此长期低估墨西哥资产的价值。然而，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2618131518?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-03-12 19:44","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2618131518","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"德意志银行称AI担忧堪比“比索问题” 眼下的美联储降息预期可能不理性","media":"环球市场播报","content":"<div>\n<p>德意志银行称，投资者对美联储的降息预期可能超出了与经济基本面相符的程度，因为他们担心的那种人工智能（AI）冲击可能压根就不会到来。\n　　Matthew Raskin等策略师周三在报告中写道，这种状况就类似于经典的“比索问题”，即投资者将未来发生一种概率极低的重大事件的风险计算在内。\n　　“比索问题”一词来源于上世纪70年代，当时市场担心墨西哥比索可能突然贬值，因此长期低估墨西哥资产的价值。然而，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-12/doc-inhqtusm4683171.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>德意志银行称AI担忧堪比“比索问题” 眼下的美联储降息预期可能不理性</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n德意志银行称AI担忧堪比“比索问题” 眼下的美联储降息预期可能不理性\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-12 19:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-12/doc-inhqtusm4683171.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>德意志银行称，投资者对美联储的降息预期可能超出了与经济基本面相符的程度，因为他们担心的那种人工智能（AI）冲击可能压根就不会到来。\n　　Matthew Raskin等策略师周三在报告中写道，这种状况就类似于经典的“比索问题”，即投资者将未来发生一种概率极低的重大事件的风险计算在内。\n　　“比索问题”一词来源于上世纪70年代，当时市场担心墨西哥比索可能突然贬值，因此长期低估墨西哥资产的价值。然而，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-12/doc-inhqtusm4683171.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_ES","symbol_name":"SP500指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-12/doc-inhqtusm4683171.shtml","article_id":"2618131518","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618131518","pubTimestamp":1773315840,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"德意志银行称，投资者对美联储的降息预期可能超出了与经济基本面相符的程度，因为他们担心的那种人工智能冲击可能压根就不会到来。　　德意志银行的策略师们认为，当下对AI可能破坏劳动力市场，导致企业和就业岗位减少的担忧，给债券交易员对美联储政策的预期也造成了类似的影响。“这意味着，就算经济数据好于预期，对接下来的一年或更长时间的降息预期也可能持续。”","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"EWW":"墨西哥投资指数ETF-iShares MSCI","DB":"德意志银行",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPYI":"NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","BK4566":"资本集团"},"translate_title":"Deutsche Bank says AI concerns are comparable to the \"peso problem\" The current Fed rate cut expectation may be irrational","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"IEI":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"DB":1.91,"ESmain":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"TNmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"EWW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"TLTW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ZTmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ZBmain":0.6},"content_text":"德意志银行称，投资者对美联储的降息预期可能超出了与经济基本面相符的程度，因为他们担心的那种人工智能（AI）冲击可能压根就不会到来。\n　　Matthew Raskin等策略师周三在报告中写道，这种状况就类似于经典的“比索问题”，即投资者将未来发生一种概率极低的重大事件的风险计算在内。\n　　“比索问题”一词来源于上世纪70年代，当时市场担心墨西哥比索可能突然贬值，因此长期低估墨西哥资产的价值。然而，贬值的事后面很多年都未发生，使得这种风险溢价在事后看来很不理性。但当时投资者不得不对潜在的黑天鹅事件有所提防。\n　　德意志银行的策略师们认为，当下对AI可能破坏劳动力市场，导致企业和就业岗位减少的担忧，给债券交易员对美联储政策的预期也造成了类似的影响。\n　　虽然中东冲突推高了能源价格，促使交易员削减了对今年降息力度的押注，但他们仍然将货币宽松预期时间推至2027年。\n　　Raskin说，出于对AI最终可能导致大面积失业的恐慌，这些预期或将持续，很大程度上不会受到即将公布的经济数据的影响。\n　　“在当前的环境下，无论市场对AI导致失业率大幅上升的预期是否正确，这里面都有某种程度的比索问题，而且我们目前完全不清楚，哪些短期数据或其他什么事情会让市场断定‘风险并没有目前大家感知的那么大’，”Raskin及其同事写道。“这意味着，就算经济数据好于预期，对接下来的一年或更长时间的降息预期也可能持续。”\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘明亮","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2618131518","isCrawlerRequest":true}