想抓港股反弹，可以配什么产品 | ETF风向标

华夏ETF03-06

01、逆风：回调的原因是什么港股科技自去年10月开始，持续跑输A股科技，调整原因在这五个月有变化，但总的离不开“业绩”和“估值”两大框架。（1）业绩端：港股科技的多个子板块（互联网/造车新势力/消费电子/创新药等），过去几个月处于“逆风期”。在AI产业叙事中，港股科技虽然有全栈布局优势，但硬件占比少、软件应用业务占比高，受到美股AI逻辑映射的负面影响，先是“资本开支扩张难兑现”的质疑，后来又有“...

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weathervane","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89888":0.6,"159101":1.91,"09888":0.9},"content_text":"01、逆风：回调的原因是什么港股科技自去年10月开始，持续跑输A股科技，调整原因在这五个月有变化，但总的离不开“业绩”和“估值”两大框架。（1）业绩端：港股科技的多个子板块（互联网/造车新势力/消费电子/创新药等），过去几个月处于“逆风期”。在AI产业叙事中，港股科技虽然有全栈布局优势，但硬件占比少、软件应用业务占比高，受到美股AI逻辑映射的负面影响，先是“资本开支扩张难兑现”的质疑，后来又有“AI替代软件”的质疑；造车新势力的业绩分歧也比较大；消费电子受上游存储芯片涨价影响，盈利也有压力；互联网传统业务（外卖、电商）盈利仍然承压。（2）估值端：港股作为离岸市场，本土的流动性相对不足，去年港股市场的增长资金主要来自南向资金，12月南向净流入也收窄至200亿港元量级；美联储降息预期的风吹草动，都会引发美元指数变动，继而影响港股外部流动性边际变化。不过悲观情绪也在市场调整中被price-in（充分计价），同时积极因素也在积累：（1）AI叙事逻辑在向下游AI应用扩散，阿里千问等AI应用DAU上升，通用千问大模型开源获海外认可，百度最新财报显示云业务营收占比超四成；（2）1-2月南向流入回暖到700~900亿港元/月，内资回流后，对港股科技的定价权也在不断上升。02、前景：反弹的动力是什么？回顾2024年A股924行情发动前的一个月，港股科技就率先触底反弹。这是由于港股科技外资占比高，调整时间更长、调整幅度更深，在估值性价比、筹码出清程度上，均优于A股科技，因此一旦内外部风险情绪释放结束，反弹时机往往也会比A股要早、弹性也更大。回到本轮调整，恒生科技、国证港股通科技指数自去年10月至今，高点回撤达-27%，已经超过其历史平均区间调整幅度（-20%），为后市修复留足空间。（来源：iFind，统计截至2026年3月4日收盘，指数历史走势不预示未来，亦不等同于相关产品业绩）当然，更重要的还是基本面上的潜在变化，例如——（1）国产AI新模型发布。如果超预期，可能阶段性复现去年上半年行情，逻辑在于AI软件应用空间继续打开（国内大市场）+对中国科技能力的再审视（重估）；（2）基本面拐点验证。3月财报披露期将为重要观察窗口，重点关注AI商业化进展和传统互联网业绩拐点的验证。例如阿里Capex（资本开支）预期不做下调，云业务继续高增，权重股外卖补贴减少，在“回归基本面”预期下，叙事性扰动有望告一段落，估值有望重回“科技”属性。华夏基金数量投资部建议：以配置的心态和思维看待港股，重拾向上动能还是需要盈利端验证和市场情绪扭转。具体来说，短期悲观情绪边际改善下，港股科技有望迎来短期的超跌反弹；中期来看，港股若想重拾向上动能，仍需回归盈利与财报验证；对于长期投资者，可以降低短期波动的焦虑，逢低定投，互联网、新能源车的龙头企业仍是中国甚至全球最具竞争力的科技企业，看好港股科技的底层逻辑并未改变。03、应对：以“高锐度”备战“高弹性”港股通科技ETF（159101.SZ）被动跟踪国证港股通科技指数，持股透明、无风格漂移的风险，该ETF在深圳证券交易所上市，方便内地投资者便捷布局，免去开户、选股、换汇等麻烦。没有证券账户的场外投资者也可以关注华夏港股通科技ETF联接C（025806.OF）。与恒生科技指数的区别在于，港股通科技指数更全面覆盖港股特色资产（互联网平台企业+AI应用+先进制造+造车新势力+创新药），相对恒生科技补齐了创新药这个短板，板块盈利预期连续上修，多家药企有望迎来减亏或扭亏；展望全年，AACR(4月)、ASCO(5月)、ESMO(10月)等学术会议渐次到来，国产创新药有望进一步带来临床数据的兑现。此外，国证港股通科技指数在选择样本股方面更看重“成长性”。聚焦近两年营业收入复合增长率>10%或近一年研发费用占营业收入比例>5%，因此科技属性更为突出；同时个股权重更集中，单一成分股上限调高至15%，锐度也更高。回顾历史，国证港股通科技指数在反弹区间表现一般优于同类指数。再以2024年924行情为例，国证港股通科技指数自反弹至今，最高涨幅达113%，大幅领先恒生科技同期表现（97%），体现了指数高锐度的优势。注：本文为作者观点，仅供参考。下滑查看产品信息与：","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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