大摩详解：伊朗战火持续升级黄金为何不涨反跌？

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俗话说，“大炮一响，黄金万两”。黄金一直被认为是地缘政治冲突发生时的“最强避险品种”。但最近，随着中东地缘政治紧张局势不断升级，这一避险品种却意外走弱了。北京时间周二深夜，国际贵金属市场一度上演“惊魂一跳”：现货黄金盘中一度跌超6%，跌破5000美元/盎司整数关口；现货白银一度跌超10%。尽管在周三和周四，贵金属价格有所回暖，但仍未回到本周一的高位。摩根士丹利策略师艾米·高厄（Amy Gower）...

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Why does gold not rise but fall?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"MGCmain":1.5,"GLL":1.5,"NUGT":0.6,"QOmain":1.5,"SGCmain":0.6,"1OZmain":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"PALL":1.5,"GDX":1.5,"SGOL":1.5,"GDXJ":1.5,"GCmain":1.5,"SGUmain":0.6,"XME":1.5,"GLDM":1.5,"DGP":1.5,"GLD":0.6,"DUST":0.6},"content_text":"俗话说，“大炮一响，黄金万两”。黄金一直被认为是地缘政治冲突发生时的“最强避险品种”。但最近，随着中东地缘政治紧张局势不断升级，这一避险品种却意外走弱了。北京时间周二深夜，国际贵金属市场一度上演“惊魂一跳”：现货黄金盘中一度跌超6%，跌破5000美元/盎司整数关口；现货白银一度跌超10%。尽管在周三和周四，贵金属价格有所回暖，但仍未回到本周一的高位。摩根士丹利策略师艾米·高厄（Amy Gower）领导的团队发布了报告，对这一“奇异”的情况进行了深入解释。黄金目前正受到多股力量拉扯摩根士丹利策略师认为，黄金近期的“奇异走势”走势主要是由货币动态和流动性需求所驱动。尽管地缘政治不确定性通常会支撑黄金需求，但近期美元走强已成为贵金属面临的关键阻力，大摩指出，目前有几股力量同时影响着黄金价格，包括对美联储降息的预期、货币走势、地缘政治风险以及市场流动性状况。而近期黄金的抛售，可能反映出投资者在市场压力时期筹集现金，而非投资情绪的根本转变。“我们认为，如果当前形势持续下去，黄金的不佳表现可能是暂时的，近期的黄金抛售很可能仅仅是出于对流动性的需求。”策略师们表示。美元走强成为金价阻力该团队强调了美元在影响黄金价格走势方面的作用。通常来说，美元走强往往会压低黄金价格，因为这会增加非美买家的购买成本，而美元走弱通常会支撑大宗商品市场。分析师在报告中写到，尽管“不确定性通常会支撑避险资产，这意味着黄金价格有望上涨。”但同时，近期的金价走势“与美元走强的情况更为复杂”。摩根士丹利的外汇策略师预计，美元短期内将出现波动，这种波动的风险在正负两个方向都有，这取决于全球宏观经济和能源市场的动态。黄金仍有望继续上涨大摩策略师们认为，如果地缘政治紧张局势持续加剧，他们预计“黄金将在今年下半年迎头赶上——达到每盎司5700美元”。与此同时，黄金需求可能会因中东地区与石油相关的收入流而得到支撑。因为随着能源价格上涨，可能会增强中东地区的政府财政状况，并可能促使当地央行增加黄金购买量。策略师举例，2022年油价高涨时，中东地区的多家央行共购入约90吨黄金，这在当年全球净购入量400吨中举足轻重。本文转载自：财联社；智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2617757238","isCrawlerRequest":true}

大摩详解：伊朗战火持续升级 黄金为何不涨反跌？

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大摩详解：伊朗战火持续升级黄金为何不涨反跌？