别只盯着伊朗美国私募信贷危机正一步步重现“次贷危机”

智通财经网03-08

当市场目光聚焦于地缘政治风险时，一场悄然蔓延的私募信贷危机正在美国金融体系内部加速发酵。赎回潮、资产抛售、基金封门——这套剧本，投资者在2008年见过。本周，全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)宣布限制旗下规模260亿美元的HPS企业贷款基金(HLEND)的投资者赎回，成为迄今最具冲击力的信号。此前，黑石(Blackstone)私募信贷基金遭遇创纪录的7.9%赎回申请，Blue ...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1411303.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当市场目光聚焦于地缘政治风险时，一场悄然蔓延的私募信贷危机正在美国金融体系内部加速发酵。赎回潮、资产抛售、基金封门——这套剧本，投资者在2008年见过。本周，全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)宣布限制旗下规模260亿美元的HPS企业贷款基金(HLEND)的投资者赎回，成为迄今最具冲击力的信号。此前，黑石(Blackstone)私募信贷基金遭遇创纪录的7.9%赎回申请，Blue  ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1411303.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B3PB1722.GBP","symbol_name":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) 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The US private credit crisis is reappearing step by step. The \"subprime mortgage crisis\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BDC":1,"BLK":0.9},"content_text":"当市场目光聚焦于地缘政治风险时，一场悄然蔓延的私募信贷危机正在美国金融体系内部加速发酵。赎回潮、资产抛售、基金封门——这套剧本，投资者在2008年见过。本周，全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)宣布限制旗下规模260亿美元的HPS企业贷款基金(HLEND)的投资者赎回，成为迄今最具冲击力的信号。此前，黑石(Blackstone)私募信贷基金遭遇创纪录的7.9%赎回申请，Blue  Owl股价跌破SPAC上市发行价。三家私募信贷巨头接连告急，恶性循环的齿轮已经咬合。与此同时，太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)在最新客户报告中警告：直接贷款行业将迎来\"全面违约周期\"，承压测试不可避免。这一判断来自私募信贷的长期批评者，其分量不容忽视。私募信贷危机的蔓延已直接反映在相关上市公司的股价走势上。Blue  Owl股价跌破SPAC发行价，黑石、贝莱德等机构的私募信贷相关业务估值承压，整个行业正面临投资者信心的系统性重估。封门：贝莱德“限制赎回”旗下私募信贷基金据华尔街见闻文章称，贝莱德周五发布声明称，旗下HPS Corporate Lending  Fund(简称HLEND)的股东此次共申请赎回9.3%的份额，但基金管理层决定将回购上限设定在5%，约合12亿美元。贝莱德在声明中将此举定性为基金流动性管理的\"基础性\"安排，称若不加限制，将出现投资者资本与私募信贷贷款久期之间的\"结构性错配\"。这番措辞听起来平静，但市场读懂了其中的含义：若全额兑付赎回，贝莱德将不得不启动大规模资产抛售。此前，贝莱德旗下另一私募信贷部门已出现令人警觉的信号——BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.在第四季度报告中，将对Infinite  Commerce  Holdings的一笔2500万美元贷款估值从100美分直接归零，而仅仅三个月前，该笔贷款还被标记为面值。从100到0，三个月，毫无预警。火烧连营：抛售引发的恶性循环贝莱德的封门并非孤立事件，而是一条已经点燃的导火索的终点——或者说，新的起点。三周前，Blue Owl Capital率先行动。面对大量赎回申请(主要源于其对软件贷款的高度集中敞口，而AI冲击正令这类资产迅速贬值)，Blue  Owl宣布出售14亿美元私募信贷贷款，以资产变现代替恢复季度赎回机制，实际上同样冻结了投资者资金。该公司强调，拟出售资产均为内部风险评级最高级别(五级制中的1级或2级)。然而，这一\"优质资产先走\"的策略，恰恰是危机蔓延的加速器。若二级市场的买盘仅存在于高质量资产，其他业务发展公司(BDC)的投资组合出售将面临更稀薄的流动性。据悉，NMFC已表示正在推进出售约5亿美元投资组合(占其2025年三季度末总投资的17%)。黑石的情况同样严峻。其私募信贷基金BCRED管理规模达820亿美元，本季度赎回申请达到创纪录的7.9%，超过法定上限7%。为避免触发封门机制，黑石员工被要求自掏腰包认购1.5亿美元，以填补缺口。三家机构，三种应对，但逻辑相同：封门或变相封门，以避免被迫抛售引发更大的估值崩塌。分析指出，问题在于，贝莱德的封门决定本身，已经向市场发出了最强烈的恐慌信号，可能触发更多投资者争相赎回。Blue Owl：股价跌破发行价，风险敞口持续曝光作为此轮危机的\"震中\"，Blue Owl Capital的处境持续恶化。其股价本周跌破10美元的SPAC上市发行价，创三年新低。据彭博援引知情人士报道，Blue Owl对伦敦房产贷款机构Century Capital Partners  Ltd.持有3600万英镑(约4800万美元)敞口——这是其通过2024年收购Atalaya Capital Management间接形成的风险暴露。Century已于上月申请破产管理，总负债约9500万英镑，NatWest Group和Hampshire Trust Bank是其优先级债权人。Blue Owl持有的是Century贷款组合中风险最高的劣后级份额。Century的管理人RSM  UK预计可全额收回优先贷款，但劣后级的命运则另当别论。这一事件揭示了私募信贷扩张期的另一面：资产支持融资(asset-backed  financing)曾被行业领袖们视为增长新前沿，Pimco、凯雷(Carlyle  Group)、Marathon和黑石的高管均曾公开看好这一赛道。如今，这一赛道的风险正以意想不到的方式浮出水面。PIMCO警告：全面违约周期已在路上就在私募信贷市场风声鹤唳之际，PIMCO分析师Lotfi Karoui和Gabriel  Cazaubieilh在最新客户报告中发出了迄今最为直接的警告。两位分析师在报告中写道：\"与杠杆融资市场的每一个成熟细分领域一样，直接贷款最终将面临一个全面的违约周期——这一周期将同时检验其应对行业特定冲击和宏观经济冲击的韧性。\"PIMCO是私募信贷的早期批评者之一。在直接贷款策略募资规模飙升之际，这家管理约2.3万亿美元资产的机构选择反向布局，主动寻找私募信贷支持企业中的潜在问题。PIMCO的分析指出了几个核心风险点：其一，2008年金融危机后创纪录的募资规模导致承销标准持续松弛;其二，直接贷款组合对软件行业的高度集中敞口，将在AI冲击下拖累相对表现;其三，直接贷款基金长期未能为投资者的流动性锁定提供足够的风险溢价补偿。对于BDC投资者面临的流动性困境，PIMCO的措辞同样直白：\"半流动性并不等于完全流动性。投资者必须评估自身的流动性需求，以及对资金受限的容忍程度。\"不过，PIMCO也区分了私募信贷内部的不同赛道，认为资产支持融资等细分领域仍具投资价值，可提供\"类投资级\"风险水平。去年，PIMCO已为其资产支持融资策略募集逾70亿美元。次贷危机重现?这一轮危机的结构性逻辑并不复杂：半流动性产品承诺季度赎回，但底层资产是久期较长的私募贷款;当赎回申请超过阈值，管理人要么封门、要么抛售资产;抛售压低资产价格，触发更多估值下调，进而引发更多赎回——循环由此形成。这套逻辑，在2008年的次级抵押贷款市场上演过一次。当时，最初的裂缝同样出现在一个被认为\"足够分散、足够专业\"的市场角落。如今，私募信贷市场规模已达1.8万亿美元，其中的风险集中度、估值不透明性与流动性错配，正在以相似的方式接受检验。本文转自华尔街见闻，智通财经编辑：李佛。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2617665246","isCrawlerRequest":true}

别只盯着伊朗 美国私募信贷危机正一步步重现“次贷危机”

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别只盯着伊朗美国私募信贷危机正一步步重现“次贷危机”