搜索已死？百度千亿豪赌，能换来一张AI船票吗

有见财经03-06

FINSIGHT"李彦宏这场豪赌，赌上了百度的全部身家。就在上周，百度发布了2025年财报。数据一出，市场直接懵了。全年营收1291亿，不增反降，倒退了3%。更吓人的是净利润，暴跌76%，只剩下56个小目标。这可能是百度上市以来，最难看的成绩单。但最狠的，还是那笔162亿元的长期资产减值。简单说，就是百度自己动手，把一堆“过时”的服务器、芯片，直接当废铁在账上核销了。对自己下手这么狠，李彦宏到底想...

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Baidu's 100 billion gamble, can it be exchanged for an AI ticket","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89888":0.6,"BIDU":1.95,"09888":1.95},"content_text":"FINSIGHT\"李彦宏这场豪赌，赌上了百度的全部身家。就在上周，百度发布了2025年财报。数据一出，市场直接懵了。全年营收1291亿，不增反降，倒退了3%。更吓人的是净利润，暴跌76%，只剩下56个小目标。这可能是百度上市以来，最难看的成绩单。但最狠的，还是那笔162亿元的长期资产减值。简单说，就是百度自己动手，把一堆“过时”的服务器、芯片，直接当废铁在账上核销了。对自己下手这么狠，李彦宏到底想干嘛？现金奶牛，突然不产奶了百度的老本行，搜索广告，这次真的顶不住了。财报里藏着一个危险的信号：百度上市以来，第一次没单独公布第四季度的广告收入。为啥不公布？懂的都懂，数据肯定不好看。往前翻翻，趋势更吓人。在线营销收入，一季度跌6%，二季度跌得更凶，到了三季度，同比暴跌18%。这不是周期波动，这是结构性塌方。现在谁还只用百度搜东西？刷抖音、逛小红书、甚至直接问AI，年轻人获取信息的方式早就变了。一份市场报告显示，百度的媒介地位指数已经跌出前五，排在抖音、微信、淘宝、快手甚至小红书后面。赖以生存的土壤正在流失，百度这棵大树，摇摇欲坠。162亿“财务洗澡”，李彦宏的决绝利润表上鲜血淋漓，根源就是那162亿的减值。业内管这叫 “财务洗澡” 。把旧伤疤一次性揭开，脓挤干净，虽然当下痛彻心扉，但是为了以后能轻装上阵。这162亿，洗掉的是百度“非AI原生”的旧时代。李彦宏的意思很明确：那些不能为AI服务的算力，全是废铜烂铁，留着就是累赘。砍掉，全部砍掉。不止砍资产，人也砍。财报显示，去年四季度，百度核心业务减员了3100多人，光遣散费就花了7个亿。以广告为核心的移动生态事业群，成了重灾区。断臂求生，壮士断腕。所有动作都指向同一个目标：All in AI，没有退路。AI业务狂奔，但还养不起家传统业务在失血，那被寄予厚望的AI呢？必须承认，AI是百度财报里唯一的亮色。2025年，AI新业务营收400亿，猛增48%。第四季度，AI收入占核心收入比重已经高达43%，几乎撑起半边天。李彦宏在去年大会上秀的“秒哒”、数字人，也确实炫酷。但问题就出在这里：增长很快，盘子还是太小。400亿的AI营收，填不上传统广告业务萎缩留下的巨大窟窿。更关键的是，AI这头“吞金兽”太能吃了。百度押注AI三年来，累计投入超过1000亿。钱烧得猛，竞争更残酷。看看现在的AI应用战场，简直是修罗场。字节的豆包、阿里的千问、腾讯的元宝，还有异军突起的DeepSeek、Kimi，个个都不是省油的灯。今年春节红包大战，豆包、千问、元宝杀疯了，轮流霸榜App Store。百度也撒了5亿红包，但连前20名都没挤进去，存在感弱得可怜。一位接近百度的业内人士吐槽：“百度总是起个大早，赶个晚集。O2O是这样，现在AI，味儿又有点对了。技术有，但打市场，总是慢半拍。”李彦宏急了，亲自下场督战市场不等人，老李真的坐不住了。去年11月，百度内部动了一次大手术。负责文心大模型的技术中台（TPG）被拆分，新成立两个部门，都直接向李彦宏汇报。这意味着，CTO王海峰交出了大模型的核心指挥权。李彦宏从幕后走到台前，亲自带队冲锋。他在财报电话会上不断给市场打气，金句频出： “应用比模型更重要。” “没有一个模型能处处领先。” “2025年是AI成为百度新核心的关键一年。”话很硬，但资本市场似乎没那么买账。财报发布当晚，百度美股一度大跌超7%。投资者在担心什么？他们担心，百度光会秀技术肌肉，却赚不到真金白银。AI业务毛利率多少？净利率多少？这些关键盈利指标，百度一概没提。AI的故事再动听，不能赚钱，就是空中楼阁。没有退路，就是最好的出路？刮骨疗毒之后，百度是不是就安全了？未必。一个细节值得玩味：在竞争对手疯狂加码研发的时候，百度2025年的研发费用，反而减少了8%。李彦宏解释过，过去打不赢，是因为“不聚焦”。现在，他要把钱花在刀刃上。这更像是一种战略收缩，在核心业务造血不足时，先保住现金流。财报里也有一丝曙光：去年四季度，百度经营现金流和自由现金流都转正了。AI投入，似乎到了从“输血”到“造血”的临界点。百度把互联网时代的船票，押在了AI身上。现在，旧船正在沉没，新船还没完全造好。李彦宏这场豪赌，赌上了百度的全部身家。赢了，绝地翻盘。输了，时代抛弃你的时候，连一声再见都不会说。这场交接班的阵痛，还得持续多久？没人知道答案。我们只知道，那个靠搜索躺着赚钱的百度，已经永远回不来了。欢迎扫码加群参与讨论往期精选90后已经不敢辞职了！降薪实锤，17家银行大幅降薪！再见券商：集体降薪！再无百万年薪青年失业率，最高可能有 46.5%中金、中信最新成绩单出炉：集体滑坡....“有见·Finsight”商业是解码人性的棱镜，在数据浪潮中清醒，在博弈丛林里慈悲。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2617506101","isCrawlerRequest":true}