东方证券：期权视角下焦煤企业的价值明显增强推荐平煤股份(601666.SH)等

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智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，由于焦煤价格的波动率大于动力煤价格，焦煤股的估值更适合以期权的视角看待，从案例的计算来看，期权视角下焦煤企业的价值明显大于传统视角下焦煤企业的估值，推荐淮北矿业(600985.SH，增持)、平煤股份(601666.SH，增持)、山西焦煤(000983.SH，增持)、潞安环能(601699.SH，增持)。东方证券主要观点如下：传统方法对煤炭企业的估值可能存在...

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Pingmei shares (601666.SH) are recommended.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600958":1.5,"601666":1.5,"03958":1.5,"000983.SH":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，由于焦煤价格的波动率大于动力煤价格，焦煤股的估值更适合以期权的视角看待，从案例的计算来看，期权视角下焦煤企业的价值明显大于传统视角下焦煤企业的估值，推荐淮北矿业(600985.SH，增持)、平煤股份(601666.SH，增持)、山西焦煤(000983.SH，增持)、潞安环能(601699.SH，增持)。东方证券主要观点如下：传统方法对煤炭企业的估值可能存在一定的局限性传统上对煤炭公司估值主要采用两种方法：(1)对盈利的公司采用现金流折现定价(DCF);(2)对不盈利的公司采用重置成本定价。在“反内卷”的背景下，煤炭企业难以像过去那样出现深度的亏损，但当煤价较高时，由于煤炭企业的扩产需要一定的时间周期，政策对煤价上涨的调控相对困难，这使得当前煤炭企业盈利呈现“下有底、上有弹性”的特点，这是上述两种传统的方法难以体现的。“反内卷”背景下，煤炭股非常适合采用期权的视角来看待在“反内卷”的背景下，煤炭企业年度的吨煤预期盈利可视为煤价的亚式看涨期权，采用此种方法进行估值可以反应当前煤炭企业盈利“下有底、上有弹性”的特点，同时普适性更强，对微利、亏损的企业也能给出相对合理的估值(对盈利的企业来说，其价值类似于实值期权，而对亏损的企业来说，其价值类似于虚值期权)。以典型案例测算，期权视角下的价值可能高于传统方法的估值本文考虑一个理想的焦煤企业A，假设其年产焦煤1000万吨，有息负债率0%，当前焦煤销售价格为1000元/吨，吨煤净利润100元，年度股权自由现金流(FCFE)为10亿元，长期增长率g为0%，无风险利率Rf为2.0%、无杠杆影响的β系数1.0、市场平均预期收益率Rm为10.0%，在传统的DCF折现方法下，该企业市值为100亿元，对应PE为10倍;而在期权视角下，基于今年以来煤价的波动率，如果底部吨煤净利润为-10元/吨，期权视角下的价值为147亿元，PE接近15倍。风险提示(1)煤价波动低于预期的风险;(2)“反内卷”相关政策力度不及预期的风险;(3)煤炭企业经营管理成本控制不及预期的风险;(4)假设条件变化影响测算结果的风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2617505543","isCrawlerRequest":true}

东方证券：期权视角下焦煤企业的价值明显增强 推荐平煤股份(601666.SH)等

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东方证券：期权视角下焦煤企业的价值明显增强推荐平煤股份(601666.SH)等