中信证券：继续看好存储需求超预期且供不应求将持续至2027年上半年

智通财经03-07

智通财经APP获悉，近日中信证券发表存储行业研报，提到自2月以来，随铠侠业绩及指引超预期、NAND一季度合约价上调、以及国内模组厂商佰维存储发布1-2月业绩公告超预期，进一步验证了存储行业景气度维持高位。该行继续看好存储需求超预期，预计行业供不应求将持续至27H1，核心推荐短期业绩爆发性强的存储模组公司、存储原厂及贴近原厂的设计公司。一、2026年2月价格回顾(Bloomberg，CFM闪存市场，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2617304659?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-03-07 09:01","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2617304659","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"中信证券：继续看好存储需求超预期  且供不应求将持续至2027年上半年","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，近日中信证券发表存储行业研报，提到自2月以来，随铠侠业绩及指引超预期、NAND一季度合约价上调、以及国内模组厂商佰维存储发布1-2月业绩公告超预期，进一步验证了存储行业景气度维持高位。该行继续看好存储需求超预期，预计行业供不应求将持续至27H1，核心推荐短期业绩爆发性强的存储模组公司、存储原厂及贴近原厂的设计公司。一、2026年2月价格回顾(Bloomberg，CFM闪存市场，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1411278.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中信证券：继续看好存储需求超预期  且供不应求将持续至2027年上半年</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信证券：继续看好存储需求超预期  且供不应求将持续至2027年上半年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-07 09:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1411278.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，近日中信证券发表存储行业研报，提到自2月以来，随铠侠业绩及指引超预期、NAND一季度合约价上调、以及国内模组厂商佰维存储发布1-2月业绩公告超预期，进一步验证了存储行业景气度维持高位。该行继续看好存储需求超预期，预计行业供不应求将持续至27H1，核心推荐短期业绩爆发性强的存储模组公司、存储原厂及贴近原厂的设计公司。一、2026年2月价格回顾(Bloomberg，CFM闪存市场，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1411278.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"06030","symbol_name":"中信证券","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1411278.html","article_id":"2617304659","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617304659","pubTimestamp":1772845274,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，近日中信证券发表存储行业研报，提到自2月以来，随铠侠业绩及指引超预期、NAND一季度合约价上调、以及国内模组厂商佰维存储发布1-2月业绩公告超预期，进一步验证了存储行业景气度维持高位。该行继续看好存储需求超预期，预计行业供不应求将持续至27H1，核心推荐短期业绩爆发性强的存储模组公司、存储原厂及贴近原厂的设计公司。2)NAND Flash：2月继续保持环比快速上涨，涨幅相对收敛。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","688525":"佰维存储","06030":"中信证券","LU0405327148.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1255011170.USD":"JPM CHINA A-SHARE OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","BK1516":"腾讯概念","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","BK0183":"MSCI概念","LU1997245094.SGD":"安联神州A股基金AT Acc SGD","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK0188":"融资融券","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2495084118.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"ATH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1997244956.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC A","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU0405327494.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK0214":"IT设备","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","BK0012":"证金概念","LU1655091616.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A-Share Opportunities A (acc) SGD","LU2289578879.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A OPPORTUNITIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK0196":"行业龙头","LU1328615791.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ALL CHINA EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK1564":"中资券商股","LU1997245177.USD":"安联神洲A股基金","BK0028":"国家队","LU1064130708.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK0276":"资本市场"},"translate_title":"CITIC Securities: Continue to be optimistic that storage demand will exceed expectations and supply will exceed demand until the first half of 2027","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1.5,"688525":0.9,"06030":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，近日中信证券发表存储行业研报，提到自2月以来，随铠侠业绩及指引超预期、NAND一季度合约价上调、以及国内模组厂商佰维存储发布1-2月业绩公告超预期，进一步验证了存储行业景气度维持高位。该行继续看好存储需求超预期，预计行业供不应求将持续至27H1，核心推荐短期业绩爆发性强的存储模组公司、存储原厂及贴近原厂的设计公司。一、2026年2月价格回顾(Bloomberg，CFM闪存市场，TrendForce)1)DRAM：在经历1月环比大涨后，2月DRAM现货和合约价格涨幅放缓。根据Bloomberg，2月主流颗粒现货价环比-3%~+12%;DDR5-8Gb /DDR4-8Gb合约价环比+4%/+8%。2)NAND Flash：2月继续保持环比快速上涨，涨幅相对收敛。根据Bloomberg，2月主流颗粒现货价环比+10%~+26%，合约价环比+37% ~+67%。3)模组：2月DDR4/5内存条现货价格环比基本走平，SSD环比0~+13%，移动存储环比+10%~+25%;2月DDR5内存条合约价格环比+4%~+18%，DDR4价格走平;SSD环比+6%~+18%。(注：由于当前现货市场价格波动较大，合约议价周期缩短，因此不同资料来源的存储价格存在差异)二、价格展望(TrendForce Mar. 2026)1)DRAM：预计Q1传统DRAM合约价上涨90%~95%(未调整);2月底，据韩媒sedaily，三星电子和SK海力士已向客户发出通知，25Q2将继续大幅提高DRAM价格;据台媒“PCDIY!”报道，SK海力士于春节后向客户发出涨价通知，DDR5颗粒26Q2将涨价40%。2)NAND Flash：由于AI服务器需求保持强劲，供需严重失衡，原厂涨价意愿强烈，上调Q1整体合约价涨幅至85%~90%(此前预期55% ~60%)。3)利基存储：NOR Flash方面，台系厂商陆续减少中小容量NOR Flash产能，这将导致NOR产能收敛、供需改善，我们预计NOR Flash 26H1将保持上涨，Q1涨幅整体超过20%，中小容量NOR涨幅更大。SLC NAND Flash方面，海外原厂如美光、铠侠、三星陆续减少供应，我们预计在供给收缩下26H1价格上涨幅度有望接近主流TLC/QLC产品。三、海外原厂对需求端判断SK海力士：公司预计2026年DRAM bit需求同比增速20%以上，NAND bit需求同比增速15%~20%(high-teens);DRAM及NAND库存仅剩约4周，2026年所有客户的需求都无法得到完全满足;闪迪：公司预计2026年数据中心bit需求增长将超过60%;铠侠：公司预计NAND市场中长期bit需求将以约20% CAGR增长;HyperScaler LTA已经谈至2027-28年;公司指引FY4Q25(CY1Q26)营收环比成长55%~72%，超市场预期。四、国内存储厂商业绩预期佰维存储：公司预计1-2月营收40-45亿元，同比+340%-395%;预计1-2月归母净利润15-18亿元，同比+922%-1086%，归母扣非净利润13.5-16.0亿元，剔除股份支付后归母净利润15.3-18.3亿元，超市场预期。风险因素：海外CSP厂商AI CAPEX不及预期;消费电子下游需求走弱;存储价格提升不及预期;行业竞争加剧;技术革新风险;国际贸易摩擦风险等。投资策略：继续看好存储需求超预期，预计行业供不应求将持续至27H1，核心推荐：1)存储模组公司：短期业绩爆发能力强;2)存储设计公司：持续推荐存储原厂及贴近原厂的设计公司。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2617304659","isCrawlerRequest":true}

中信证券：继续看好存储需求超预期 且供不应求将持续至2027年上半年

精彩评论

中信证券：继续看好存储需求超预期且供不应求将持续至2027年上半年