李宁奥运周期焕新品牌势能，中长期成长景气

天风证券03-04

奥运叙事下新轮产品周期启动李宁重获COC权益，是在估值中枢较低、基本盘趋稳、行业进入专业运动竞争新阶段进行的一次关键战略卡位。对标历史周期，COC合作与龙头运动品牌成长高度同步，公司上一轮奥运周期末3年CAGR达36.7%，安踏在两轮奥运周期内实现双位数增长，并催化子品牌安踏冠军，证明奥运营销可沉淀品牌心智以及渠道效率双重资产。公司产品近年来已由国潮周期切至以跑步/健身等专业品类为主。自2022年...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2617231562?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-03-04 08:14","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2617231562","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"李宁奥运周期焕新品牌势能，中长期成长景气","media":"天风证券","content":"<div>\n<p>奥运叙事下新轮产品周期启动李宁重获COC权益，是在估值中枢较低、基本盘趋稳、行业进入专业运动竞争新阶段进行的一次关键战略卡位。对标历史周期，COC合作与龙头运动品牌成长高度同步，公司上一轮奥运周期末3年CAGR达36.7%，安踏在两轮奥运周期内实现双位数增长，并催化子品牌安踏冠军，证明奥运营销可沉淀品牌心智以及渠道效率双重资产。公司产品近年来已由国潮周期切至以跑步/健身等专业品类为主。自2022年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304083101a69f773b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李宁奥运周期焕新品牌势能，中长期成长景气</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李宁奥运周期焕新品牌势能，中长期成长景气\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-04 08:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304083101a69f773b&s=b><strong>天风证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>奥运叙事下新轮产品周期启动李宁重获COC权益，是在估值中枢较低、基本盘趋稳、行业进入专业运动竞争新阶段进行的一次关键战略卡位。对标历史周期，COC合作与龙头运动品牌成长高度同步，公司上一轮奥运周期末3年CAGR达36.7%，安踏在两轮奥运周期内实现双位数增长，并催化子品牌安踏冠军，证明奥运营销可沉淀品牌心智以及渠道效率双重资产。公司产品近年来已由国潮周期切至以跑步/健身等专业品类为主。自2022年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304083101a69f773b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LNNGY","symbol_name":"李宁ADR","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304083101a69f773b&s=b","article_id":"2617231562","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304083101a69f773b&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617231562","pubTimestamp":1772583260,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"奥运叙事下新轮产品周期启动李宁重获COC权益，是在估值中枢较低、基本盘趋稳、行业进入专业运动竞争新阶段进行的一次关键战略卡位。调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级李宁家族年内通过非凡领越累计增持超15亿港元，控股权持续稳固，显示对品牌长期发展及估值修复的强信心。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"82331":"李宁-R","LNNGY":"李宁ADR","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","BK1502":"双十一","LU1048588211.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Dragon A2 SGD-H","BK1227":"服装、服饰与奢侈品","LU0072462343.USD":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","BK1589":"北水核心资产","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2045819591.USD":"Natixis WCM Global Emerging Markets Equity R/A USD","LU1102505762.USD":"富达新兴市场焦点 A","LU1102505929.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU2125910500.SGD":"Natixis WCM Global Emerging Markets Equity H-R/A SGD","LU0541501648.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","BK1512":"体育用品","02331":"李宁","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A"},"translate_title":"Li-Ning's Olympic Cycle Renewed Brand Potential Energy, Medium and Long-term Growth Prosperity","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82331":0.6,"LNNGY":0.6,"02331":1.5},"content_text":"奥运叙事下新轮产品周期启动李宁重获COC权益，是在估值中枢较低、基本盘趋稳、行业进入专业运动竞争新阶段进行的一次关键战略卡位。对标历史周期，COC合作与龙头运动品牌成长高度同步，公司上一轮奥运周期末3年CAGR达36.7%，安踏在两轮奥运周期内实现双位数增长，并催化子品牌安踏冠军，证明奥运营销可沉淀品牌心智以及渠道效率双重资产。公司产品近年来已由国潮周期切至以跑步/健身等专业品类为主。自2022年以后，“国潮”红利减弱，公司进入低速增长和去库存调整周期，2025H1跑步品类流水增速接近20%，占比升至34%，成为第一大品类。跑鞋持续以科技创新和大单品策略突破，篮球品类依靠明星球员签约、赛事绑定与渠道精细管理，维持品牌价值；运动休闲叠加米兰时装周+荣耀金标+龙店一体化叙事，在本轮奥运周期下有望重塑品牌价值，迎结构性增长机遇。渠道结构优化，赋能生意成长公司渠道已从规模扩张进入结构优化的新常态。24年以来公司通过主动压缩直营、加速门店店型升级、依托经销与电商平衡风险，在终端销售承压的环境下推动店效稳步提升。从终端零售流水看，短期销售略有承压，2025Q3/Q4分别录得中单/低单下滑；门店总量优化，2025年底共6091家，全年净减少26个，其中零售业务净减少59个，批发业务净增加33个，同时渠道调整与效率提升成效显著。电商表现亮眼，2024年收入83.1亿元，同比+10.3%，收入占比提升至29%；2025H1电商收入同比+7.3%，体现极强的业务弹性；童装、细分运动等新兴品类保持稳健增长，为未来业绩形成新支撑点。财务底部夯实，看好盈利修复中长期业绩弹性释放。2021-2024年公司收入CAGR为8.3%，但净利承压，2025H1归母净利同比-11%；毛利率看，2025H1为50.0%，全年预计基本持平或略有改善。下半年预期促销继续，但整体库销比、库存周转等指标优良，但25H2销售费用的密集投放叠加Q4折扣加深，对利润率或构成挤压，预计随折扣趋稳、店型优化以及奥运周期费用杆杆释放，中长期OPM及净利率有望向上。调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级李宁家族年内通过非凡领越累计增持超15亿港元，控股权持续稳固，显示对品牌长期发展及估值修复的强信心。公司当前估值处于历史较低区间，受益于奥运周期与品牌势能提升，估值有望修复；我们调整盈利预测，预计公司25-27年收入分别为291亿、300亿、311亿元人民币，归母净利分别为26.6亿、29.5亿、32.8亿元人民币(原值为26.6亿、27.4亿、29.4亿人民币)，对应PE分别为19/17/15x，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：消费环境波动，行业竞争加剧，渠道调整不及预期，原材料价格波动，手动统计数据存在误差等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2617231562","isCrawlerRequest":true}