Labubu、Molly、星星人：泡泡玛特未来的虚线、实线与“上限”之路

ITBEAR科技资讯03-08

泡泡玛特，这家市值高达3000亿的潮玩企业，始终在资本市场的聚光灯下经历着剧烈的波动。有人将其视为潜力无限的商业巨擘，有人则断言其不过是一场资本游戏。这种分歧直接反映在其股价的剧烈起伏上——从300多港元的高点腰斩至170港元，又迅速反弹至260港元，近期再次跌破210港元。作为一家大型企业，如此大幅度的市值波动在缺乏重大事件支撑的情况下显得尤为反常，而市场对它的估值逻辑也因此陷入混乱。企业的估值...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026030812554697aa2d6d&s=b><strong>ITBEAR科技资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>泡泡玛特，这家市值高达3000亿的潮玩企业，始终在资本市场的聚光灯下经历着剧烈的波动。有人将其视为潜力无限的商业巨擘，有人则断言其不过是一场资本游戏。这种分歧直接反映在其股价的剧烈起伏上——从300多港元的高点腰斩至170港元，又迅速反弹至260港元，近期再次跌破210港元。作为一家大型企业，如此大幅度的市值波动在缺乏重大事件支撑的情况下显得尤为反常，而市场对它的估值逻辑也因此陷入混乱。企业的估值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026030812554697aa2d6d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0359201885.HKD","symbol_name":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) 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Future","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.98,"PMRTY":1.98},"content_text":"泡泡玛特，这家市值高达3000亿的潮玩企业，始终在资本市场的聚光灯下经历着剧烈的波动。有人将其视为潜力无限的商业巨擘，有人则断言其不过是一场资本游戏。这种分歧直接反映在其股价的剧烈起伏上——从300多港元的高点腰斩至170港元，又迅速反弹至260港元，近期再次跌破210港元。作为一家大型企业，如此大幅度的市值波动在缺乏重大事件支撑的情况下显得尤为反常，而市场对它的估值逻辑也因此陷入混乱。企业的估值需要锚点，但泡泡玛特的锚点却始终模糊。Labubu、Molly、星星人这三个IP，或许正是解开其未来命运的三把钥匙。Labubu的爆红曾被视为泡泡玛特的“救世主”，其所在的THE MONSTERS系列收入占比高达34.7%，甚至带动了其他老IP的翻红和海外渠道的增长。然而，这种依赖单一爆款的模式也暗藏风险——Labubu的热度能否持续？下一个超级IP何时出现？这些问题如同达摩克利斯之剑，悬在泡泡玛特的头顶。伯恩斯坦分析师直言，Labubu是泡泡玛特的“光环与支柱”，但目前没有证据表明其他产品线能独立维持吸引力。相比之下，Molly则提供了另一种可能性。这个拥有20年历史的老IP，自2019年爆火以来，仅在2020年因全球线下消费停摆出现收入下滑，其余年份均保持增长，增速最高达105.2%。即便在热度巅峰过后，Molly依然能通过创新产品（如ANGRY Molly、BABY Molly）和Labubu外溢的红利实现二次增长。它的数据表明，潮玩生意的热度或许会消退，但收入却能像《王者荣耀》这样的常青游戏一样稳固。Molly的存在，为泡泡玛特划下了一条底线——即使无法复制Labubu的神话，这家公司仍能依靠老IP的稳健表现生存。而星星人的崛起，则让市场看到了泡泡玛特的另一种潜力。这个IP不仅在国内门店取代Labubu成为C位，甚至在美国市场也引发抢购热潮，部分款式售罄。过去五年，泡泡玛特几乎每年都能推出或翻红一个爆款：2020年的Dimmo、2021年的Skullpanda、2022年的小野、2024年的Crybaby……这种持续输出爆款的能力，让“运气论”逐渐站不住脚。泡泡玛特通过全球渠道网络和庞大的设计师资源，建立了一套试错机制——就像抖音的算法一样，通过规模和数据量优化IP开发流程。尽管2025年推出的57个新IP中只有少数成为爆款，但这种“大力出奇迹”的策略，仍为其系统化生产爆款提供了可能。然而，潮玩行业的本质仍充满不确定性。IP的走红缺乏直观参数，有时一款新品能突然爆火，有时一个IP在某个国家畅销却在全球遇冷。这种“玄学”属性，让泡泡玛特的商业模式始终笼罩在质疑中。但Molly的20年历史证明，潮玩生意不仅可以靠新IP获得想象空间，也能靠老IP吃老本。这种“新旧共存”的模式，或许正是泡泡玛特最性感的部分——它既能在创新中突破，也能在稳健中生存。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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