马斯克再造资本神话？SpaceX IPO临近，股价波动或比特斯拉更猛

金融界03-04

来源：金十数据过去几年，随着SpaceX逐渐蜕变为航天领域的巨头，市场对其兴趣呈指数级增长。但投资者应当预期，在其公开上市之后，股价可能会出现剧烈波动。据彭博社报道，SpaceX最快可能在本月秘密提交IPO申请，并寻求超过1.75万亿美元的估值。公司计划在6月进行IPO，时间可能与马斯克的生日或一次罕见的行星连珠天象相重合。总部位于美国得克萨斯州Starbase的SpaceX，此前在吸收马斯克的...

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SpaceX IPO approaches, stock price may fluctuate more violently than Tesla","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CRSH":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLA":1.94,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLT":0.6},"content_text":"来源：金十数据过去几年，随着SpaceX逐渐蜕变为航天领域的巨头，市场对其兴趣呈指数级增长。但投资者应当预期，在其公开上市之后，股价可能会出现剧烈波动。据彭博社报道，SpaceX最快可能在本月秘密提交IPO申请，并寻求超过1.75万亿美元的估值。公司计划在6月进行IPO，时间可能与马斯克的生日或一次罕见的行星连珠天象相重合。总部位于美国得克萨斯州Starbase的SpaceX，此前在吸收马斯克的人工智能公司xAI后，估值预计约为1.25万亿美元。PitchBook分析师弗朗科·格兰达（Franco Granda）在周二的一份报告中写道，上市后的SpaceX股票表现将类似于特斯拉(TSLA.O)的股票，“但波动性更强”。未来增长预期：Starlink将贡献主要收入PitchBook预计，到2040年SpaceX的收入将达到1500亿美元，经调整利润达到950亿美元。相比之下，公司去年收入最高约为160亿美元，利润约为80亿美元。未来每年约420亿美元的收入可能来自Starlink卫星互联网业务，目前该业务贡献了SpaceX大部分现金流。这一预测并未包含xAI业务。xAI目前现金消耗速度较快，但未来可能从美国国防部获得更多项目。该预测还假设特斯拉与SpaceX不会合并，不过马斯克和一些分析师过去曾提出过这种可能性。马斯克去年11月在X平台上写道：“我的公司，在某种程度上令人惊讶地，正朝着融合的方向发展。”马斯克效应：愿景驱动但时间表常被延迟格兰达表示，投资者从特斯拉身上学到的许多经验，可能同样适用于SpaceX。例如，两家公司都受到马斯克著名的公开乐观主义影响。格兰达举例称，特斯拉曾承诺在2017年底前实现每周生产5000辆汽车，但随后陷入“生产地狱”，未能达成目标。不过当公司最终在2018年年中实现这一里程碑时，股价大幅上涨。SpaceX也经历过类似延误。其Starship超级火箭的研发曾多次遭遇挫折，公司历史上的其他航天器项目也经历过类似情况。马斯克曾将2022年定为向火星发送无人任务的“理想目标”，但到了2026年，这一任务仍需要数年时间才能实现。不过投资者已经逐渐习惯马斯克的时间表具有一定“弹性”。因此，当自动驾驶出租车项目的12月截止日期过去时，投资者并未过度恐慌。随后当马斯克稍晚达成既定目标时，股价随之上涨。格兰达将这种现象称为“信誉账本”，即投资者会自动将延误因素计入预期，但更关注整体愿景。这对SpaceX可能是有利的。该公司最近推迟了火星殖民计划，同时还向监管机构申请发射多达100万台太空数据中心进入轨道，这一计划依赖于Starship项目的进展。SpaceX目前还表示计划在月球上建设一座城市。上市后挑战：更高波动与对马斯克的高度依赖但作为一家上市公司，SpaceX在面对华尔街投资者时，仍必须实现这些目标，同时在xAI和Starlink业务上持续取得进展。因此，市场反应可能会非常剧烈。格兰达预测，如果某些重大消息通常只会引发特斯拉股价10%至15%的波动，那么在SpaceX股票上可能会引发20%至30%的波动。这部分原因在于SpaceX预计公开流通股比例仅约为3.3%。SpaceX股票也可能受益于所谓的“马斯克溢价”。即便特斯拉核心电动汽车业务出现下滑，这种溢价仍帮助其股价保持在较高水平。但这种光环同时也意味着，马斯克旗下公司对他的依赖程度很高。坎托·菲茨杰拉德分析师安德烈斯·谢帕德（Andres Sheppard）此前表示：“如今超过50%的股东会认为，特斯拉就是埃隆，而埃隆就是特斯拉。很多人，甚至可能是多数人，将特斯拉的成功与埃隆的任期直接联系在一起。”特斯拉在年度报告中也提到公司对马斯克的依赖，并警告称，如果马斯克被迫出售部分持股，股价可能会下跌。SpaceX由马斯克在二十多年前创立，目前他持有公司约44%的股份，其对CEO的依赖程度可能同样很高。格兰达表示，来自特斯拉的负面消息很可能会给SpaceX股价带来压力，反之亦然。同时，马斯克的政治立场也曾引发争议，并导致特斯拉销量受到影响。格兰达总结称：“更低的流通股比例、更早期阶段的技术以及高度集中的马斯克风险敞口，这些因素叠加在一起，意味着其波动性可能超过特斯拉历史上已经相当剧烈的波动模式。”\n\n美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\r\n            责任编辑：钟离","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2616805025","isCrawlerRequest":true}