【国联民生海外 | 美股周报】英伟达财报业绩与指引均超预期，谷歌Nano Banana 2正式发布

声鸣海外 Global03-01

报告摘要宏观回顾近期美股市场波动仍大。“AI吞噬论”引发的叙事冲击形成动量回撤，导致市场出现超跌。另一方面，美股市场在NVDA财报超预期、CRM业绩指引保守的业绩变化后，股价走势却截然相反。我们认为主要是由于当前阶段股价对基本面的映射的传递效果在减弱而、对于资金因素的反应在增强。从市场广度看，等权跑赢加权，行业层面也存在明显的涨跌互现，均证明市场并未出现全面恐慌，更像是结构问题。美股科技公司动态...

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2026召开在即，预计采用 LPU方案的Feynman有望发布，整体推理性能有望进一步大幅提升。Salesforce：整体业绩超预期，Agentforce签单客户达到 29,000个。CRM 26Q4 营收达 112 亿美元（同比 +12%），超市场分析师一致预期（111.9亿美元）；非 GAAP 每股收益（EPS）为 3.81 美元，超市场预期的 3.05 美元。本季度末Agentforce 的已签单客户达到 29,000 个。公司预计 FY2027 总营收指引在458亿–462亿美元，管理层预计Agentforce 增长有望持续加速。Snowflake：签下4亿美元史上最大单笔合同，AI持续加速增长。Snowflake 26Q4 营收达 12.8 亿美元，同比 +30%，超市场预期（12.6 亿美元）。调整后EPS为 0.32 美元，显著优于市场共识的 0.27 美元。本季度签下了 4 亿美元 的史上最大单笔合同。年消费超 100 万美元的大客户数达到 733 个，同比 +27%。RPO总额高达 97.7 亿美元，增速 42%。科技行业动态谷歌Nano Banana 2正式发布，响应速度及一致性大幅提升。谷歌在 Gemini App 中上线 Nano Banana 2（技术代号 Gemini 3.1 Flash Image）。该图像模型已全面接入 Gemini App、Google Search 及开发者 API。Nano Banana 2刚一发布，就登上了Artificial Analysis的文生图排行榜的首位。Nano Banana 2 模型结合了此前 Nano Banana Pro 的高阶能力与 Gemini Flash的高速性能。同时增强了对世界的深度理解，利用实时网页搜索获取的信息和图片，因此能够以极高的保真度来反映真实世界的当前状况。OpenAI获得1100亿美元融资。投资者包括英伟达、亚马逊和软银；其中300亿美元来自软银，300亿美元来自英伟达，500亿美元来自亚马逊，投前估值7300亿美元。OpenAI称，随着这轮融资的进行，预计后续还会有更多金融投资者加入。OpenAI与亚马逊的合作，同此前与英伟达的合作有相似之处，算力购买和注资同时进行。投资建议：近期美股科技板块出现明显回调，一方面市场在交易“模型吞噬应用”的逻辑，以 Anthropic 等大模型能力跃迁为代表，担忧应用层商业模式受压；另一方面，尽管 NVIDIA 财报整体超预期，但财报后科技股仍出现下跌，反映资金更偏交易层面的情绪博弈，而非基本面趋势逆转。从财报本身看，算力需求依然强劲——2026年五大云厂CapEx预期已上调至接近7000亿美元（较年初上调约1200亿美元），管理层强调“Compute equals revenues”，推理性能/功耗比直接决定云厂商的单位收入能力，算力投入与收入生成能力呈正相关，体现出中期需求的确定性。从另一视角看，无论是 OpenClaw 持续走红后 token 调用量的显著提升，还是近期 Anthropic 发布 Claude 4.6、Google 推出 Gemini 3.1 等模型在复杂任务与Agent能力上的架构升级，均意味着更高强度的推理负载与更长上下文需求，将进一步放大算力消耗。我们判断，本轮科技股调整更多源于交易拥挤与预期再平衡，我们认为市场或需等待GTC大会给出更明确的技术路线与平台化节奏验证，当芯片、存储与网络的整体演进框架更加明确，市场对算力供给与需求兑现节奏的预期也将重新锚定。建议关注：【NVDA】【MU】【SNDK】【LITE】【INTC】等。风险提示：AI发展不及预期；AI商业化不及预期；宏观经济增长不及预期等。1 美股科技公司动态英伟达FY26Q4财报：业绩与指引均超预期，Blackwell加速放量整体业绩：英伟达FY26Q4营收681.27亿美元，同比增长73%，营收比彭博一致预期超3.24%；毛利率75.2%，超越一致预期（74.7%）；净利润395.52亿美元，同比增长79%，净利润比彭博一致预期超5.48%；调整后每股收益1.62美元，比彭博一致预期超5.77%。分业务看：数据中心业务收入623.1亿美元，同比增长75%，超越彭博一致预期（603.6亿美元）；游戏业务收入37.3亿美元，同比增长47%，不及一致预期（40.1亿美元）；专业可视化业务收入13.21亿美元，同比增长159%，大超一致预期（7.71亿美元）；汽车领域收入6.04亿美元，同比增长6%，OME及其他业务收入1.61亿美元。业绩指引：预计FY27Q1总收入780亿美元（±2%），超越彭博一致预期；预计GAAP和non-GAAP毛利率分别为74.9%和75%（±50bps）。业务进展：1）Blackwell系统已部署近9吉瓦基础设施，且Blackwell系统贡献了约三分之二数据中心收入。2）前五大云厂约占公司数据中心收入50%，但非hyperscaler增长更快。2026年五大云厂CapEx预期已上调至接近7000亿美元（较年初上调1200亿美元）。3）主权AI业务FY26同比增长超3倍，规模突破300亿美元。4）管理层强调“Compute equals revenues”，推理性能/功耗比直接决定云厂商收入能力。5）Rubin平台已在CES发布并开始向客户提供样品。同时GTC 2026召开在即，黄仁勋曾表示几款全新芯片将会发布，所有技术都已逼近极限。预计采用 LPU方案的Feynman有望发布，整体推理性能有望进一步大幅提升。Salesforce FY26Q4业绩： 整体业绩超预期，Agentforce签单客户达到29,000个整体业绩：CRM 26Q4 营收达112 亿美元（同比 +12%），超市场分析师一致预期（111.9亿美元）；非 GAAP 每股收益（EPS）为 3.81 美元，超市场预期的 3.05 美元。FY2026 全年总营收达 415 亿美元。 剩余履约义务（RPO）为 724亿美元，同比 +14%，略超营收增速。Agentforce的新进展：CEO Marc Benioff 宣布，Agentforce 已成为史上增长最快的云产品。本季度末，Agentforce 的已签单客户（Deals）达到 29,000 个，其中生产环境部署的账户环比增长 50%。公司强调：这不只是工具，而是直接提供“按需付费”的自主劳动力（Digital Labor），累计已交付 24 亿次智能体工作单位（AWU）。从“软件商”向“数字劳动力供应商”转型：Data 360为企业提供了 AI 运行所需的“上下文”（Context）。2026财年，Data 360 摄取了112万亿条记录，同比增长114%，其中53万亿条记录是通过零拷贝方式摄取的，同比增长310%，并处理了18TB的非结构化数据。从客户转化看，Agentforce 和 Data 360 第四季度超过 60% 的订单来自现有客户的拓展。业绩指引：公司预计 FY2027 总营收指引在458亿–462亿美元。虽然指引克制，但管理层预计Agentforce增长有望持续加速。Snowflake FY26Q4业绩：签下4亿美元史上最大单笔合同，AI持续加速增长整体业绩：Snowflake 26Q4 营收达 12.8 亿美元，同比 +30%，超市场预期（12.6 亿美元）。调整后每股收益（EPS）为 0.32 美元，显著优于市场共识的 0.27 美元。FY2026 全年产品收入达 44.7 亿美元，展现了极强的业绩韧性。业务进展：1)巨头级订单： 本季度签下了 4 亿美元 的史上最大单笔合同。年消费超 100 万美元的大客户数达到 733 个，同比 +27%。2)订单快速增长： RPO（剩余履约义务）总额高达 97.7 亿美元，增速 42%。3)粘性依旧： NRR（净留存率）稳定在 125%，在企业去库压力下依然维持了极高的应用壁垒。本次业绩会上，最亮眼的是“数据驱动 AI”的全面变现：CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy 宣布 Cortex AI 已成为公司历史上增长最快的产品，目前已有超 4,400 个企业账户投入生产使用。目前已有超过 2,500 家 客户开始使用其 Snowflake Intelligence 智能体（Agent）功能。管理层直言，Snowflake正处于“企业人工智能革命的核心”。告别增长焦虑，迎来高质量扩张：市场此前担心计费模式调整会导致收入放缓，但 Q4 证明了 AI 负载带来的强劲增量消耗。非 GAAP 运营利润率本季达到 11%，且公司预计 FY2027 将提升至 12.5%。Snowflake 正在用利润率的持续扩张回击对其“烧钱模式”的质疑。业绩指引：公司预计27Q1收入将在12.6亿-12.7亿美元（预期12.6亿），2027 全年营收将达 56.6 亿美元（预期55.4亿），指引均高于市场预期。随着 AI Agent 深度介入企业私有数据处理，Snowflake 正在卡位“企业 AI 操作系统”的核心生态位。2 科技行业动态谷歌Nano Banana 2正式发布，响应速度及一致性大幅提升谷歌在 Gemini App 中上线 Nano Banana 2（技术代号 Gemini 3.1 Flash Image）。该图像模型已全面接入 Gemini App、Google Search 及开发者 API。Nano Banana 2刚一发布，就登上了Artificial Analysis的文生图排行榜的首位。Nano Banana 2 模型结合了此前 Nano Banana Pro的高阶能力与 Gemini Flash的高速性能。同时增强了对世界的深度理解，利用实时网页搜索获取的信息和图片，因此能够以极高的保真度来反映真实世界的当前状况。前代Nano Banana（基于Gemini 2.5 Flash）的画质在复杂场景下会有涂抹感，Nano Banana 2 在保持同等响应速度的前提下，支持512px至4K的原始分辨率输出，皮肤纹理、褶皱、远景细节不再主要依赖后期放大来提升清晰度。另一项重要升级体现在主体一致性的显著提升。在同一工作流中，模型最多可实现5个角色特征的一致性保持，以及 14 个对象的高保真稳定输出。这意味着，在漫画创作、品牌角色设定或系列海报制作等场景中，人物面部特征不会在不同画面中出现偏差，服装细节不会无故变化，场景中的物件也不会反复发生形态扭曲。从官方案例来看，不同动物角色在动作与神态变化的情况下，仍能够维持高度一致的形象特征。OpenAI获得1100亿美元融资，投资者包括英伟达、亚马逊和软银OpenAI宣布获得新融资1100亿美元，其中300亿美元来自软银，300亿美元来自英伟达，500亿美元来自亚马逊，投前估值7300亿美元。OpenAI称，随着这轮融资的进行，预计后续还会有更多金融投资者加入。OpenAI将通过AWS基础设施，消耗亚马逊自研芯片Trainium的2吉瓦算力，双方还将面向亚马逊客户开发定制模型。双方的合作协议价值380亿美元，OpenAI和AWS将在8年内将现有的380亿美元多年期协议扩大到1000亿美元。OpenAI表示，亚马逊准备向公司投资的500亿美元将分为两笔，初始投资150亿美元，后续几个月在满足某些条件后再完成另外350亿美元的融资。OpenAI与亚马逊的合作，同此前与英伟达的合作有相似之处，算力购买和注资同时进行。3 本周观点近期美股科技板块出现明显回调，一方面市场在交易“模型吞噬应用”的逻辑，以 Anthropic 等大模型能力跃迁为代表，担忧应用层商业模式受压；另一方面，尽管 NVIDIA 财报整体超预期，但财报后科技股仍出现下跌，反映资金更偏交易层面的情绪博弈，而非基本面趋势逆转。从财报本身看，算力需求依然强劲——2026年五大云厂CapEx预期已上调至接近7000亿美元（较年初上调约1200亿美元），管理层强调“Compute equals revenues”，推理性能/功耗比直接决定云厂商的单位收入能力，算力投入与收入生成能力呈正相关，体现出中期需求的确定性。从另一视角看，无论是 OpenClaw持续走红后 token 调用量的显著提升，还是近期 Anthropic 发布 Claude 4.6、Google 推出 Gemini 3.1 等模型在复杂任务与Agent能力上的架构升级，均意味着更高强度的推理负载与更长上下文需求，将进一步放大算力消耗。我们判断，本轮科技股调整更多源于交易拥挤与预期再平衡，我们认为市场或需等待GTC大会给出更明确的技术路线与平台化节奏验证，当芯片、存储与网络的整体演进框架更加明确，市场对算力供给与需求兑现节奏的预期也将重新锚定。建议关注：【NVDA】【MU】【SNDK】【LITE】【INTC】等。4 风险提示1）AI发展不及预期。AI技术的发展速度和商业价值存在不确定性。一方面，技术突破可能不及预期,导致AI在某些关键领域的应用无法达到理想效果;另一方面，市场需求和应用场景的拓展也可能面临瓶颈，使得AI相关产品和服务的推广和应用受到限制。2）AI商业化不及预期。AI技术的商业化落地面临诸多挑战，市场需求的释放速度和规模存在不确定性。市场对AI应用的认知和接受度可能不及预期，部分企业和消费者对AI技术的实际价值和应用场景认知不足，导致需求释放缓慢。3）宏观经济增长不及预期。当前全球经济增长面临诸多不确定性，若宏观经济增长不及预期，将导致整体市场需求萎缩企业和消费者的投资与消费能力下降。本报告分析师孔蓉 SAC 执业证书编号：S0590525110014樊程安吉 SAC 执业证书编号：S0590525110016赵融SAC 执业证书编号：S0590525120005研究助理赵志远 SAC执业证书编号：S0590126010048重要提示《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》于2017年7月1日起正式实施，通过本微信订阅号/本账号发布的观点和信息仅供国联民生证券的专业投资者参考，完整的投资观点应以国联民生证券股份有限公司（下称“国联民生证券”）发布的完整报告为准。若您并非国联民生证券客户中的专业投资者，为控制投资风险，请取消订阅、接收或使用本订阅号/本账号中的任何信息。本订阅号/本账号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。国联民生证券不会因为关注、收到或阅读本订阅号/本账号推送内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease,dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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