花旗：英伟达业绩影响分析：Blackwell 架构强劲扩张，迈入Rubin周期

Tasha大行投研...03-02

花旗观点英伟达刚刚发布了其 1 月季度财报，并对即将到来的Rubin产品周期给出了积极展望。尽管部分投资者对 Rubin 的量产时间表和初始良率持怀疑态度，但英伟达重申，该芯片已进入大规模量产阶段，系统机架将在 2026 年下半年大幅放量。不过我们认为，2026 年的大部分出货量仍将是 GB200 系统，搭载超过 6 万颗 NVL72 芯片；Rubin 系统将在明年延续强劲增长势头。我们继续看好...

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的量产时间表和初始良率持怀疑态度，但英伟达重申，该芯片已进入大规模量产阶段，系统机架将在 2026 年下半年大幅放量。不过我们认为，2026 年的大部分出货量仍将是 GB200 系统，搭载超过 6 万颗 NVL72 芯片；Rubin 系统将在明年延续强劲增长势头。我们继续看好英伟达供应链中的上游厂商，因其在平均售价（ASP）和规格升级方面表现更优。同时，我们也看好下游的 Delta 和鸿海（Hon Hai）。人工智能增长前景可期英伟达 1 月季度财报表现极为强劲，再次推动 AI 基础设施迈上新台阶。营收创下历史新高，主要由数据中心业务驱动，Blackwell 架构产品在超大规模客户与主权客户中快速放量。管理层强调，全集成 AI 机架等系统级交付在本季度显著加速，需求仍远超供给。重要的是，公司在 1 月季度末的可见度有所提升，为持续增长奠定了基础。其 4 月季度指引也显著高于市场预期。英伟达指出，Blackwell 架构将持续扩张，Rubin 平台也将在早期阶段贡献收入。网络业务预计仍将是关键增长动力，NVLink 与 AI 以太网织物在系统总价值中的占比将持续提升。整体来看，公司对 AI 基础设施需求的结构性而非周期性特征充满信心，这一前景也强化了计算、网络与先进系统架构领域多年的可持续增长轨迹。Vera Rubin 将在 2026 年下半年实现更大规模放量随着新一代英伟达 Rubin GPU 在今年逐步量产，Ultra 芯片则将在 2027 年推出，该公司在今年 CES 上更早地展示了全面集成的 AI 基础设施与工厂级方案。Rubin 平台包含台积电（TSMC）打造的六大芯片架构：Rubin GPU、Vera CPU、NVLink 6/7 交换机、ConnectX-9 超网卡、BlueField-4 DPU，以及 Spectrum-6 以太网交换机。我们预计英伟达将在 3 月的 GTC 活动中公布更多关于其 GPU 产品的细节。值得注意的是，这款 3nm Rubin GPU 将成为首款采用 5.5 倍尺寸 CoWoS 封装、集成 288GB HBM4 内存并提供 22TB/s 带宽的产品。继 Rubin NVL72 之后，我们预计英伟达将利用其量子网络 CPO，连接8 颗NVL576 SuperPod 芯片。更大规模的放量机会或将出现在 2027/2028 年晚些时候的 Rubin Ultra 系列中。我们认为，台积电是 Rubin 系列与 CPO 解决方案的最关键合作伙伴，并正期待其在2026/2027 年为 CPO 提供 40k 和 1k 个 Switch IC 芯片，以及 2026 年总计 700 万颗英伟达 GPU（Blackwell+Rubin）的产能。800V 电源转型 —— 从 Rubin 架构开始英伟达 Rubin 架构的单 GPU 热设计功耗（TDP）有望扩展至 2.3kW。尽管初期 Vera Rubin NVL72 系统可通过现有 48V/54V 标准实现数据中心兼容性，但向 800V 架构的推进在围绕 2027 年推出的 Rubin Ultra 的讨论中愈发清晰。Rubin Ultra 旨在实现显著更高的计算密度，可能扩展为更大规模的每机架 GPU 集群，从而大幅提升机架级功耗。我们同时看到 “Power Sidecar” 方案的推出 —— 一个专用的机架旁置机柜，负责 800V 配电的核心工作。这一架构将繁重的电源转换任务从 GPU 中剥离，而 GPU 本身已在极端热负载下承压，需要采用 Direct-to-Chip 液冷方案。我们认为，Rubin 的放量将推动更复杂的高压协同设计，并看好 Delta 作为电源解决方案的最大受益者，以及联电（Vanguard UMC）从 PMIC 代工业务中获益。液冷价值量将进一步提升英伟达 Vera Rubin NVL72/144 标志着向无风扇结构的结构性转型。这一代产品采用分布式冷却系统，配备托盘级歧管，不仅覆盖 GPU，还覆盖其他组件，相比 GB 系列平台显著扩大了覆盖范围。这种更广泛的覆盖推动了冷板用量和 QD 需求的大幅增长，从而显著提升了每托盘的总价值量。AVC 是英伟达一级冷板参考设计合作伙伴，有望在液冷领域继续占据重要份额。投资偏好：Rubin 周期上游看好台积电、KYEC、胜宏和颀邦，下游看好 Delta 和鸿海在英伟达业绩及展望向好、且即将于3 月举办 GTC 大会的背景下，我们认为积极的市场情绪和盈利催化剂将支撑供应链表现改善。我们相信，对英伟达收入贡献更高的公司，如台积电、KYEC、鸿海、胜宏和颀邦，将持续跑赢市场。我们同时认为，Delta 的电源解决方案有望实现显著的 ASP 提升，从而驱动潜在的盈利上行空间。全文完，感谢您的耐心阅读，请顺手点个\"在看\"吧~","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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