深度绑定英伟达光网络生态，腾景科技有望迎来业绩与估值“戴维斯双击”

港美通讯03-03 11:36

导语：当AI算力的竞争从“GPU数量”蔓延至“网络传输效率”，光通信产业的上游创新正成为解锁大模型训练瓶颈的关键。随着英伟达（NVIDIA）近期宣布重注加码光通信赛道，分别向Lumentum和Coherent（相干公司）投资20亿美元以扩大供应、深化研发并推进美国本土制造，一场围绕光电路交换（OCS）与共封装光学（CPO）的技术革命已然打响。在这场盛宴中，深度融入北美光通信产业链的腾景科技（...

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深厚的产业渊源与北美基因腾景科技的管理团队具备深厚的北美光通信产业背景。公司董事长余洪瑞先生曾在2003年至2014年担任福州高意光学有限公司（现隶属Coherent） 的董事高级副总裁；公司多位核心高管亦出自华科光电（Fabrinet光通信子公司） 及福州高意 。这种履历背景决定了公司自成立起就具备了服务国际一线大厂的品控能力与技术语言。这种长期稳定的合作关系，使得腾景在Lumentum、Coherent的前沿创新项目中深度参与，成为其无源元器件的核心供应商。2. OCS领域的“独家”突破，业绩弹性巨大如果说过去的合作是“铺垫”，那么当下在OCS领域的爆发则是“兑现”。据产业链调研，腾景科技已成为重点客户OCS交换机核心零部件的独家供应商，产品涉及二维准直器阵列以及钒酸钇晶体。订单验证：公司此前已公告收到某客户C子公司总金额为1280万美元（约合8915万元人民币）的二维准直器阵列采购订单 。该产品正是满足下游OCS光交换机厂商对于不同端口数量规格的定制化需求的关键元器件。利润测算：随着AI集群从千卡、万卡向百万卡演进，OCS的需求量将呈现指数级增长。若以市场预期的2026年3万台OCS交换机需求为基准进行测算，考虑到腾景在该领域的独家供应地位以及高附加值晶体元器件的利润率，其在OCS领域的利润弹性有望高达5亿元量级。这对于当前体量的腾景而言，意味着潜在的业绩翻倍甚至更高增长空间。三、历史级资本开支预示订单能见度空前光通信产业属于轻资产且高度定制化行业，企业的固定资产投入通常是未来订单的“晴雨表”。腾景科技近期公告显示，公司2026年度拟向银行或其他金融机构申请预计不超过人民币20亿元的综合授信额度，用于包括流动资金贷款、项目贷款、固定资产抵押贷款等用途 。在当前时点进行如此高级别的资本开支计划（capex），绝非简单的产能扩充，而是针对特定高端产品（如OCS核心器件、CPO用光纤阵列FAU等）的专用产能建设。这表明公司与下游大客户（如Coherent/Lumentum）之间已形成了极强的订单能见度，甚至是签订了中长期供货协议。资本开支的大幅提升，恰恰印证了公司对未来订单“突破历史新高”的强确定性。四、不止于OCS：CPO领域的潜在突破除了OCS这一当前爆发点，市场往往忽略了腾景在CPO领域的布局。随着GPU算力密度提升，板载光学是必然趋势。腾景科技在FAU（光纤阵列单元） 等光互联组件产品上同样具备深厚的技术积累。FAU作为CPO模块中连接外部光纤与内部光引擎的桥梁，对精度和可靠性要求极高。凭借与北美大厂的合作历史，腾景有望在CPO领域复制其在OCS的成功路径，为长期增长奠定第二曲线。五、投资建议与总结核心观点：市场对腾景科技的认知，不应仅停留在“光通信零部件厂商”，而应将其重新定义为 “AI算力光互连核心底座供应商”。英伟达重注投资Lumentum和Coherent，不仅是其供应链本土化的一步，更是对光互连技术路线的一次明确背书。腾景科技凭借与这两家巨头的深度绑定、管理层的产业渊源以及在OCS核心零部件的独家卡位，将直接受益于北美AI数据中心基础设施的建设浪潮。从财务角度看，公司2026年历史级的资本开支预示着订单的爆发；从产品结构看，从低价值的通用元件向高价值量、高壁垒的二维准直器阵列、钒酸钇晶体等核心部件升级，将带来盈利能力（毛利率）的显著提升。在AI算力投资的第三阶段——即从“GPU短缺”转向“网络连接短缺”的阶段，腾景科技有望迎来业绩与估值的“戴维斯双击”。风险提示：技术迭代速度不及预期；下游客户需求波动；产能爬坡进度不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2616439783","isCrawlerRequest":true}