美银高喊中国股市“金属牛”！铝板块首选中国宏桥(01378) 上调目标价至48美元

智通财经03-03

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头美国银行近日发布研报称，在市场波动率抬升的环境下，仍对黄金、铜、铝以及锂等中国股票金属市场保持方向性的强劲牛市立场，并把核心逻辑落在“供给更紧 + 电气化/AI大浪潮带来的结构性需求”，尤其是铜和铝市场预计将持续出现严峻供应赤字，因此即使短期有波动，趋势性框架不改。对应权益资产端，中国股票市场的金属板块“核心推荐”以及金属市场首选股票名单明确给到：紫金矿业、...

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China Hongqiao (01378), the first choice in the aluminum sector, raised its target price to US $48","themeId":"819c7d3579655e4b4cef88ba93389e37","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601600":1.88,"DRAG":0.6,"MCHI":0.6,"ASHR":0.6,"CWEB":0.6,"02600":1.88,"01378":1.96,"ASHS":0.6,"KWEB":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头美国银行近日发布研报称，在市场波动率抬升的环境下，仍对黄金、铜、铝以及锂等中国股票金属市场保持方向性的强劲牛市立场，并把核心逻辑落在“供给更紧 + 电气化/AI大浪潮带来的结构性需求”，尤其是铜和铝市场预计将持续出现严峻供应赤字，因此即使短期有波动，趋势性框架不改。对应权益资产端，中国股票市场的金属板块“核心推荐”以及金属市场首选股票名单明确给到：紫金矿业、紫金黄金、中国铝业(中铝)、中国宏桥(01378)以及华友钴业等热门金属股票。美国银行整体上非常看好中国股市金属板块的结构性机会，该机构的核心逻辑聚焦在“电气化/AI基础设施带来的需求韧性 + 供给约束/产能瓶颈推升利润中枢”，因此在波动上升阶段仍倾向配置金属与资源股票龙头。美国银行策略师团队表示，黄金市场的重点投资逻辑仍然是“牛市支柱仍在”：更弱美元预期、政策/地缘不确定性带来的“战略储备”需求、ETF与强劲央行买盘的结构性支撑，使其认为黄金通往6,000美元/盎司的路径不变，且2026–27年的金价中枢仍在4,900–5,000美元/盎司附近。美银认为铜金属市场部分更“商品驱动”，美银预计2026/27年全球铜供给缺口约50–60万吨，并强调需求端由“Electrification(电气化)”拉动——电网、EV、储能(ESS)以及AI算力基础设施强劲扩张共同托底；对中国市场，他们预计2026年铜需求增长约+2.5%，并认为潜在的政府“补库/储备”也可能成为强劲催化剂。美银最看好中国金属市场的铝板块盈利韧性，该机构把中国市场2026年铝价锚定在23,000元/吨(RMB23k/t)，并认为行业利润有望处于6,000–7,000元/吨的历史高位区间。美银将铝板块牛市背后驱动被拆成五条：(1)中国产能逼近约4,500万吨“天花板”；(2)印尼扩产受制于电力等约束，海外供给爬坡慢；(3)AI数据中心电网、储能、EV带来的需求韧性；(4)铜铝比价>4倍带来材料替代；(5)“为大型AI推理系统供电”的新增负荷与潜在供给出清叠加中国电力成本优势。对应具体的股票配置上，美银策略师团队明确把中铝与中国宏桥列为铝主题板块的首选股票(Top pick)，并上调两者2026年盈利预期，同时给出估值锚：中铝约10x 2026E P/E、约5%股息率；中国宏桥约9x 2026E P/E、约7%股息率。美银对于中国宏桥给出目标价48港元(从此前的45港元这一乐观看涨目标价进一步上调)，核心理由包括：铝价在该机构的预期上调框架下保持坚挺，该公司无与伦比的垂直一体化模式整合使其长期处于全球成本曲线最低区域四分位、结构性高派息(美银研报提到约大于60%派息率、2026年股息率约7%)叠加股票回购支持力度。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"shareholding","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2616396930","isCrawlerRequest":true}