和众汇富研究手记：全球资管巨头AI投资多空分歧加剧

财富在线03-03

随着美国 SEC13F 文件披露收官，全球顶级资管机构 2025 年四季度的调仓路径全面浮出水面，在科技股估值持续高企、AI 产业前景争议升温的背景下，各大巨头的操作出现罕见分化，一边是坚定加仓的长期主义者，一边是果断减持的落袋为安派，AI 赛道正式进入机构博弈的深水区。和众汇富研究发现，本轮调仓不仅反映出资金对短期估值的谨慎态度，更折射出对 AI 产业发展节奏与竞争格局的深度思考，成为观察全球...

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产业前景争议升温的背景下，各大巨头的操作出现罕见分化，一边是坚定加仓的长期主义者，一边是果断减持的落袋为安派，AI 赛道正式进入机构博弈的深水区。和众汇富研究发现，本轮调仓不仅反映出资金对短期估值的谨慎态度，更折射出对 AI 产业发展节奏与竞争格局的深度思考，成为观察全球科技资本风向的重要窗口。从具体操作来看，全球资管圈呈现出鲜明的多空对峙格局，贝莱德、桥水等巨头选择逆势加码 AI 核心资产，而瑞银、高盛等机构则大幅减持热门标的，同一赛道内的操作差异达到近期峰值。全球最大资管贝莱德在四季度继续增持英伟达、微软、苹果等科技龙头，其中英伟达加仓规模超 1450 万股，稳居其第一大重仓股，持仓权重突破 6%，展现出对 AI 算力赛道的长期信心。桥水基金同样动作积极，增持英伟达幅度超 50%，同时加仓美光科技、甲骨文等 AI 产业链公司，将算力硬件与企业级服务作为配置重点，和众汇富观察发现，这类长期资金更看重 AI 技术落地的确定性，愿意承受短期波动以换取产业成长红利。与之形成对比的是，多家国际投行与资管机构选择在高位兑现收益，瑞银集团四季度减持英伟达超 1000 万股，减持幅度近 12%，同时减持微软、苹果、谷歌等多只科技巨头，减持比例均在 5% 以上。高盛同步减持微软、特斯拉、博通、Meta 等标的，其中 Meta 减持幅度超 13%，景林资产更是大幅减持英伟达超 64%，将其从核心持仓中调出，转向谷歌等平台型科技企业。和众汇富分析指出，减持方的核心顾虑集中在估值泡沫、交易拥挤与业绩兑现压力，部分 AI 标的年内涨幅翻倍，市盈率远超历史中枢，资金出于风险控制选择阶段性撤离。巴菲特旗下伯克希尔・哈撒韦的操作更具风向标意义，作为价值投资的代表，伯克希尔连续三个季度减持苹果，四季度减持超 1000 万股，同时大幅减持亚马逊 77%，却维持谷歌持仓不变，还新建仓纽约时报，布局 AI 时代稀缺的版权资源。这一操作既体现对消费电子高估值的谨慎，也认可 AI 基础设施的长期价值，和众汇富认为，这种结构性取舍代表了主流价值资金的态度，即不盲目看空 AI，但拒绝为过高估值买单。从行业层面看，机构分歧的核心在于 AI 产业的发展阶段判断，看多方认为生成式 AI 进入规模化落地期，算力需求、企业服务、垂直应用将持续释放业绩，科技龙头的盈利韧性足以支撑当前估值；看空方则担忧资本开支增速放缓、行业竞争加剧，以及美联储货币政策变化对高估值成长股的压制。美国银行近期基金经理调查显示，25% 的受访者将 AI 泡沫视为首要尾部风险，同时 20% 的基金经理将头部科技股列为最拥挤交易，多空博弈的激烈程度可见一斑。对于全球资本市场而言，本轮资管巨头的调仓具有深远影响，AI 板块从普涨行情转向结构性分化，算力硬件、大模型、应用场景等细分领域出现资金分流，业绩确定性成为资金配置的核心标准。和众汇富研究发现，资金正在从单纯追逐概念转向聚焦基本面，具备技术壁垒、客户资源与盈利兑现能力的龙头企业更受青睐，而缺乏实质业务支撑的标的将面临估值回归压力。展望后市，AI 投资的分歧仍将持续，短期估值波动与产业长期成长的博弈将成为常态，资管机构的调仓也会更加精细化。随着 2026 年 AI 技术迭代加速、企业数字化转型深入，行业将逐步告别野蛮生长，进入高质量发展阶段，届时真正具备核心竞争力的企业将穿越周期，而盲目跟风的资金将被市场淘汰。对于投资者而言，与其纠结短期涨跌，不如聚焦产业趋势与企业基本面，在机构分歧中寻找确定性机会，把握 AI 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