财报前瞻 | 消费越疲软，生意越红火？好市多(COST.US)Q2财报或再证“抗衰退之王”本色

智通财经03-02

智通财经APP获悉，好市多(COST.US)将于美东时间3月5日美股盘后发布第二财季财报，市场普遍预计，该公司Q2营收约为690亿美元，每股收益为4.50美元。好市多：为艰难时期而生的商业模式自触及峰值以来，这家仓储式零售巨头股价随着消费者数据的疲软在过去数月内持续走低。幸运的是，近期资金从科技股轮换出来的趋势，帮助该股止住跌势并推动其股价年初至今反弹约17%。事实上，经济疲软的环境理应成为好市多...

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Costco (COST.US) Q2 financial report may reprove its true nature as the \"king of anti-recession\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"COST":1.97,"COSW":0.6,"COTG":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，好市多(COST.US)将于美东时间3月5日美股盘后发布第二财季财报，市场普遍预计，该公司Q2营收约为690亿美元，每股收益为4.50美元。好市多：为艰难时期而生的商业模式自触及峰值以来，这家仓储式零售巨头股价随着消费者数据的疲软在过去数月内持续走低。幸运的是，近期资金从科技股轮换出来的趋势，帮助该股止住跌势并推动其股价年初至今反弹约17%。事实上，经济疲软的环境理应成为好市多的利好因素，核心原因在于其以极低利润率销售商品而著称，其食品类商品，如烤鸡和标志性的热狗，甚至可作为“引流品”低于成本价销售。正因这一特点广为人知，当消费者在经济压力下感到囊中羞涩时，好市多便能从市场中抢占更多份额。目前，消费者正感受到商店定价带来的压力，整体情绪低迷。多年来通胀率始终高于目标水平，而好市多销售主力这类核心商品，正是去年推动通胀攀升最主要、最核心的因素。这正促使消费者在购物时做出更精明的选择，例如增加在好市多的购买品类和数量。这一点可以从好市多的会员统计数据中得到印证。数据显示，在2014至2021年通胀率约为1.9%的时期，好市多会员数量平均增长率约为5.5%。而在2022至2025年，通胀再度成为全民话题，消费者价格指数年均涨幅约4.4%，好市多会员增速则升至约7%。再加上好市多的王牌——自有品牌Kirkland Signature，一个以“平价高质”闻名的品牌，在当下的消费情绪低迷期成为不可忽视的竞争力。Kirkland普遍由对标大牌的同厂生产商供货，除品牌外几乎无差别(例如Kirkland伏特加由Grey Goose生产，Kirkland咖啡由星巴克(SBUX.US)生产等)。这一点在好市多消费者中众所周知，也是吸引复购、提升客单的重要原因。它是市面上少有的、性价比始终值得入手的平价替代品，也是好市多积累海量消费者好感度的核心资产之一。“消费低迷情绪”是一个当前无法回避的宏观叙事，而好市多正是其显著受益者。只要替代品品质过硬，消费者便愿意放弃大牌产品。Kirkland的市场定位完美契合了这一逻辑。只要这一趋势持续——鉴于美联储在通胀仍高于目标的情况下开始降息，这一趋势似乎短期内看不到尽头——好市多预计将继续受益于消费者为寻求价格缓冲而逃离传统零售店和非会员制大型超市的趋势。好市多Q2业绩前瞻首先需要指出的是，许多市场参与者预计将密切关注好市多关于关税问题的表态。好市多曾是起诉美国政府的原告方之一，最高法院已裁定《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)相关关税违规。尽管公司短期内可能不会提及退税事宜，因为最高法院尚未对此作出裁决(该案已发回下级法院重审)，但一旦提及，将对公司形成重大利好。自去年关税开征以来，好市多已支付巨额关税，因其近三分之一商品为进口商品，退税对市场而言将是备受期待的现金流流入，规模或在5亿至20亿美元之间，只是目前投资者尚不清楚好市多具体缴纳的IEEPA关税金额。好市多1月销售表现强劲，净销售额约210亿美元，同比增长9.3%;本财年前22周(接近半个财年)销售额同比增长8.5%。增长稳健，也符合市场对好市多的普遍预期。不过在财报结果中，有几个方面值得特别留意，如果未能达到或超越预期，可能会引发市场关注。市场始终关注会员增速，若前文提及的增速放缓，市场情绪大概率转冷。这一判断同样适用于会员层级结构及续卡率。以当前趋势来看，预计这些数据不会变差，但也正因预期一致，一旦数据偏低便会引发意外波动。市场对好市多的线上销售增速也寄予厚望，目前其线上增速维持双位数，表现优异。该品类近年来增速迅猛，若出现下滑，也会成为市场的重大利空。好市多很少发布前瞻指引，市场只能参考华尔街预期。投资者期待看到好市多“一如既往”，维持现有增长节奏。好市多就像一台稳健运转的机器，只要能交付出符合预期的成绩，市场大概率会给予正向反馈。财报电话会议中，唯一可能造成显著利空的消息是毛利率承压。好市多本身毛利率已处于低位，若在关税诉讼胜诉后仍无法修复部分毛利，将令市场难以接受。客观而言，当前关税局势依然极不明朗，因为新的关税政策已经出台以取代旧有措施。好市多估值偏高，但已成常态相较于竞争对手，好市多估值仍然偏高。公司市盈率极高，甚至堪比此前尚未大幅回调的科技软件企业。并且，营业利润率高于好市多的同行的预期市盈率大多都要低于好市多。这一估值中包含了巨额的商誉溢价，因为声誉对消费者而言依然至关重要，尤其是在当前的经济环境下。同时，市场也预期好市多具备其他公司所没有的增长能力，能够持续渗透新市场;例如，BJ's 批发俱乐部(BJ.US)仅局限于美国国内市场，而好市多则有可观的海外收入。对于好市多，有一个非常贴切的描述是“确定性资产”，即市场将其视为具备某些固有特质的公司，例如在经济低迷时期总能表现良好——正如本文开篇所述。如果这种“确定性”被打破，例如经济衰退真正来临时，好市多未能如市场预期那样成功吸引消费者，那么其享受的估值溢价就有可能丧失。当前估值溢价中，有一部分无疑是在为“作为衰退保险的股票”这一逻辑买单，而这之所以令人担忧，是因为它依赖于一个投资者完全无法控制的未来结果。结论总体而言，迄今为止的销售数据显示了好市多良好的增长势头，宏观环境也对其有利，这都有助于该公司在第二财季交出积极的答卷。好市多积累的商誉也使其在符合预期时能够维持估值溢价。该股并非“完美定价”，但它的定价确实隐含了“不容有失”的预期。若趋势逆转，市场情绪可能快速转向，抹去今年以来全部涨幅。如今个股因财报出现大幅波动的情况越来越普遍，因此需警惕业绩不及预期的重大风险。当然，任何关于关税退税或未来关税有望降低的表态，都大概率会引发市场积极反应，不过好市多管理层在财报电话会议中对前瞻指引向来偏保守，预计短期内不会释放太多相关信息。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport,preview","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2616388238","isCrawlerRequest":true}