比亚迪蓄力、吉利逆行：2月车市的“温差”到底有多大？

车云网03-03

原创｜LZY 编辑｜Cong1月是每年车市常规的“修生养息期”，2月则因为春节的关系是非常稳定的销量调整期——中国车市在今年1-2月的整体销售表现并未超出预期。大家的账面数字变化都不大，但蕴藏在数字背后的，却是各家为了即将到来的“金三银四”发力的苗头。2026年购置税优惠政策的收紧以及新能源补贴的进一步退坡所带来的影响还在弥散，春节假期消费者们收紧的消费预算也带来了更多的观望。站在现在的时间点上，...

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February?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80175":0.9,"81211":0.6,"BYDDY":1.95,"GELYY":1.93,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"002594":1.95,"01211":1.95,"00175":1.93},"content_text":"原创｜LZY 编辑｜Cong1月是每年车市常规的“修生养息期”，2月则因为春节的关系是非常稳定的销量调整期——中国车市在今年1-2月的整体销售表现并未超出预期。大家的账面数字变化都不大，但蕴藏在数字背后的，却是各家为了即将到来的“金三银四”发力的苗头。2026年购置税优惠政策的收紧以及新能源补贴的进一步退坡所带来的影响还在弥散，春节假期消费者们收紧的消费预算也带来了更多的观望。站在现在的时间点上，去年年底大家冲得有多猛，都需要在今年的第一季度逐步买单。所以，环比普降是刚刚过去的2月主旋律。但就在这片冷峻的报表中，我们依然能看到截然不同的生存姿态： 有人欢喜有人愁，可无论现状如何，都需要等待一个再度爆发的机会。这就是目前中国汽车市场的真实现状。01风向标：比亚迪的“蓄力”与吉利的“逆行”在判断汽车市场销售热度时，我们已经习惯于先看比亚迪和吉利这两家巨头的表现。他们在国内和海外市场都有建树，在一定程度上可以成为中国汽车市场的风向标。可以说，在如今以及未来很长一段“存量竞争”的时间段内，他们两家的防御能力决定了整体市场的下限。比亚迪在2月交出了19万辆的成绩单，其中乘用车销量18.9万辆（纯电79,539辆，插混108,243辆），而海外销售也达到了100,151辆。就此，比亚迪在今年的销量已超过40万。这种规模效应带来的不仅是供应链端的绝对议价权，更给到比亚迪在2026年继续在各方面挤压对手生存空间的底牌。王朝与海洋网的庞大用户基数，比亚迪、腾势、方程豹以及仰望的全价位品牌，这系列的完整布局都稳稳控制着市场的流量入口，为他们应对竞争带来更多策略选择。与此同时，吉利则在2月完成销量20.6万辆。在这其中，新能源的占比已经超过56%，基本实现了吉利从燃油支柱向电驱支柱的平稳转变。而在这样的成绩单里，子品牌极氪功不可没。它们在2月逆势而上，实现了同比和环比的双增长，交付近2.39万辆。另外，在去年成为吉利销量支柱的银河表现依旧坚挺依，不仅如此，吉利银河M7的全球首秀与银河V900的持续放量，预示着吉利正试图在20万级主流家用市场进一步扩容，用多品牌矩阵对抗单一车型的周期性疲软。02风向标：比亚迪的“蓄力”与吉利的“逆行”相比于国内市场的红海博弈，奇瑞在2月展现出了一种截然不同的全球化生存智慧。在刚过去的2月，奇瑞集团总销量超16万辆，其中海外出口高达12.5万辆，同比增长41.5%。这意味着奇瑞已经连续10个月实现了单月出口突破10万辆大关。对奇瑞而言，海外市场已经不是他们的额外增量，而是奇瑞的一个基本盘，是他们应对国内市场竞争的的一大掩体。当国内市场受季节性和政策波动剧烈摇摆时，奇瑞凭借在全球市场的品牌扎根，成功对冲了单一市场的系统性风险。这种“两条腿走路”的模式，让奇瑞的路走得从容许多。类似的，鸿蒙智行则在产品端找到了自己的护城河。他们（包括问界、智界、享界、尊界、尚界）在2月一共交付2.8万辆，同比增长31%。虽然在绝对数量不算特别出众，但鸿蒙智行在高端市场的统治力依然强悍。其中，问界M9在50万级市场的地位稳固，这也说明了鸿蒙智行已经在消费者心中实现了心智认同，在以后的市场竞争中，这种地位将会更加牢不可破。2月的现状可以看作是在为即将到来的新品进行蓄力：随着智界、享界等品牌在不同细分领域的补位，以及2026年全新产品线的定档，鸿蒙智行构建的这个覆盖全价格带的智驾生态已经初见规模。对它而言，销量的短期回调丝毫不是问题，它们通过鸿蒙座舱和干昆智驾所构建的高壁垒生态，还会继续倒逼所有竞争对手重新对标。03阵营分化：有人欢喜有人焦虑在汽车行业，规模大小毫无疑问决定了企业的容错率与战略定力，而现在看起来，这一切在今年会变得更加明确。比如，一直以来在进行攻守和破圈的理想与零跑，目前就处于一种微妙而典型的“博弈”中。理想在2月交付2.64万辆，虽然环比微降，但理想的历史累计交付量已逼近157万。牢牢定位高端用户群体的他们，依靠着稳定的规模已经拥有了在淡季“不降价、不乱阵脚”的资本。理想L9 Livis即将推出，55.98万元的价格本质上是在用顶配车型的“技术溢价”去稳住高端市场的毛利边界。他们为了二季度L9全系换代而进行的战术蓄力的意图其实非常明显，通过持续的AI战略和智驾研发，他们的步调丝毫未现凌乱。与此同时，过去1年势头凶猛的零跑在2月拿下了2.8万辆的成绩，同比增幅11%。和去年寻求突破不同，今年的零跑已经成为了大家对标的对象，而在2月收获相对稳定的增幅，证明了他们正在迈过自己发展中的关键阶段，同时也说明零跑“全域自研+技术平权”的路线依然精准踩在了消费者的痛点上。零跑试图用A10车型锁定10万级智驾市场，以激光雷达降维打击同级对手；同时D19车型作为品牌向上的旗舰，在Q2尝试冲刺高端化。只要能守住2.5万辆以上的月度交付底盘，零跑就有足够的财务积累去支撑他们今年密集的产品爆发期。与之形成鲜明对比的是小鹏与蔚来，数据上不见起色甚至是回调，毫无疑问会让焦虑感逐渐弥漫。小鹏在今年2月的交付辆已经跌破了2万辆大关，仅有1.5万台，同比近乎于腰斩。叠加他们在1月份同样销量不佳，在今年整体55-60万辆的高预期年目标面前，这种低迷的开局显得异常紧绷。刚刚上市的2026款X9纯电版，是小鹏在高端纯电市场维持声量的唯一筹码，在“金三银四”里能否绝地反击，可能关系小鹏今年的命运。而蔚来的情况则是另一番光景。他们单月销量接近2.1万辆，虽然同比仍在增长，但这和蔚来在去年Q2之前始终低迷的销量有关，当时既没有萤火虫加入，也没有蔚来“让价”带来的销量，这一同比增长只是标准太低而形成的结果。可以预见的是，蔚来尝试各种政策来冲击50万辆年销规模门槛的意图并不会改变，而以利润换规模的打法仍然会是他们的主流选择，只是这一系列动作背后所带来的财务压力，自然不言而喻。04静待时机：各品牌的改款博弈与数据回调在其他品牌上，这种欢喜与焦虑并存的趋势也很显而易见，小米汽车在2月同样经历了阵痛。对比2026年1月超过3.9万辆的交付量，小米在2月虽然没有公布具体数字，但官方称交付量将将超过2万，环比下滑约48%；与去年同期相比同比下滑也有大约15.7%。这固然有工厂产能调整和季节性因素，但更多是由于市场对全新一代SU7改款的期待引发了大规模的“持币待购”。对于雷军来说，小米汽车已经完成了从0到1的生存战，但如何在产品改款期实现库存、生产与预期的平衡，避免陷入传统大厂式的“新旧交替危机”，是考验小米组织进化能力的第二道核心考题。在传统车企孵化的新品牌中，东风奕派表现出了强劲的黑马潜质。2月近1.5万辆的成绩已经超越了同门师兄岚图。这说明在15-20万这个竞争最激烈、用户最务实的红海区间，国家队的制造能力一旦结合精准的市场定价和渠道下沉，依然能对造车新势力形成有力的侧翼阻击。岚图则在通过梦想家冠军版的预售试图寻找新的高端增长极。在30万+的MPV混战中，随着小鹏X9、理想MEGA以及极氪009的持续博弈，岚图依旧取得了8358辆的不错成绩，也能看得出国家队在高端化路上的持续前行。在其他品牌和集团方面，长城汽车整体销售72,594辆，同比下降6.79%，其中新能源12,744辆，海外42,675辆；上汽集团在2月的整车销量约为26.95万辆，同比下降8.64%，今年1-2月累计销量约60万辆，同比增加6.76%。截止到目前，仍有相当数量的车企并没有公布2月的数据，对于这样一个被广泛认为是淡季的月份而言，并不罕见。车云小结“春决”即将开启，或是最终战场应该说，2月的数据只是前奏，它在政策变动的极端测试中，逐步展现各家车企最真实的免疫力和抗风险底色。当然，随着3月的到来，2026年的第一场“春季决赛”将会正式开启。这不再只是单纯的价格战，而是集成了交付能力、算法迭代速度和资金韧性的体系化战争。在如此激烈的市场环境里，任何一家车企都经不起一个旺季的失败，在2月的惯性回调后，我们将会等来一场真正的“战争”。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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