国联民生证券：26年春节错期低基数 1月空调出货双位数增长

智通财经03-03

智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，春节错期影响下，2026年1月空调出货同比双位数增长；结合产业在线2月排产增速推算，内外销1-2月累计降幅环比2025Q4均有收窄。展望后续，外销有望随基数走低迎来一阶拐点，内销需求弱平稳叠加成本上行，格局及价格展望可适当积极；25Q3以来龙头外销订单趋势向上，OBM势能强劲，产能布局领先，修复阶段有望好于线性预期。国联民生证券主要观点如下：产业在线发布...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1409444.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，春节错期影响下，2026年1月空调出货同比双位数增长；结合产业在线2月排产增速推算，内外销1-2月累计降幅环比2025Q4均有收窄。展望后续，外销有望随基数走低迎来一阶拐点，内销需求弱平稳叠加成本上行，格局及价格展望可适当积极；25Q3以来龙头外销订单趋势向上，OBM势能强劲，产能布局领先，修复阶段有望好于线性预期。国联民生证券主要观点如下：产业在线发布...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1409444.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B29SXG58.USD","symbol_name":"FSSA CHINA FOCUS \"I\" (USD) 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staggered","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161027":1.5,"601456":1.5,"00921":0.9,"01456":1.5,"06690":0.9,"00300":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，春节错期影响下，2026年1月空调出货同比双位数增长；结合产业在线2月排产增速推算，内外销1-2月累计降幅环比2025Q4均有收窄。展望后续，外销有望随基数走低迎来一阶拐点，内销需求弱平稳叠加成本上行，格局及价格展望可适当积极；25Q3以来龙头外销订单趋势向上，OBM势能强劲，产能布局领先，修复阶段有望好于线性预期。国联民生证券主要观点如下：产业在线发布1月空调数据2026年1月，空调产量1,993万台，同比+19.52%，销量1,985万台，同比+11.92%，其中内销826万台，同比+14.53%，出口1,159万台，同比+10.13%，期末库存1,489万台，同比-10.93%；分厂商销量，格力同比+2.67%(内销+1.67%，出口+4.17%)；美的同比+21.75%(内销+47.50%，出口+6.51%)；海尔同比+2.12%(内销+35.92%，出口-38.37%)；海信同比+19.21%(内销+58.54%，出口+4.55%)。春节错期影响，内销环比改善1月空调内销出货同比+15%，考虑2026及2025春节错期影响工厂排期，较春节时间相对可比的2024及2021年同期，当月内销出货量CAGR分别+6%及+5%；参考产业在线2月排产增速推算，1-2月内销量将同比-12%，而2025Q4为同比-29%，基数走低，降幅收窄，此外1月内销实际增速高于此前排产预期。零售端，当月龙头安装卡2年CAGR正增长，全渠道空调零售量同比+13%，基本同步出货。后续，2025年1-2月内销同比+9%，3/4月分别同比+3%/+4%，淡季基数偏低，以旧换新接续，内销有望平稳改善。厂商节奏分化，CR2同比提升当月美的/格力/海尔空调内销量分别同比+48%/+2%/+36%，海信/奥克斯分别+59%/-42%，春节错期，厂商数据受排期差异影响，建议参考1-2月累计数据。1月美的份额延续12月同比提升趋势，内销出货CR2同比+5.2pct，连续2月提升；海尔增势延续，当月内销出货量份额同比+2.7pct，持续向上。二线中海信当月表现较好，奥克斯/TCL/志高份额同比均有所下行。零售端，格力1月线上零售量份额同比+2.3pct，边际改善延续。成本上涨+需求弱平稳环境利好集中度提升，年内格局展望可适当积极。外销基数不低，一阶拐点渐近当月空调外销同比+10%，2025年同期为+17%；据产业在线2月排产推算，1-2月空调外销量将同比-7%，而同期基数为+31%，基数仍高，但降幅收窄。而3/4月空调外销排产分别同比-7%/+3%，同期基数分别为+15%/持平，随基数走低，一阶拐点渐近。近期，美国关税司法多有波折，预期虽未明朗，压力减轻或仍为基调，美国降息带动尚待兑现，冰洗外销修复趋势已逐步确立，空调则有望在消化基数后，向中高个位数增长中枢收敛；龙头2025Q3以来外销接单持续恢复，OBM增势强劲，修复阶段有望好于线性预期。标的方面当下白电相对估值已至历史低位，高质量高股息，持续推荐美的集团(000333.SZ,00300)、海尔智家(600690.SH,06690)、海信家电(000921.SZ,00921)及格力电器(000651.SZ)。风险提示原材料成本大幅上涨，关税及外需不确定性。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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