保险行业双周报第一期：保险板块阶段回调利率企稳利好估值修复

国泰海通证券03-03

本报告导读：25年险企增配权益资产，偿付能力整体充足；部分险企推出预定利率1.25%分红险产品；节后保险股价阶段回调，依然看好利率企稳背景下低估值保险股的估值修复。投资要点：保险板块调整，利率企稳利好估值修复。2月13日至2月27日，申万保险指数（801194.SI）由1474.31下跌至1419.21，区间跌幅-3.74%。同期沪深300涨跌幅+1.08%，上证指数+1.98%，恒生指数+...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260303192633a69d5ff8&s=b><strong>国泰海通证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本报告导读：25年险企增配权益资产，偿付能力整体充足；部分险企推出预定利率1.25%分红险产品；节后保险股价阶段回调，依然看好利率企稳背景下低估值保险股的估值修复。投资要点：保险板块调整，利率企稳利好估值修复。2月13日至2月27日，申万保险指数（801194.SI）由1474.31下跌至1419.21，区间跌幅-3.74%。同期沪深300涨跌幅+1.08%，上证指数+1.98%，恒生指数+...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260303192633a69d5ff8&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1023057109.AUD","symbol_name":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) 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recovery","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82318":0.6,"601318":0.6,"03145":0.6,"PNGAY":0.6,"HPAD.SI":0.6,"PAImain":0.6,"02318":0.9},"content_text":"本报告导读：25年险企增配权益资产，偿付能力整体充足；部分险企推出预定利率1.25%分红险产品；节后保险股价阶段回调，依然看好利率企稳背景下低估值保险股的估值修复。投资要点：保险板块调整，利率企稳利好估值修复。2月13日至2月27日，申万保险指数（801194.SI）由1474.31下跌至1419.21，区间跌幅-3.74%。同期沪深300涨跌幅+1.08%，上证指数+1.98%，恒生指数+0.24%。我们认为节后包括“AI带来的生产力提升，将导致长期通缩”（来自研究机构CitriniResearch《2028全球智能危机-一来自未来的金融史思想实验》）等叙事，是板块出现大幅下跌的重要催化。在利率整体企稳回升背景下，我们依然看好低估值保险股的估值修复机会。25年保险行业增配权益资产，偿付能力整体充足。1）25年保险行业（“人身险+财险”口径）权益配置显著提升，“股票+基金”较年初提升1.6万亿元，占比提升2.6pt至15.4%；债券增配有所放缓，占比提升0.9pt至50.4%（23/24年分别增配4.4pt/4.1pt），反映部分险企利率择时的投资策略。2）25年四季度末，保险公司平均综合偿付能力充足率为181.1%，核心偿付能力充足率为130.4%，高于100%和50%的监管标准。其中，财产险公司分别为243.5%、212.7%，人身险公司分别为169.3%、115.0%，再保险公司分别为244.6%、212.5%；从已披露偿付能力报告的57家人身险公司、77家财产险公司的数据来看，绝大多数保险公司偿付能力充足，风险可控，但仍有5家未能跨越监管红线，处于不达标状态。3）根据2026年银行保险资产管理业资产配置展望保险机构调查结果，股票和证券投资基金是2026年保险机构普遍看好的境内投资资产，多数保险机构计划小幅增配A股中国太平减持大悦城，平安人寿现董事长人事变动，中英人寿推出预定利率1.25%分红险产品。1）2025年8月至2026年2月期间，太平人寿和太平资产合计持有大悦城2.14亿股，其合计持股比例降至4.99%。2）2月14日，平安人寿宣布，董事长杨铮因退休返聘任职期满拟卸任，其职责将由副董事长兼副总经理蔡霆代行。3）中英人寿新推出分红型终身寿险产品福满佳C（悦享版）终身寿险（分红型），下调预定利率至1.25%。投资建议：负债端看，我们预计居民保险储蓄需求旺盛推动26年开门红景气增长，预定利率调降、分红险转型以及全渠道报行合一的实施将推动行业负债成本的下移。资产端看，26年以来长端利率整体处于1.79%-1.90%区间运行，我们认为长端利率企稳预期下，叠加保险公司优化资产管理平衡配置/交易策略，预计共同盈利改善。维持行业“增持”评级，个股推荐中国平安/中国太保/新华保险/中国财险/中国人寿/中国人民保险集团。风险提示：长端利率下行；权益市场波动；负债成本改善不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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保险行业双周报第一期：保险板块阶段回调 利率企稳利好估值修复

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保险行业双周报第一期：保险板块阶段回调利率企稳利好估值修复