AI“恐高症”蔓延：全球投资者正搜寻一切手段，对冲三年的AI狂热

华尔街见闻02-25

沉睡三年的AI空头正在苏醒。随着人工智能狂热将股市推向令人眩晕的高度，持怀疑态度的投资者正积极寻找获利途径，以应对他们眼中不可避免的市场洗盘。据华尔街日报报道，交易员们正押注科技巨头的巨额AI投资将无法获得对等回报。从做空芯片制造商、做空科技巨头债务，到针对非上市初创企业进行场外对赌，华尔街正在搜寻一切可能的手段，对冲AI狂热带来的潜在风险。这种策略转向反映出市场对AI基础设施建设最终结局的...

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Platforms和微软等巨头的债券。部分交易员偏爱目标AI债务，因为该市场的散户投资者较少，有助于防止出现类似“模因股”的暴涨行情，从而保护空头头寸免受挤压。\n多路出击：从甲骨文到供应链\n在直接做空股票方面，甲骨文成为了空头的核心目标之一。据FactSet数据，截至1月30日，甲骨文超过2%的股份被做空，高于一年前约1.5%的水平。这反映出市场对该公司今年计划筹资多达500亿美元以建设AI基础设施的担忧。\n甲骨文与OpenAI之间价值3000亿美元的算力销售协议，也使其成为做空者的替代标的。“做空甲骨文就是做空OpenAI，”Michael O’Rourke表示。\n与此同时，部分投资者开始针对AI供应链上的衍生企业建立空头头寸。知名做空投资者Jim Chanos近期做空了可再生能源公司Ormat Technologies。该公司近期与谷歌达成协议，为其在内华达州不断扩张的业务提供地热发电。Jim Chanos向客户表示，鉴于高昂的成本，该公司极有可能在此笔交易中亏损。\n针对AI芯片龙头英伟达的做空也开始浮现。Stanphyl Capital Partners的对冲基金经理Mark Spiegel此前做空了英伟达的股票，他预计随着投资者对巨头巨额资本支出的担忧加剧，芯片销售将会放缓。尽管他近期以微弱亏损平仓，但他表示正准备重新建立空头头寸。\n场外对赌与历史阴影\n对于尚未上市的AI核心企业，投资者甚至通过法律合同进行私人对赌。OpenAI在最近一轮融资中的估值达到8300亿美元，并预计于今年晚些时候上市。QVR Advisors的基金经理Benn Eifert已与科技专业人士签订私人合同，对赌OpenAI最终的估值走向。如果OpenAI在首次公开募股一年后估值超过3000亿美元，Benn Eifert将损失数百万美元；若低于该数字，他将获利。\n这种悲观情绪并非孤例。曾成功预测次贷危机的知名做空者Michael Burry，近期已将围绕AI的狂热与早年的互联网泡沫相提并论。\n然而，建立大规模看跌头寸的渠道依然有限。在2008年房地产危机中遭受巨额损失后，银行对于充当大额看跌押注的交易对手变得极其谨慎。当年，John Paulson正是通过做空高风险抵押贷款获利150亿美元。\n此外，AI股票的极度波动性也让许多机构望而却步。Cresset 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