豆包喧嚣，抖音沉默

字母榜02-27

坐拥7亿日活的抖音，在白热化的AI竞争中“隐身”了。今年春节，国内AI行业的竞争空前激烈：字节、阿里、腾讯、智谱、MiniMax、月之暗面等公司发布一系列模型和产品，豆包、元宝、千问、文小言等AI App也挥舞着红包，在C端场景展开正面PK。在这场AI狂欢中，作为App时代的巨无霸，抖音显得有些沉默。春节期间，抖音身为国民App，声量反而不如日活跃用户仅为1/7的豆包。城镇乡村、大街小巷的人们谈论...

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App也挥舞着红包，在C端场景展开正面PK。在这场AI狂欢中，作为App时代的巨无霸，抖音显得有些沉默。春节期间，抖音身为国民App，声量反而不如日活跃用户仅为1/7的豆包。城镇乡村、大街小巷的人们谈论...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8r5OmTBa4Lf\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0980610538.SGD","symbol_name":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8r5OmTBa4Lf","article_id":"2614887855","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614887855","pubTimestamp":1772174700,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fenghuang_stock","name":"凤凰网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"在这场AI狂欢中，作为App时代的巨无霸，抖音显得有些沉默。但与豆包相比，抖音春节前后的AI探索动作确实不大。在密集宣传期拿下用户最关注的新功能，豆包可以毫无压力地做出决定，抖音却牵一发而动全身，很难轻易效仿。近期大红大紫的Seedance 2.0，称得上字节AI今年的第一道大菜，春节前上线豆包、即梦等AI 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App而非“传统”App担纲春节档，同样是腾讯和阿里的选择。腾讯罕见地撒出10亿元现金红包，为长期处于弱势的元宝“拉新”；阿里针锋相对地抛出30亿元福利，并注入淘宝闪购等阿里系资源，力图让千问快马加鞭追上豆包。新BAT选定了新的春节主攻手，折射出“老一辈”国民App与AI时代迎面相撞的尴尬。抖音、微信、淘宝等App是新BAT的中流砥柱，持续贡献海量用户和收入，堪称巨头的生存根基。但随着AI时代到来，新BAT要想在AI赛道拿到新船票，必须把新的AI App做起来，而非对原有App修修补补。身处变革迅速而剧烈的AI时代，如何重新定位、设定航向，是抖音们的共同难题。春节档的灯火阑珊，只不过是这道难题投下的一小块阴影。不过，这并不是说，抖音们与AI时代的接驳就此卡壳。与AI App相比，他们在用户、产品、服务和场景等维度依然握有优势；AI时代的超级入口之争刚刚开始，而国民App仍然有大量机会和可能性。01今年春节，抖音虽然声量比往年小，但并非毫无动作。对于AI行业的新动向，它的跟进速度并不算慢。比如AI社交。国外有所谓“Agent社交平台”、由OpenClaw衍生的Moltbook，国内则是腾讯一马当先，推出了类似微信群的“元宝派”，马化腾在公司年会上亲自“带货”。元宝派的核心功能是把AI Agent拉到群里，成为24小时常驻群友。几乎同一时间，抖音也悄无声息地推出了这样的功能——用户可以选择“开启群聊AI”，在抖音群聊里添加群聊小助手。字母PRO实测发现，抖音群聊小助手相当于简化版的元宝派。用户在群里@群聊AI，可以与其聊天、提问；AI还能主动发言、智能总结，或在新成员入群时，自动推送欢迎语。此外，用户还可以在群里添加其他用户创建的AI分身，从而获得更个性化、专注于某一领域的Agent。但与豆包相比，抖音春节前后的AI探索动作确实不大。2月以来，字节大模型频繁“上新”，陆续发布豆包2.0、视频模型Seedance 2.0和图像模型Seedream 2.0。豆包App也迎来新版本，除了接入Seedance 2.0，还上线“专家模式”，接入豆包大模型2.0 Pro。模型先行、三模齐发，软硬产品随后跟上，最后在春晚上“秀肌肉”，并通过红包升温、扩散——豆包的这套AI组合拳，显然比抖音更加轰轰烈烈。如果说豆包是“AI原住民”，那么抖音就是“AI移民”。基因的差别，不仅决定了两者在捕捉市场机遇时的动作幅度，也让两者的行为边界存在明显不同。例如，豆包接入Seedance 2.0后，由于除夕前后流量过大，它一度暂停了这一功能。在密集宣传期拿下用户最关注的新功能，豆包可以毫无压力地做出决定，抖音却牵一发而动全身，很难轻易效仿。整个春节，抖音的动作集中在传统玩法上，包括春晚竖屏直播、抢红包、送礼品等，还推出了团购App“抖省省”。赶上了AI社交热度的群聊小助手，并不是抖音的营销重点。将视角稍微拉远，字节在AI领域探索多年，相关技术和产品与抖音的结合并不特别紧密。字节AI几度变阵，最终形成豆包为核心的阵型。但无论如何变化，字节的新技术、新模型几乎从未第一时间在抖音落地。近期大红大紫的Seedance 2.0，称得上字节AI今年的第一道大菜，春节前上线豆包、即梦等AI App，抖音并未名列其中。理论上，Seedance 2.0完全可以与抖音高度绑定。同行已经在尝试这条路——早在去年下半年，OpenAI就基于Sora 2构建了一个AI视频社交应用。尽管这款应用没有成功，但视频模型与短视频平台的高度契合不言而喻。但截至目前，抖音并没有摆出全面拥抱Seedance 2.0的架势，即使大量创作者已经使用这款模型生成视频。这固然有内容治理和平台生态方面的考量，但在系出同门的Seedance持续火爆的背景下，抖音或许有些过于“冷淡”。总体来看，抖音春节期间仍然以稳为主，对于AI有所探索，但并不像腾讯那样高举高打。在豆包和Seedance的耀眼光芒下，这样的小动作多少显得不太够看。02豆包是字节必须投注的未来，抖音则要为字节守住现在。两者的潜在冲突，实质上是字节“未来”与“当下”的碰撞。抖音与豆包作为两个时代的入口，不可避免地存在用户时长等方面的潜在竞争。此外，大厂内部的不同板块也存在竞争关系；而豆包正当红，更受集团的青睐。但这种简单的博弈，或许并不是字节-抖音-豆包三角关系的底色。字节这台巨型商业机器的根基就是抖音。无论是业务增长，还是商业利益，字节都需要依靠抖音流量的强运营。尤其是在游戏、教育等板块熄火后，字节对抖音的依赖程度进一步提升。近年来飞速崛起的红果短剧和汽水音乐，背后都离不开抖音的托举。而在财务上，字节去年前三季度净利润据称已达400亿美元，全年有望突破500亿美元，直逼Meta。如此高的利润，与抖音的高毛利润率流量生意密不可分。横向对比，新BAT中，腾讯主要靠游戏赚钱，并非只有微信一条“大腿”；阿里的业务矩阵更是庞大。从这一角度来看，字节的单一业务依赖度，是三巨头中最高的。无论是过去还是现在，字节都无法脱离抖音而规划未来。但AI是未来方向，字节必须把资金和资源逐渐向抖音之外倾斜。当整个集团强推豆包时，抖音作为“大哥”必须提供帮助，而它确实也在豆包崛起过程中发挥了关键作用。但当豆包已经站稳了脚跟、成长为亿级日活App后，字节该如何看待抖音在AI时代的角色？抖音又该如何定位与豆包的关系？至少目前阶段，字节并不打算把AI的船舵交给抖音。它依然要靠豆包和火山引擎沿着to C和to B两条路线快速前进。另一方面，抖音也并没有对豆包这位后起之秀毫无保留。现阶段，抖音App的“含豆量”并不算很高。除了用户可以添加豆包为联系人，豆包在抖音生态内存在感并不算高。豆包各项功能对于抖音的渗透，并没有超出必要的边界；就连刚刚上线的抖音群聊助手，也没有被冠以豆包的名头。相比之下，微信素来“秉公持正”，不肯对腾讯自家业务有所倾斜；即便如此，它也在不同场景全面整合了元宝，比如在搜索框下方显示“问元宝”等。阿里更是把千问大模型的AI能力融入了所有业务条线中，甚至还借助千问App的“AI付”，实现了支付宝的小程序化。抖音作为一个超级App，微信、淘宝拥有的场景和功能，它不仅也有，而且更多。但微信淘宝愿意给自家AI App的，抖音大都不愿意给豆包。比如，抖音具备多种交易功能，包括货架电商、直播带货、即时零售等，完全可以做到类似千问那样的“一句话下单”，在豆包App内实现下单到支付的全流程。但抖音并没有松口，只是允许豆包在问答中嵌入抖音商品链接。新BAT的“现任C位”对潜在的“下一任C位”关上一部分大门，这种“防范”其实在腾讯、阿里也有体现：微信先是允许元宝在朋友圈和微信群撒红包，两天后紧急叫停；千问接入淘宝闪购，却无法购买淘宝主站的商品，必须跳转至站外。即便如此，抖音与豆包的打通程度，显然较两位对手更小。同属字节系大将，两者只是在流量和购物场景上有所联动，距离全方位融合差得远。这种若即若离，是抖音与豆包微妙关系的写照。03抖音为何不愿全力托举豆包？或许，在抖音看来，现在还不是把交接棒递给豆包的时候。AI时代已经到来，用户入口和使用习惯即将发生根本变化，已经成为共识。但下一个超级入口到底是什么，还没有真正见分晓。过去一两年，ChatGPT、豆包这样的原生AI App增长飞快，短时间内就拿下了上亿日活，格外引人注目。但这并不能完全证明，它们一定会取代超级App，成为AI时代的主入口。从绝对体量来看，豆包们距离老牌App还有数量级的差距。而在更关键的功能矩阵和第三方生态上，他们更是差得很远。新BAT的AI App中，至今除了接入大阿里的千问，豆包和元宝的核心功能依然是聊天问答，远不如抖音、微信那样几乎无所不能。对于AI App能否胜任“下一个超级入口”，是不是AI时代的天选之子，整个科技行业也并未形成统一的看法。比如，谷歌手握Gemini这款原生AI App，并没有放弃显得“老旧”的Chrome浏览器。2月初，谷歌宣布Chrome接入Gemini 3，试图将浏览器升级为桌面AI中枢。而Chrome的庞大用户量，让它比Gemini更有成为超级入口的潜质。诞生于PC时代的浏览器尚且拥有一战之力，植根于移动互联网时代的超级App，自然也有机会迎来转机，从App时代的霸主平滑转化为AI超级入口。只不过，还没有任何一家公司完成这一飞跃。抖音或许也在探索自己如何成为超级入口，而这也决定了抖音对于豆包有所保留。对于擅长赛马的字节来说，抖音与豆包的潜在竞争，是更加广义的“赛马”，可以为公司增添一种选择，而非仅仅期待豆包击败所有强敌、笑到最后。更何况，抖音已经占据了众多场景——支付、交易、内容、社交、搜索等，是仅次于微信的场景最全的平台。种类繁多的场景，意味着抖音能够聚拢更多用户，也让它有了更大机会成为超级App。单从场景来说，抖音是远远胜过豆包的。豆包在这一块的优势，并没有技术、产品层面那么大。另一方面，抖音在群聊里直接添加了AI助手，还允许添加用户自制的Agent。相比之下，微信仍然把豆包局限在联系人层面，还没有直接“渗透”到微信群。从这一点来看，抖音对于AI的态度其实比微信更果决。以前AI对于抖音的贡献，主要是创作花式调戏豆包的视频；如今在Seedance 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