百威亚太静待实质性突破

中信证券02-24 18:17

摘要中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在2026年2月13日发布的题为《Awaitingmeaningful progress》的报告，百威亚太公布2025年第四季度业绩后股价承压下行，或受中国业务疲软、管理层对2026年即饮渠道复苏持保守态度及股息计划存疑等多重因素影响。中信里昂指出，餐饮渠道复苏前景仍不明朗，尽管管理层对家庭消费及线上线下融合(O2O)渠道的聚焦获...

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progress》的报告，百威亚太公布2025年第四季度业绩后股价承压下行，或受中国业务疲软、管理层对2026年即饮渠道复苏持保守态度及股息计划存疑等多重因素影响。中信里昂指出，餐饮渠道复苏前景仍不明朗，尽管管理层对家庭消费及 线上线下 融合(O2O)渠道的聚焦获市场认可，但分析认为其复苏将是个渐进过程，且销量回升可能被追加投资与均价下行所抵消。当前仍需等待明确催化因素，即饮或O2O渠道若现超预期进展或带来上行风险，但成效释放仍需时。2025年第四季度业绩回顾：营收及EBITDA基本符合预期，净利润不及预期2025年四季度，百威亚太营收同比下降6.0%至11亿美元(有机增长-4.2%)，基本符合市场预期，主要受中国市场表现疲弱拖累。净亏损达1.05亿美元，因税务支出高于预期而不及市场一致预期。2026年重点关注中国业务趋势，复苏或呈渐进态势投资者密切关注中国即饮渠道潜在复苏可能，但当前分析尚未观测到具有说服力的回暖信号。分析指出，百威亚太在中国市场的销量下滑将逐步收窄，但均价压力或因市场竞争加剧导致的促销投入增加而持续存在。整体来看，分析预计2026年中国市场营收同比持平，而韩国与印度市场的增长将成为集团总营收提升的主要支撑。利润率承压：投资加码与原材料成本上行双重冲击研究显示，2026年百威亚太利润率将面临双重压力：一方面，原材料成本上行(主要受铝价走高驱动)及非即饮渠道与线上线下融合布局的资本开支增加；另一方面，管理层明确将优先保障营收增长而非盈利。分析预计，经调整EBIT利润率将同比微降，但报告净利润有望因有效税率下降实现同比增长-前提是税务支出不再出现一次性冲击。催化因素经济复苏；持续产品升级及提价；夏季有利天气提振啤酒销售；年轻/女性消费群体需求增长及成人饮料市场多元化机遇。投资风险下行风险：行业高端化进程慢于预期；高端市场份额流失；成本通胀超预期。公司概况百威亚太有限公司为百威英博集团(AB InBev)旗下企业。公司从事啤酒生产、进口、营销、分销及销售业务，旗下拥有超过50个啤酒品牌，主要覆盖中国、韩国、印度及越南市场。核心品牌包括百威(Budweiser)、时代啤酒(Stella Artois)、科罗娜(Corona)及贝克(Beck's)等国际品牌，以及本地品牌福佳(Hoegaarden)、凯狮(Cass)、Great Northern及哈尔滨啤酒等本土品牌。业务区域划分为亚太东区与西区，啤酒产品线按定位分为三大类：高端及超高端品牌、核心与核心+品牌、以及大众品牌。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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