博通第一季度业绩前瞻：科技股轮动或引发新一轮非理性抛售

美股研究社02-26

作者Deep Value，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】在博通公司（AVGO）即将发布 2026 财年第一季度财报之际，分析师将下调对该股的评级，原因是自去年 12 月覆盖以来，科技板块（尤其是人工智能领域）的市场情绪并未改善。自那时起，尽管公司增长逻辑基本完好，股价却基本横盘震荡。公司给出的 2026 财年...

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\"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU2272731782.SGD":"Allianz Global Intelligent Cities AM Dis H2-SGD","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU2272731600.USD":"Allianz Global Intelligent Cities AM Dis USD","LU1003077747.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU2242649171.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Broadcom's first quarter results outlook: Technology stock rotation may trigger a new round of irrational selling","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGU":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"AVGO":1.98,"AVGW":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"AVGX":0.6},"content_text":"作者Deep Value，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】在博通公司（AVGO）即将发布 2026 财年第一季度财报之际，分析师将下调对该股的评级，原因是自去年 12 月覆盖以来，科技板块（尤其是人工智能领域）的市场情绪并未改善。自那时起，尽管公司增长逻辑基本完好，股价却基本横盘震荡。公司给出的 2026 财年一季度指引显示，人工智能相关收入将再度实现三位数同比增幅，管理层预计 AI 半导体收入将达到82 亿美元。事实上，一季度总营收指引为191 亿美元，显著高于上一季度财报发布前的市场一致预期（182.7 亿美元）。整体来看，分析师认为公司营收将超出预期，且在今年全球超大规模云厂商资本开支（6700 亿美元）的加持下，业绩指引同样会十分亮眼。分析师此次下调评级，主要与XPU 产品放量带来的利润端压力，以及半导体业务中非 AI 收入增长乏力有关。坦率地说，下调评级的核心原因其实是资金正在撤出科技股，这使得投资者开始揪着最微小的细节恐慌性抛售股票。下图可以直观看到科技股的资金轮动情况：科技板块资金轮动分析师担心内存芯片涨价，可能导致本季度调整后 EBITDA 利润率低于指引的67%。一旦出现这种情况，该股可能再度遭遇两位数跌幅。话虽如此，长期来看分析师坚信这只是短期噪音，毕竟博通的增长故事才刚刚开始。2026财年一季度前瞻我们先从核心问题说起 —— 也就是导致公司 2025 财年四季度财报后股价大跌两位数的关键因素。首先，主流媒体将股价下跌归因于利润率下滑。路透社仅从标题就能看出，这些媒体并未真正理解这家公司。如果他们足够了解，就应该记得公司 CFO 克里斯汀・斯皮尔斯在 2024 年四季度的表态：半导体解决方案部门的毛利率约为 67%，同比下降 220 个基点，主要原因是 AI XPU 产品占比提升。以及 2025 年二季度的表述：出于模型测算目的，我们预计三季度综合毛利率环比将下降约 130 个基点，主要反映 AI 收入中 XPU 产品占比提高。还有 2025 年三季度：出于模型测算目的，我们预计四季度综合毛利率环比将下降约 70 个基点，主要反映 XPU 及无线业务收入占比变化。基于以上表态，分析师坚信投资者其实早就清楚XPU 销量与公司综合毛利率呈反向关系。但即便如此，四季度财报后股价依然大跌两位数。原因何在？分析师认为，半导体业务中非 AI 板块的疲软是抛售的重要推手。该板块在 2025 财年四季度总收入中占比约 26%。具体来看，2025 财年四季度非 AI 半导体收入为 46 亿美元，同比仅增长 2%，且除宽带外的所有终端市场均出现下滑。2026 财年一季度指引中，非 AI 半导体收入预计为 41 亿美元，同比基本持平。这将是下一份财报中需要重点观察的数据。分析师知道你此刻可能会想：市场对博通的叙事一直围绕 AI 展开，尤其是其定制化 AI 加速芯片（ASIC）和 AI 网络产品。但从四季度财报后的表现来看，市场关注点显然发生了偏移。下面分析师来解释原因。2025 财年是博通创纪录的一年，实现销售额 639 亿美元，有机同比增长 24%。其中 AI 业务收入达到 200 亿美元，同比大增 65%，推动半导体部门收入创下约 370 亿美元的历史新高。为更直观体现 AI 业务的增长势头，分析师整理了近两年来半导体部门的收入增速表格。作者整理业绩超预期的核心驱动力来自博通的定制化加速芯片（XPU）业务，在云厂商大力压低推理成本的需求下，该业务同比实现翻倍以上增长。核心客户包括谷歌（Alphabet）和人工智能公司 Anthropic。三季度，博通从 Anthropic 获得一笔 100 亿美元的 TPU Ironwood 机柜订单；四季度，又从同一客户斩获额外 110 亿美元订单，预计 2026 年底交付。截至上一季度，公司 XPU 客户总数已达 5 家，最新一笔为 2026 年底交付的 10 亿美元订单。这也是即将发布的财报中需要重点跟踪的指标。据外界消息，除谷歌和 Anthropic 外，字节跳动可能是另一大客户，市场也传闻 Meta 在客户名单中。至于 OpenAI，博通半导体解决方案集团总裁查理・卡瓦斯在 CNBC 节目中澄清，OpenAI 并非去年三季度那笔 100 亿美元神秘订单的客户。截至目前，OpenAI 仅与博通合作设计自研 AI 芯片，正如卡瓦斯所言：“山姆・奥特曼（OpenAI CEO）还没给我下采购订单。”换言之，相关订单尚未计入公司积压订单。这本身就是一个潜在催化 —— 如果 OpenAI 对博通 XPU 设计满意，后续有望落单。此前在 10 月 13 日，OpenAI 宣布定制的 AI 加速芯片规模达 10GW，计划 2026 年下半年开始投产，2029 年底完成。因此分析师认为，今年上半年公司订单积压量有望回升。作为参考，四季度积压订单总额达 1620 亿美元，环比增长 47%，其中约 730 亿美元与 AI 相关，将在未来 18 个月内确认收入。显然，积压订单也是分析师将在财报中重点跟踪的指标。原因很简单：华尔街正用这一指标构建业绩预测。如下图所示，市场一致预期未来四个季度营收增速将持续加快，从 2026 财年一季度的同比 28%，提升至四季度的 75%。事实上，在公司最近两次财报发布后，营收预期均被上调，尤其是三季度和四季度的预期：此外，根据 CEO 陈福阳（Hock Tan）的表态，公司很可能进一步提升单客户 XPU 采购量，因此上季度 Anthropic 追加 110 亿美元订单这类情况，未来可能再次出现。定制化加速芯片的优势在于，分析师们不必追求一刀切、跨代通用的方案。现在这 5 家客户，每家都能打造专属版本的 XPU 定制加速芯片，用于训练和推理……也就是说，我们会根据不同训练、推理及负载运行需求，打造差异化硬件。美国主流云厂商今年预计投入6700 亿美元资本开支，即便英伟达、AMD 会拿走 AI 芯片投资的大部分份额，分析师依然认为博通将显著受益。顺带一提，撰写本文时，AMD 已与 Meta 达成 6GW 订单，将从 2026 年下半年随着 Instinct MI450 GPU 上市开始交付。风险提示分析师此前已强调，现在再次重申：XPU 放量与利润率下滑的反向关系，市场早已熟知超过一年。但在避险情绪升温的环境下，市场会寻找任何理由卖出股票，尤其是估值比英伟达还贵的标的。从前瞻市盈率看，博通明年市盈率为 32 倍，而英伟达仅 27 倍。因此，非 AI 半导体业务的疲软，以及下图所示的毛利率下滑，都让分析师感到担忧。从业绩指引看，博通预计一季度调整后 EBITDA 利润率为 67%，环比下降 1 个百分点。分析师现在担心实际利润率会低于预期。关注分析师此前博通相关文章的读者应该知道，利润率的主要压力来自内存成本。下表显示，一季度高带宽内存（HBM）价格上涨 80%–85%，分析师认为管理层很可能低估了 HBM 涨价幅度。这也是分析师在财报前下调评级的原因。未来展望简而言之，2026 财年一季度核心指引如下：总营收：191 亿美元，同比增长 28%AI 半导体收入：同比翻倍至 82 亿美元半导体部门收入：增长 50% 至 123 亿美元基础设施软件收入：同比基本持平，为 68 亿美元市场担忧的调整后 EBITDA 利润率：67%有两点让分析师尤为担心：第一是调整后 EBITDA 利润率。在内存涨价、XPU 与利润率反向关系的双重影响下，公司利润端可能不及预期。华尔街预期每股收益（EPS）为 2.02 美元，分析师提醒读者，任何不及预期都可能引发两位数的恐慌性抛售。但如果把眼光放长，12–18 个月周期内，分析师依然看好博通。首先，云厂商今年计划投入 6700 亿美元资本开支；整体来看，分析师认为博通是半导体领域中仅次于英伟达、AMD 的第三大受益方。华尔街预计其营收增速将从一季度的 28%，大幅提速至 2026 财年四季度的 75%，每股收益也预计同步增长。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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