美联储被“债务陷阱”锁死？专家：黄金或“向上崩盘”，金价目标直指1.2万美元

新浪财经02-27

来源：市场资讯（来源：今日金价行情）FX168财经报社(北美)讯 Myrmikan Capital 创始人丹尼尔·奥利弗（Daniel Oliver）周四（2月26日）表示，当前黄金牛市的全球筹码积累阶段已正式结束，取而代之的是由美国信用体系压力驱动的、剧烈波动的第二阶段。在接受 Kitco News 采访时，奥利弗指出，过度杠杆化的私募股权与不断扩张的美国国债正如“夹板”般困住美联储。他解析了...

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Expert: Gold may \"crash upward\", and the gold price target is directed at $12,000","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"06693":0.9,"01787":0.9,"02899":0.9},"content_text":"来源：市场资讯（来源：今日金价行情）FX168财经报社(北美)讯 Myrmikan Capital 创始人丹尼尔·奥利弗（Daniel Oliver）周四（2月26日）表示，当前黄金牛市的全球筹码积累阶段已正式结束，取而代之的是由美国信用体系压力驱动的、剧烈波动的第二阶段。在接受 Kitco News 采访时，奥利弗指出，过度杠杆化的私募股权与不断扩张的美国国债正如“夹板”般困住美联储。他解析了驱动实物黄金和白银价格上涨的底层机制，直指广泛金融体系中的根本性脆弱。目前，美国国家债务已超过 38.5 万亿美元。同时，国会预算办公室预测，到 2036 年，国债的净利息支出将翻倍至 2.1 万亿美元。奥利弗强调，如果算上医疗保险（Medicare）和社保等未拨备负债的净现值，真实的债务负担要沉重得多。他认为，在当前的美元估值下，这些债务在数学上已无法偿还。“每一次巨大的信用泡沫终结后，物价都会崩塌，”奥利弗说。“但（在目前背景下）情况会有所不同——美元计价的金价必须上涨，才能使资产估值逻辑重新变得合理。”这种系统性压力在私人信贷市场表现尤为明显。瑞银（UBS）分析师近期警告，在最坏的情况下，由于 AI 对企业借款人的快速颠覆，私人信贷违约率可能飙升至 15%。奥利弗解释说，2008 年金融危机时，美联储可以通过印钱来重塑房地产市场，但救助私募股权行业则是另一回事。他指出，由于消费需求不足而面临破产的高杠杆公司，无法仅靠向银行系统注入流动性来拯救。“我不认为会出现像 1929 年或 2008 年那样的股市大崩盘，”奥利弗表示。“我预见的是金价‘向上崩盘’（Crash Higher）。”随着宏观经济压力削弱了人们对纸质金融工具的信心，实物金属市场正发生结构性变化。奥利弗观察到，由于担忧供应链中断，制造业正放弃标准的库存模式，转而在工厂直接囤积实物白银，这导致市场可用库存被抽干。同时，奥利弗指出，焦虑的银行正在收紧对冶炼厂和精炼厂的保证金要求，迫使这些机构减少实物金属的处理量。这形成了一个“瓶颈”，限制了黄金流入零售和机构渠道。从历史上看，市场曾迫使央行持有约占其资产负债表三分之一的黄金储备。奥利弗分析称，如果将这一历史比例应用于当前美联储的资产负债表，黄金的隐含价格将大幅提高。“金价必须达到一个能够重新平衡美联储资产负债表的水平。目前，8000 美元能让黄金占比达到三分之一，而达到 12000 美元则能占到约二分之一。”*所有内容仅供参考，不代表今日金价行情立场。我们提供的交易数据及资讯等不构成投资建议和依据，据此操作风险自负。添加到我的小程序，查看每天实时金价","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2614808228","isCrawlerRequest":true}