2026春节消费复盘 | 白酒“茅五”分化，饮料巨头“贴身肉搏”

源头研报哥02-27

摘要：春节长假落幕，消费行业的成色究竟几何？高盛近期组织了一场针对湖南省大型经销商的专家会议，揭示了白酒、乳品及饮料在2026年开春的真实动销与库存现状。在宏观环境与需求分化的当下，这份来自一线的调研报告清晰地传递了一个信号：强者的复苏是“带刺”的。~~白酒板块：茅五转向复苏，腰部品牌“承压”~~2026年春节期间，白酒市场呈现出极强的“马太效应”。贵州茅台：高端需求的压舱石动销超预期：湖南地区...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614800298?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-02-27 16:23","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2614800298","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"2026春节消费复盘 | 白酒“茅五”分化，饮料巨头“贴身肉搏”","media":"源头研报哥","content":"<div>\n<p>摘要：春节长假落幕，消费行业的成色究竟几何？高盛近期组织了一场针对湖南省大型经销商的专家会议，揭示了白酒、乳品及饮料在2026年开春的真实动销与库存现状。在宏观环境与需求分化的当下，这份来自一线的调研报告清晰地传递了一个信号：强者的复苏是“带刺”的。~~白酒板块：茅五转向复苏，腰部品牌“承压”~~2026年春节期间，白酒市场呈现出极强的“马太效应”。贵州茅台：高端需求的压舱石动销超预期：湖南地区...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227163034a725ef12&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2026春节消费复盘 | 白酒“茅五”分化，饮料巨头“贴身肉搏”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2026春节消费复盘 | 白酒“茅五”分化，饮料巨头“贴身肉搏”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-27 16:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227163034a725ef12&s=b><strong>源头研报哥</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：春节长假落幕，消费行业的成色究竟几何？高盛近期组织了一场针对湖南省大型经销商的专家会议，揭示了白酒、乳品及饮料在2026年开春的真实动销与库存现状。在宏观环境与需求分化的当下，这份来自一线的调研报告清晰地传递了一个信号：强者的复苏是“带刺”的。~~白酒板块：茅五转向复苏，腰部品牌“承压”~~2026年春节期间，白酒市场呈现出极强的“马太效应”。贵州茅台：高端需求的压舱石动销超预期：湖南地区...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227163034a725ef12&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1237","symbol_name":"包装食品与肉类","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227163034a725ef12&s=b","article_id":"2614800298","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260227163034a725ef12&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614800298","pubTimestamp":1772180581,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"高盛近期组织了一场针对湖南省大型经销商的专家会议，揭示了白酒、乳品及饮料在2026年开春的真实动销与库存现状。~~白酒板块：茅五转向复苏，腰部品牌“承压”~~2026年春节期间，白酒市场呈现出极强的“马太效应”。渠道变革：茅台计划在2026年精简小型经销商，将配额向头部大商集中。白酒看茅五的确定性，饮料看农夫与东鹏的渠道统治力。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK1237":"包装食品与肉类","00220":"统一企业中国","LU0831093199.SGD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED INCOME \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0630378429.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EQ HD \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU0197773673.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA PACIF EX JAPAN EQ HD \"AS\" (USD) INC","LU0630378692.HKD":"HSBC GIF ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EQ HD \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","02319":"蒙牛乳业","00322":"康师傅控股","BK1549":"食品股","LU0197773160.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA PACIF EX JAPAN EQ HD \"AC\" ACC","IE0003895053.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AD\" USD  ACC","LU0762540952.USD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED INCOME \"AC\" (USD) ACC","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","09980":"东鹏饮料","TCYMF":"Tingyi Cayman Islands Holdings Corp."},"translate_title":"2026 Spring Festival Consumption review | Liquor \"Mao Wu\" is divided, and beverage giants \"fight hand-to-hand\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00322":0.9,"09980":0.9,"00220":0.9,"TCYMF":0.9,"02319":0.9},"content_text":"摘要：春节长假落幕，消费行业的成色究竟几何？高盛近期组织了一场针对湖南省大型经销商的专家会议，揭示了白酒、乳品及饮料在2026年开春的真实动销与库存现状。在宏观环境与需求分化的当下，这份来自一线的调研报告清晰地传递了一个信号：强者的复苏是“带刺”的。~~白酒板块：茅五转向复苏，腰部品牌“承压”~~2026年春节期间，白酒市场呈现出极强的“马太效应”。贵州茅台：高端需求的压舱石动销超预期：湖南地区飞天茅台零售量同比增长超过20%，抵消了非标产品出货控制的影响。量价齐升：春节期间批发价回升至1700元/瓶左右，而经销商库存维持在0.5个月的健康水平。渠道变革：茅台计划在2026年精简小型经销商，将配额向头部大商集中。五粮液：以“性价比”抢占市场份额抢夺：普五凭借更高的“性价比”，在零售端实现了个位数增长，并显著蚕食了国窖1573的市场份额。价格逻辑：在计入激励措施后，普五实际出厂价下探至780-790元，牺牲部分价格红利以换取更稳健的渠道周转（库存约1个月）。其他品牌：普遍疲软泸州老窖：国窖1573面临严峻挑战，零售量同比下滑约30%，主要受困于维持批发价稳定的战略与普五的强势竞争。腰部品牌：洋河、酒鬼酒、舍得及水井坊等品牌，春节期间动销普遍下滑15-20%，库存积压达2.5个月以上。~~乳制品：分化明显，高端胜出~~乳品行业在2026年1月的出货量虽然录得增长，但春节期间的实际零售表现略显平淡。送礼需求走弱：由于替代品竞争和送礼偏好改变，整体零售额轻微下滑。高端乳品领跑：伊利金典、蒙牛特仑苏等高端产品明显优于基础白奶，显示出核心消费群体的韧性。竞争理性化：行业促销趋于理性，渠道库存和产品新鲜度处于健康状态，这为全年的毛利率修复留下了空间。~~饮料行业：农夫山泉的“阵地战”与东鹏的“加速度”~~饮料市场在春节期间的竞争尤为激烈，呈现出明显的格局洗牌态势。水生意：农夫山泉强势清场农夫山泉通过激进的大包装促销策略，出货量翻倍，以此挤压华润怡宝和娃哈哈的市场份额。无糖茶依然是增长引擎，动销同比增长约15%。功能饮料：东鹏饮料持续超车东鹏在湖南地区基本完成20%的增长目标，核心能量饮料增长近15%，“补水啦”增速更是达到约20%。未来看点：专家认为3元一瓶的“倍好茶”（无糖茶）有望借助东鹏的渠道渗透力，成为下一个增长引擎。康统之争：统一（UPC）表现滞后，而康师傅（Tingyi）则基本符合全年的增长预期。~~结语~~从这份一线调研来看，2026年的消费市场已不再是简单的“水大鱼大”，而是“存量竞争、强者恒强”。白酒看茅五的确定性，饮料看农夫与东鹏的渠道统治力。对于投资者而言，关注那些能够通过渠道下沉和产品升级提升“单店产出”的企业，将是2026年的核心胜负手。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2614800298","isCrawlerRequest":true}