春节AI大战复盘：字节防守稳健，阿里进攻坚决，腾讯误判社交

蓝鲸财经02-25

文｜象先志春节档AI大战现在基本落幕。过年前大厂活动力度就很猛，当时想春节后回看下表现，给各家产品从夯到拉排个序。之前有消息说DeepSeek会发布R2，这也是我个人预期最有希望给到夯的选手，可惜R2还是一如既往跳票了。如果以一年前R1的表现作为夯的参考标准，那显然今年没有任何产品够上了这个bar。但今年跟去年区别最大的一点是，去年是DeepSeek一枝独秀，今年更像百花齐放，选手们普遍比较踊跃，...

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resolute, Tencent misjudges social interaction","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABU":0.6,"09988":1.95,"BABW":0.6,"BBYY":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"BABA":1.95,"BABX":0.6,"KBAB":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"TCHmain":0.6,"HTCD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"文｜象先志春节档AI大战现在基本落幕。过年前大厂活动力度就很猛，当时想春节后回看下表现，给各家产品从夯到拉排个序。之前有消息说DeepSeek会发布R2，这也是我个人预期最有希望给到夯的选手，可惜R2还是一如既往跳票了。如果以一年前R1的表现作为夯的参考标准，那显然今年没有任何产品够上了这个bar。但今年跟去年区别最大的一点是，去年是DeepSeek一枝独秀，今年更像百花齐放，选手们普遍比较踊跃，技术和营销两方面都值得讨论，参评素材要丰富很多。下面对BAT御三家的春节档AI大战表现做个简要点评。字节守，阿里攻综合各方面表现看，字节和阿里都是属于能给到顶级的选手。官宣字节拿下春晚的时候，口径上其实说得是火山引擎是主角，豆包打配合。当然后来事实上，爆光资源还是被豆包拿了。根据豆包的数据，用户除夕AI总互动19亿次，生成了超过5000万张新春头像和1亿条拜年祝福。这个数据只能说非常中规中矩，因为过去互联网公司拿下春晚合作后，互动次数动不动就是好几百亿次。但字节提前锁定春晚合作，这个事本身是顶级的预判和卡位。过去几年虽然互联网大厂上春晚的热情有所降低，但春晚仍然是产品宣发的重磅渠道。字节敲定春晚合作的时候，AI的竞争烈度还没那么高，这可能也是当时合作由火山引擎主导的原因。等到春节AI大战开始，春晚这种宣发渠道就变得尤为关键。字节手里有抖音，豆包不缺宣发渠道，但阿里很缺。所以春晚在字节手里，就等于构成了对阿里的战略牵制。千问最终退而求其次冠名“四大卫视”春晚，效果和性价比大概是不及央视春晚的。只是阿里想把预算花出去，可选择的范围并不多，因为字节和腾讯都是对手，两家就控制了大部分的互联网流量。另一个把字节排到顶级的原因是，Seedance 2.0斩获了视频生成领域的SOTA。在创作者和媒体圈，这个模型非常火，甚至出现国外向国内求“反向邀请码”的情况。但KOL的话能看不能信，这群人之前吹可灵吹Veo都是同样的套路。而且客观上说，视频生成模型仍然相对小众，谈不上真正出圈，评判技术实力最核心的指标还是要看语言模型。阿里千问这边今年是应该氪金最多的选手。把阿里排到顶级，不（只）是因为我喝了几杯千问送的奶茶。而是其他人都在整拜年祝福这种烂活的时候，只有阿里真的在考虑如何用AI彻底变革现有的互联网运作模式。从开创性意义上说，千问下单的玩法是有当年做淘宝、做支付宝的影子的，属于风险很高但收益巨大的战略押注。虽然目前千问下单的体验还比较初级，但这是可以随着模型能力提升不断改善的。当然，能够改善到什么程度，最终是否足以向用户提供超越传统模式的价值，这里有很大的不确定性。很多人不看好AI购物这个模式，这很正常。但注意，不要直接把这种悲观联系到千问本身的命运上来。千问春节请客计划是个营销活动，划不划得来要看吸引了多少用户以及后续又有多少留存。千问起步晚了对手这么久，用激进手段整些大活迅速提高存在感是必要的，尤其是从维护团队士气的角度而言。而且AI购物这个事，阿里能在这么短的时间内打通各业务线，组织能力和战斗力都可圈可点。阿里失误的地方，我认为还是错过了央视春晚合作，这是后面签四个卫视补不回来的。新版千问APP是在11月17上线公测的。公测的潜台词就是功能还不完备，体验有待打磨。而火山引擎宣布成为央视春晚是在12月29日，而从立项、谈判到正式敲定合作肯定有个更长的过程。这个时间节奏，千问很难赶得上，主要精力应该还用在功能完善和更新上面。总的来说，字节防的漂亮，阿里攻的坚决，双方是势均力敌的对手，因此都给到顶级的评价。腾讯元宝：AI社交的误判腾讯这个春节档的表现，完全跟BA两家不在一个层次，我个人最多只能给到NPC的评级。据AppGrowing估算，元宝2025年全年投流高达150亿元，仅第三季度投流就达57.63亿元。但QM给出的九月份元宝月活数量只有3200万。难怪小马哥说不如把营销费用省下来给用户发红包，因为元宝这么大手笔投流效果也很有限。元宝春节档有两个动作，10亿红包和元宝派。红包是拉新促活的常规手段，本身倒没有值得说道的地方。但微信生态对元宝拉新大开绿灯，刷屏信息大幅影响用户体验是不折不扣的事实。官方后来在处理元宝和千问拉新时的纠结、扭捏和摇摆，显然很难让外界相信所谓“用户体验第一，一视同仁”的表态。元宝派是另一种问题。社交是腾讯最大的基本盘，腾讯也被视为是以产品见长的公司。但当鹅厂真的以“AI社交”的名义端出元宝派这盘菜的时候，你是很难下咽的，只有期待落空后的无尽失落。唯一的正面意义就是，在不借助微信和QQ体系势能的情况下，既然腾讯自己都只能把AI社交做成这个样子，那AI时代腾讯的社交护城河确实如想象般稳固。2月23日，App Store免费榜下载榜单显示，腾讯元宝已跌出前三十。同时，字节豆包、阿里千问和蚂蚁阿福仍然占据榜单前五。另一方面，元仍然没有解决基模能力不足的问题。晚点最新一篇报道提到，春节前元宝一边研发社交功能“元宝派”，另一边等待接入DeepSeek预计将在春节期间发布的新模型。但基础模型研发是必须要解决的问题。搭开源模型的便车，对腾讯这种级别的公司而言，只能是短期应急的捷径。《电厂》曾摘要整理过腾讯年会的信息，其中提到Martin认为，元宝用户留存和增长做得不好，根本上就是因为混元大模型做的不好，DeepSeek也很难帮助腾讯做特定训练。去年底，腾讯宣布姚顺雨正式加入，担任首席AI科学家，并兼任AI Infra部、大语言模型部负责人。管理层对姚顺雨寄予厚望，并给了很大的权限。姚顺雨接手腾讯AI研发后，首要任务显然就是要提升基础模型研发能力，拿出能与对手头部模型一战的竞品。个人履历上看，姚顺雨博士和OpenAI工作期间，主要研究方向都是智能体，似乎没有多少参与基础大模型训练的经历。考虑到春节期间，元宝表现明显弱于两家竞对，姚顺雨可能需要更快证明自己的能力和价值。不过幸运的是，姚顺雨可能并不一定要通过帮助元宝逆转局面来实现这个目标。微信Agent是板上钉钉的规划，与姚顺雨的专业能力完全匹配，是比元宝大得多的机会。帮元宝翻盘很难，因为对手是字节和阿里。做微信Agent也很难，难在找到一个合理的范式，让龙哥和小马哥们认为已经到了合适的时机。但只要拍板做了，出成绩就是预期之内。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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