“红包后期”，通用大模型更实用或是突围关键？

中时财经02-25

CET FINANCE马年的春节可以说是截至目前含“AI”量最高的一年。腾讯元宝率先发力，提前半个月开始预热，拿出了10亿元真金白银掀起了第一波聊天大模型“抢人大战”。而后千问联合阿里生态系发起了30亿元的消费红包，一度致使奶茶店爆单暂停营业；豆包虽说并未参与预热环节的App下载排位赛，但在央视春晚播出的当晚，节目主持人的口播贯穿整晚，可以说，今年抢AI红包已经代替了支付宝发起的好几年“集福”活动...

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FINANCE马年的春节可以说是截至目前含“AI”量最高的一年。腾讯元宝率先发力，提前半个月开始预热，拿出了10亿元真金白银掀起了第一波聊天大模型“抢人大战”。而后千问联合阿里生态系发起了30亿元的消费红包，一度致使奶茶店爆单暂停营业；豆包虽说并未参与预热环节的App下载排位赛，但在央视春晚播出的当晚，节目主持人的口播贯穿整晚，可以说，今年抢AI红包已经代替了支付宝发起的好几年“集福”活动...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202602251313069541e771&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0608807433.USD","symbol_name":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS DYNAMIC INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202602251313069541e771&s=b","article_id":"2614774242","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202602251313069541e771&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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1撒红包抢的不只是人据豆包方面的资料，中国经济时报·中时财经记者获悉，2月16日春晚当晚，豆包进行生成了超过5000万张新春头像、写下了超过1亿条祝福语等新春活动，AI总互动达19亿次。与此同时，腾讯集团给到中国经济时报·中时财经记者的资料显示，截至2月18日，也就是大年初二，元宝春节红包活动结束之后，元宝日活跃用户（DAU）超5000万，月活跃用户（MAU）为1.14亿。除此之外，2月23日即初七，千问发布数据显示，春节期间，用户在千问上“一句话下单”近2亿次，全国平均每10人就有1人在千问下单。以这些数据来看，这一轮红包营销对于各家App在不同维度都有提升，不过专家们一致的观点认为，这次营销的本质是从“交易驱动”向“智能驱动”的流量逻辑转变。以往支付宝、微信的红包大战核心在于绑定银行卡、抢占支付场景，完成的是“支付工具化”的过程，而今年的AI红包大战，大厂们试图完成的是“AI生活化”的认知重塑。中央财经大学中国互联网经济研究院副院长欧阳日辉接受中国经济时报·中时财经记者采访时表示，春节发放红包这种营销方式的高明之处在于，它把复杂的AI技术藏在了春节这个最接地气的民俗背后，降低了用户接触新技术的门槛。虽然形式上是“撒钱”，但内核是借助节庆的高频互动，让用户习惯通过对话而不是点击App来完成任务，这是在抢占下一代人机交互的入口。“目标已截然不同。”中央财经大学数字经济融合创新发展中心主任陈端则对中国经济时报·中时财经记者说，这场营销旨在完成三件事：第一，降低尝鲜门槛：用最直接的金钱激励，引导数亿用户完成“下载—注册—首次对话”的关键动作，打破“AI很高深”的心理壁垒。第二，收集真实场景数据：海量用户在新春特定场景（拜年、祝福、找活动）下的自然语言交互，构成了训练模型理解中国文化、人情世故的宝贵数据。第三，预装未来生态接口：将大模型App预置为用户手机中的“又一个必备工具”，为后续推送搜索、电商、本地生活等服务埋下伏笔。而网经社电子商务研究中心数字生活分析师陈礼腾认为，从战报数据能看出，行业集中度正在快速提升，头部平台凭借资金、技术、生态形成明显壁垒，中小玩家在通用入口层面的突围难度急剧加大。“未来的竞争不再只看模型参数，而是看谁能把AI 融入日常消费、社交、娱乐等真实场景，谁能更低成本、更高效率地服务海量用户。”PART 2链接生态“留客”是终极路径？需要指出的是，不管大厂在这波红包大战中最终想要达到什么目的，留住通过红包进场的用户至关重要，毕竟通用大模型进阶使用频率、使用人数都至关重要。那到底“红包后期”大厂们能否如愿呢？花旗研报曾提出，只要能让用户在7至10天的高频使用中形成依赖，节后留存率就可能显著高于历史互联网产品。不过也有观点提出，纯靠红包驱动的用户，7日留存率普遍低于20%，30日留存率甚至可能跌破5%。红包只能解决“用户为什么用”的问题，却无法回答“为什么持续用”。小王属于春节期间被红包吸引而来的使用者，他告诉中国经济时报·中时财经记者，各家的红包发放都和使用App联系了起来，虽然有些模板学习了一部分，但是离开了模板使用时还是存在门槛，之后会使用哪家的，可能取决于在实际生活中有没有用处。“当前用户增长高度依赖红包激励，这可能导致‘激励性用户’而非‘价值性用户’。一旦红包停止，大量用户可能迅速流失。关键在于产品能否在红包窗口期内，向用户证明其‘非红包价值’——即AI在解决实际问题、提供独特娱乐或情感陪伴上的不可替代性。如果用户发现大模型只是‘一个会聊天的搜索引擎’，其留存率将不容乐观。”陈端亦指出。欧阳日辉对“留客”给出了时间段分析，他说，本次春节各家主要展示的功能包括生成图片、写祝福语、问答搜索、购物外卖等，使用场景偏生活化与娱乐化，AI提示词使用偏简单，属于轻度日常AI用户功能，“我预计活动结束后1—2月内这类轻度用户会有一个明显的下降。预计3个月后留下的用户将是深度用户，这类用户将AI用在写报告、编程、数据分析等效率提升工作中，掌握了AI提示词的多种用法，将AI视为生产工具，是AI的核心用户。”此时来看，“红包后期”或才是大厂们考验的开始。欧阳日辉指出，大模型不能孤立存在，它必须像“电”一样融入工业和服务业。千问调用淘宝的电商能力、元宝美团的生活服务能力，实际上是将AI从“工具”升级为“连接器”。这种模式不仅解决了大模型自身没有商业闭环的痛点，还能反哺原有生态，通过AI Agent（智能体）重构用户的消费决策路径。但他也强调，虽然目前来看，依托生态做变现是“防守反击”的最稳策略，因为它建立在已成熟的商业基础设施之上。“但要警惕的是，如果过度强调交易转化，可能会损害用户与AI对话的开放性和探索性，让AI沦为纯粹的‘营销号’。如何在‘数用’与‘数资’之间找到平衡，既释放数据价值，又不透支用户体验，是商业化探索中必须严守的底线。”陈端认为，春节红包大战是我国大模型产业从技术驱动转向市场驱动、从实验室走向消费市场的成人礼，它短暂地打开了流量闸门，但真正的考验才刚刚开始：如何将脉冲式的流量转化为可持续的用户习惯，又如何将先进的AI能力转化为坚实的商业价值。“当用户手机里已有2—3个大模型App后，后来者再想通过类似营销突围将成本极高。最终胜出的大模型，很可能不是技术评分最高的，而是最能将技术无缝嵌入一个高频、刚需、可货币化场景闭环的。”陈端表示。理性｜客观｜独到总监制丨王列军    车海刚监制丨陈  波王  彧杨玉洋","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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